While the valley saw its first snowflakes late last week, more snow will be expected by next weekend. That’s the easy part of the forecast. Unfortunately, there is still some uncertainty about a storm system that will move eastward across the country early this week and could play a role in our weather as we go into the Thanksgiving holiday Thursday.

Sunday evening computer data showing two possible solutions

Computer model data takes current weather and atmospheric patterns and then uses mathematical formulas based on natural constants and the laws of thermodynamics to simulate future conditions. There are two scenarios that are current possibilities for the storm for Thanksgiving.

First, one model solution (the GFS American Model) takes two pieces of energy from the upper atmosphere and keeps them separate. This solution keeps most of the precipitation as rain to our south on Thanksgiving and is the weaker of the two solutions.

Meanwhile, the European computer model takes the same two pieces of energy in the jet stream and phases them together into one as the week goes on. This creates a stronger solution and brings the risk of rain and snow to the Youngstown area for Thanksgiving.

The Bottom Line

Varying solutions on storm systems 3-4 days out are not uncommon in meteorology. What does this mean for you? This means checking back for updates as the two pieces of jet energy materialize and the forecast becomes more clear.

Prepare for the potential for some type of precipitation on your Thanksgiving holiday. However, the chances for impactful snowfall accumulation disrupting your Thanksgiving plans is decreasing here at home. If you are traveling this holiday week, there are a few storm systems that will affect the country.

Regardless if this storm brings us rain, snow, both, or neither, the forecast turns cold this weekend and next week and more snow chances will return.

For winter weather lovers, this means the potential for some lake-effect snow, and with colder temperatures looking to stick around into early and possibly mid-December, the chances of some snow returning to the area will increase soon.