Numerous Republican lawmakers told Donald Trump and his team that they believe his pick to be attorney general, controversial Rep. Matt Gaetz, has little chance of being confirmed, according to multiple Senate Republican and people around Trump. And they’re privately hoping Trump doesn’t make them walk the plank.

That message, according to people who were granted anonymity to discuss the sensitive issue, has been delivered to the president-elect himself, his future White House chief of staff, Susie Wiles, and to Gaetz’s unofficial “sherpa,” Vice President-elect JD Vance. And it appears to be at least partially sinking in.

Knowing how toxic a character they are dealing with, Senate Republicans are worried about getting tarnished by the process. They fear that senators up for reelection in 2026, including Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) could face a MAGA primary challenge if they oppose his nomination — while possibly kissing their seats goodbye in a general election if they back him.

It’s not just the politically vulnerable who are fretting. There’s a fear that Trump is going to waste precious political capital trying to push Gaetz through when he could instead be working on advancing other, more feasible nominations — not to mention his governing agenda. Consider, they say, just how distracting Gaetz confirmation hearings will be as Trump moves to dismantle Joe Biden’s regulatory and legislative legacy.

Trump has indicated that he thinks Gaetz “has less than even odds of being confirmed by the Senate,” the New York Times reported last night. But Trump, they add, still wants a fight. He’s been asking Senate Republicans to give his pick “a shot” and argued that Gaetz is just the man to fix the Justice Department, Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.) told reporters on the Hill yesterday.

“That was kind of the whole conversation,” Cramer said. “He’s the disrupter that the department needs. That’s the bottom line. And he doesn’t know that anybody else really will be.”

Early this morning, notably, Trump’s most important ally, Elon Musk, posted support for Gaetz on his X platform: “He is the Judge Dredd America needs to clean up a corrupt system and put powerful bad actors in prison. Gaetz will be our Hammer of Justice.” He added that the misconduct allegations amounted to “less than nothing.”

Despite the lobbying campaign, things are not looking peachy. Nearly a dozen Senate Republicans refused to say they’d back Gaetz when prodded by POLITICO last night. Those who are speaking aren’t being particularly kind.

“He’s got an uphill climb,” Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) told reporters.

Republicans are also warning Trump that the fight will be messy. While incoming Senate Judiciary Chair Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) dodged questions about whether he’d try to obtain the unpublished House Ethics Committee report or speak to the women alleging misconduct, we’re told from GOP sources in the chamber that panel Republicans will likely need to do both.

The Judiciary Committee, after all, requires all nominees to undergo extensive FBI background investigations that would turn up anything in the House Ethics report, which is said to be damning — and then some. Republicans as well as Democrats will be scrutinizing whether Gaetz has paid women for sex, slept with a minor or used illegal drugs, as has been alleged against him.

Gaetz has firmly denied these allegations, casting them as part of a “deep state” plot against him, but he appears to be on a collision course with his accusers.