Forecasters are warily watching the Caribbean for the next hurricane threat
Posted on 09/19/2024
The tropics are again quiet, but they may not be for long. There are increasing signs that a tropical disturbance may develop in the Caribbean next week, and forecasters are already eyeing the Gulf of Mexico as one potential destination for a storm.
It’s been only two days since an unnamed “potential tropical cyclone” dumped upward of 20 inches of rain on Carolina Beach, N.C. Otherwise, tropical activity has flatlined again, with the Atlantic eerily quiet during a time that’s ordinarily peak season.
Philip Klotzbach, a hurricane researcher at Colorado State University, projects a likelihood of “normal” activity for the next two weeks.
The season got off to a rambunctious start when Beryl became the earliest Category 5 on record in the Atlantic. It swept through the Lesser Antilles on July 1 before curving into the Gulf, slamming Houston on July 8 as a Category 1. Two other low-end hurricanes — Debby and Francine — have hit the Gulf Coast, too; six out of the seven named storms since the summer have struck land.
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Despite the number of storm landfalls, the season has remained statistically tame. We’ve now dipped below average for Accumulated Cyclone Energy, a measure of all the storms’ energy. And while a below-average peak season is in and of itself not remarkable, it does come as a surprise considering nearly unanimous predictions of an anomalously active or hyperactive season.
Experts still aren’t sure exactly why the Atlantic has been so quiet — but as October nears, it’s usually time to begin eyeing systems that more frequently develop in the Caribbean or Gulf. That may be in the offing next week.
What we know
In late September and early October, something called the CAG, or Central American Gyre, becomes more pronounced. It’s a very broad region of counterclockwise spin at the mid- to upper levels of the atmosphere that hovers over the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean and Central America. This year, the CAG may be strengthened a little by the temperature change between the cooling waters of the eastern Pacific and the exceptional warmth in the Atlantic.
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Sometimes, pieces of the CAG’s broad spin consolidate and provide the seedlings of a hurricane.
At this point, we know a few things about next week’s setup:
The CAG will be present and established early next week across the western Caribbean, Honduras, Guatemala and the Yucatán Peninsula. That means there will be an area of broad spin.
Weather models suggest some of that spin will pinch off. If that happens, it will probably be in the northwestern Caribbean.
Water temperatures are abnormally warm, and record-setting in some areas. There is ample “oceanic heat content” to help any nascent storm intensify.
But from there, many questions arise. How quickly would a system organize before being steered toward land? Would it have time to grow into a hurricane? And where would it go? Many computer models project a Caribbean storm would get drawn north into the Gulf. However, the model forecasts are so far into the future that they are not particularly reliable.
Predicting how CAG-generated storms will move is tricky. That’s because the storms are largely steered by the overarching spin of the CAG itself. In other words, whatever storm does or doesn’t form will be embedded within an atmospheric merry-go-round of sorts before eventually breaking out of the CAG’s flow. That added layer of complexity makes track forecasting difficult.
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At this point, all we can confidently say is that the western Caribbean is our next spot to watch for any potentially impactful systems. It’s difficult to have a storm form in the Caribbean and not hit someone — the question is who.
The National Hurricane Center has outlined that zone as having a 20 percent chance of development, while the Climate Prediction Center places those odds at more than 60 percent. The Hurricane Center’s odds will probably creep upward as we get closer to the weekend, when weather models have a better handle on the ingredients at play.
For now, it’s a game of waiting and watching.
It’s been only two days since an unnamed “potential tropical cyclone” dumped upward of 20 inches of rain on Carolina Beach, N.C. Otherwise, tropical activity has flatlined again, with the Atlantic eerily quiet during a time that’s ordinarily peak season.
Philip Klotzbach, a hurricane researcher at Colorado State University, projects a likelihood of “normal” activity for the next two weeks.
The season got off to a rambunctious start when Beryl became the earliest Category 5 on record in the Atlantic. It swept through the Lesser Antilles on July 1 before curving into the Gulf, slamming Houston on July 8 as a Category 1. Two other low-end hurricanes — Debby and Francine — have hit the Gulf Coast, too; six out of the seven named storms since the summer have struck land.
Advertisement
Despite the number of storm landfalls, the season has remained statistically tame. We’ve now dipped below average for Accumulated Cyclone Energy, a measure of all the storms’ energy. And while a below-average peak season is in and of itself not remarkable, it does come as a surprise considering nearly unanimous predictions of an anomalously active or hyperactive season.
Experts still aren’t sure exactly why the Atlantic has been so quiet — but as October nears, it’s usually time to begin eyeing systems that more frequently develop in the Caribbean or Gulf. That may be in the offing next week.
What we know
In late September and early October, something called the CAG, or Central American Gyre, becomes more pronounced. It’s a very broad region of counterclockwise spin at the mid- to upper levels of the atmosphere that hovers over the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean and Central America. This year, the CAG may be strengthened a little by the temperature change between the cooling waters of the eastern Pacific and the exceptional warmth in the Atlantic.
Advertisement
Sometimes, pieces of the CAG’s broad spin consolidate and provide the seedlings of a hurricane.
At this point, we know a few things about next week’s setup:
The CAG will be present and established early next week across the western Caribbean, Honduras, Guatemala and the Yucatán Peninsula. That means there will be an area of broad spin.
Weather models suggest some of that spin will pinch off. If that happens, it will probably be in the northwestern Caribbean.
Water temperatures are abnormally warm, and record-setting in some areas. There is ample “oceanic heat content” to help any nascent storm intensify.
But from there, many questions arise. How quickly would a system organize before being steered toward land? Would it have time to grow into a hurricane? And where would it go? Many computer models project a Caribbean storm would get drawn north into the Gulf. However, the model forecasts are so far into the future that they are not particularly reliable.
Predicting how CAG-generated storms will move is tricky. That’s because the storms are largely steered by the overarching spin of the CAG itself. In other words, whatever storm does or doesn’t form will be embedded within an atmospheric merry-go-round of sorts before eventually breaking out of the CAG’s flow. That added layer of complexity makes track forecasting difficult.
Advertisement
At this point, all we can confidently say is that the western Caribbean is our next spot to watch for any potentially impactful systems. It’s difficult to have a storm form in the Caribbean and not hit someone — the question is who.
The National Hurricane Center has outlined that zone as having a 20 percent chance of development, while the Climate Prediction Center places those odds at more than 60 percent. The Hurricane Center’s odds will probably creep upward as we get closer to the weekend, when weather models have a better handle on the ingredients at play.
For now, it’s a game of waiting and watching.
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