Seen as an influential swing vote in Hegseth’s embattled confirmation, the decision on whether to support Hegseth pits Ernst’s personal convictions and long-standing advocacy for survivors of military sexual assault against the political pressures of party loyalty — and loyalty to Donald Trump — as a reelection campaign looms.

Hegseth can afford to lose only three Republican votes in the Senate before his nomination would fall apart, assuming Democrats remain unanimously opposed. It’s unclear how many others would take her cue, but her status as the Senate’s only female combat veteran and track record on the issue of military sexual assault gives her added influence and credibility.

When Ernst met with Hegseth in her office on Wednesday, she said the conversation was “frank and thorough,” though the senator declined to share details and sprinted from waiting reporters afterward.

She was similarly tepid on Fox News on Thursday. “A number of our senators, they want to make sure that any allegations have been cleared and that’s why we have to have a very thorough vetting process,” Ernst said. “The vetting will continue, I am certain, through the next month or so until we approach that hearing date.”

It’s not hard to imagine the tension in the room when the two met: Ernst, a retired Iowa National Guard lieutenant colonel with over two decades of service, confronting Hegseth, a former Army National Guard major amid allegations of sexual misconduct, excessive drinking and opposition to women in combat. For Ernst, a vocal advocate for survivors of military sexual trauma, the stakes of this nomination are deeply personal.

It wouldn’t be the first time Ernst has opposed a Pentagon nominee amid sexual misconduct allegations. In 2019, Ernst was the lone Republican to vote against then-Air Force Gen. John Hyten’s confirmation as vice chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, citing his “lack of leadership” in addressing workplace complaints. Hyten, accused of sexual assault by a subordinate, was confirmed by a wide bipartisan margin after investigations deemed the allegations unsubstantiated.

Meanwhile, Trump has been considering Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis or Trump’s pick for national security adviser, Rep. Mike Waltz (R-Fla.) as replacement for Hegseth. However, Republican and Democratic senators have said Ernst herself, while not necessarily aligned with Trump, would be a shoo-in for the upper chamber.

“My understanding is [Trump] has been calling people about Ron,” Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.) said in a brief interview. “I hear Joni’s name, and that should certainly be the easiest confirmation — and she’d be more than competent.”

The Federalist, a conservative outlet, on Wednesday reported that unnamed “Trump World sources” are accusing Ernst of waging an “‘aggressive’ personal jihad against Hegseth.” The sources claim Ernst has called Trump, threatening to rally female senators against Hegseth’s nomination if it isn’t withdrawn and consider her as a replacement.

“Washington’s noisy rumor mill just continues churning,” a spokesperson for Ernst’s office said. “As part of the confirmation process, Ernst was glad to sit down with Pete Hegseth for a frank and productive conversation, appreciates his service, and will continue with the vetting process.”

Trump allies, meanwhile, have made it clear that a vote against Hegseth could have significant consequences for Ernst’s 2026 reelection bid. In Iowa, where Trump enjoys strong support, a perceived break with him could prove damaging.

Ernst has in recent days visited Mar-a-Lago and embraced a Trump effort to find ways to slash government spending, co-led by Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy. She founded a Senate DOGE Caucus to work with their so-called Department of Government Efficiency to find cuts.

Whether all that matters is unclear.

“If Joni votes no, she’s going to have a hard time with her reelection campaign,” said one GOP senator, noting that during any floor vote Hegseth, Trump “will be taking names.”