LONDON — The U.K. has retaliatory tariffs on iconic U.S. goods including Harley Davidson motorbikes ready to be immediately deployed in case of a trade war with Donald Trump.
The British government has been wargaming how to respond to potential Trump tariffs on U.K. goods, with officials briefing ministers that they can repurpose former EU measures against the U.S. without any need for further investigation.
The U.K. carried over tariffs from the European Union after Brexit that were placed on U.S. goods during Trump’s first term as retaliation to the then-president’s sweeping tariffs on European steel. POLITICO reported last month that the EU has a similar package of measures ready to go this time around.
The U.K. tariffs were still in place when Britain formally left the EU in February 2020, and included quintessentially American products like Jack Daniel’s bourbon, Levi’s jeans and Harley Davidsons.
Current and former government officials told POLITICO that the U.K. can immediately place these tariffs back on the U.S. if Trump delivers on his threat to hit all overseas imports with 10 to 20 percent tariffs without triggering pushback from Britain's trade watchdog.
This can be done without the usual need for an investigation by the independent Trade Remedies Authority, because the tariffs were indefinitely suspended by the British government in 2022 rather than being unwound entirely.
A U.K. government official, granted anonymity because their job did not authorize them to speak freely, said it was too soon to comment on “hypothetical policy positions before Trump has even come into office.”
“We’re not going to get ahead of ourselves and talk about how we should respond to something before there’s something to respond to,” they added.
What is to be done?
Publicly, the U.K. government does not want to discuss the project of a tit-for-tat trade war with the U.S. — even if Trump imposes tariffs on British imports.
Reintroducing tariffs on motorbikes and other goods would likely drag the two countries into a deeper dispute, while also breaking the terms of the deal struck between the U.K. and Biden White House to suspend them in the first place.
“I don’t think speculating about how we should respond before there is anything to respond to is in the U.K.’s interests,” Trade Secretary Jonathan Reynolds told MPs last week. “But to state the obvious, tariffs on U.K. goods entering the U.S. would be a difficult thing for us to have to contend with.”
Inside government, ministers are hoping for the best — even if departments are bracing for the worst.
A Cabinet minister, granted anonymity to speak freely said, U.S. “tariffs are potentially very big for us,” noting: “Trade makes up only about 10 percent of their GDP, but it’s around 30 [percent] for the U.K.”
The U.K.’s first priority is to convince the president-elect not to hit British imports in the first place, they said.
The Cabinet minister also hinted that if Trump does act, the U.K. government would prefer to sort out a deal instead of hitting America with retaliatory measures — as it did the last time around.
John Alty, the former permanent secretary at the Department for International Trade, said: “The government has signaled that it wouldn’t retaliate and it’s an economically sensible position. Is it sensible to apply tariffs to imports? No, it pushes up the cost to your domestic economy — which everyone knows, except apparently those around Donald Trump.”
Reeves’ welcome wagon
Chancellor Rachel Reeves struck a conciliatory tone toward the incoming Trump administration in a speech earlier this month, while also banging the drum for free trade.
Reeves emphasized the importance of “free and open trade,” and said the U.K. and U.S. should “deepen our economic relationship on areas such as emerging technologies.”
“I look forward to working closely with President-elect Trump, and his team, to strengthen our relationship in the years ahead,” she said.
Two Whitehall officials confirmed that the U.K. would try to close a mini-trade deal with a Trump White House on security and technology.
However, a full-fat U.K.-U.S. deal is very unlikely, despite both sides starting negotiations under Trump’s first term.
A U.K. government spokesperson said: “We look forward to working with President-elect Trump in office, including on his policy priorities and to improve U.K.-U.S. trading relations to support businesses on both sides of the Atlantic.”