A shift in Tropical Depression 19's track has significantly impacted meteorologists' predictions about its potential to develop into Hurricane Sara, according to the lasted information from AccuWeather.
Floridians should continue keeping an eye on the system, which is now set to make landfall in Central America later this week. Should it survive a long trek through the Yucatan Peninsula, Sara's latest timeline still shows an expected hook back into the Gulf of Mexico, where it could regain some strength and target Florida.
Hurricane Sara, should it form, is no longer expected to become a major hurricane as its new path deviates over a large chunk of the Yucatan Peninsula, causing the storm to shed any of the strength it builds prior to landfall.
That's good news for Florida residents, but people living in the northern parts of Honduras and Nicaragua will see torrential rainfall and a significant risk of flash flooding and mudslides as Tropical Depression 19 passes over the region this weekend.
"Should the [rainstorm] become a hurricane, it would be the 12th of the season, which is a testament to the supercharged nature of the season, where the historical average is seven hurricanes," AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said.
Where is Tropical Depression 19 now?
Tropical Depression is meandering in the western Caribbean Sea, where it's expected to continue moving slowly over the northern coast of Honduras.
It's about 225 miles east-southeast of Guanaja, Honduras, and 65 miles northeast of Cabo Gracias a Dios, on the Nicaragua and Honduras border.
It's moving west at 14 mph, with maximum sustained winds at 35 mph.
When will we see Tropical Storm and Hurricane Sara?
Tropical Storm Sara is expected to form later today, according to the latest information from the National Hurricane Center. Whether we see Hurricane Sara will depend on whether the storm's center is able to remain offshore of Nicaragua and Honduras over the next couple of days.
If Hurricane Sara does form, its intensity won't be anywhere near as strong as originally thought after the storm's path deviated further westward than originally thought. Its new path will have it spend a considerable amount of time over land, where it will weaken.
Hurricane Sara and its path to Florida are now in limbo
AccuWeather still strongly recommends that Floridians keep an eye on Tropical Depression 19 because there are multiple scenarios where the storm emerges from Central America, rebuilds strength in the Gulf of Mexico and beelines toward the Florida Peninsula.
"Should the current tropical depression ramp up after it emerges over the Gulf of Mexico and become a hurricane, it would be the fourth hurricane this season to hit Florida," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dave Houk said, "If so, that will surpass the record of three landfalls in one season from 2004."
What's still up in the air is how Tropical Depression 19 will handle its path over land, partly due to uncertainty surrounding whether the storm's center will pass over land as it moves across Honduras later this week.
Once Tropical Storm Sara forms later today, it will move westward and skirt the northern coastline of Honduras. If Sara's center stays over water, it could continue to intensify and have a greater chance of surviving its trip through the Yucatan Peninsula.
Sara's center moving over land would decrease those chances.
What impacts could Tropical Depression 19/Tropical Storm Sara have on Florida?
Regardless of how Tropical Depression 19 develops, it could impact Florida by the middle of next week. As of now, it's too early to say whether that will happen or to what degree, according to the NHC.
Should Sara survive its trek over Central America, regaining its strength will be a slow process as waters over the Gulf aren't as warm as the western Caribbean.
Sara storm track
Sara's path will be contingent on a number of factors, including a dome of high pressure along the southern Atlantic coast of the U.S. and an approaching cold front.
"There are multiple scenarios with the [rainstorm] in the Caribbean that are tied to the speed of development and track early on that could affect land areas with landfall and direct impacts," DaSilva said.
So far, that area of pressure has held its ground and the cold front has been a bit slower to reach the area, which has pushed the storm further toward Central America.
Tropical Depression 19 is expected to make landfall near Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula over the weekend, where it could diminish or swing toward the Gulf of Mexico.
Hurricane Sara/Tropical Depression 19 spaghetti models
Pensacola area weather for the week of Nov. 11-17
The Pensacola area can expect to see a wet week followed by cooler, dryer conditions. Temperatures will fluctuate with highs in the 70s-80s and lows from the mid-50s to upper 40s as we get closer to the end of the week, according to the National Weather Service Office Mobile/Pensacola.
Thursday, Nov. 14 — Thursday will be partly sunny, gradually becoming sunny. The high will hit about 77 degrees, and the low will be 53. Thursday night will be mostly clear.
Friday, Nov. 15 — Friday will be sunny with a high near 73 and a low around 52.
Saturday, Nov. 16 — Saturday will be sunny, with a high near 72 degrees and a low near 56.
Sunday, Nov. 17 — Sunday will also be sunny, with a high near 76 degrees and a low near 61.
Monday, Nov. 18 — Monday will be mostly sunny, with a high near 77 degrees and a low around 68.
Tuesday, Nov. 19 — There's a 50% chance of showers on Tuesday. The high will hit 77 degrees, while the low will hit nearly 63.
Wednesday — Wednesday will see a 30% chance of showers. It will be mostly sunny, with a high near 73 degrees.
Pensacola Beach weather and flags
Pensacola Beach will see moderate to high rip currents through Friday, according to the National Weather Service Office Mobile/Pensacola.
Current flag conditions at Pensacola Beach: Double red flag
Current Water temperature: 76 degrees.
Tomorrow's beach flag forecast: 50% red flag, 50% double red flag
Pensacola Beach rip current forecast: