Tropical Depression Nineteen has developed in the Caribbean Sea and is likely to become Tropical Storm Sara soon. The storm will produce a potentially catastrophic flood threat in Central America through the weekend, but its longer-term forecast is uncertain.

Latest status: Tropical Depression Nineteen is located 250 miles east of Isla Guanaja, Honduras, and is tracking west at 15 mph. Maximum sustained winds are 35 mph.

W​atches and warnings issued: Tropical storm and hurricane alerts have been issued in parts of Central America in the areas shaded in the map below. A watch means conditions are possible within 48 hours, while a warning means conditions are expected within 36 hours.

Strength, track in Caribbean: With relatively low wind shear and record-warm Caribbean water for mid-November, this system is forecast to become a strong tropical storm or possibly a hurricane as it tracks near Central America late this week.

Its Caribbean track scenarios range from a slightly more northwest track staying over the water to hugging the coast or moving inland over Honduras then into Belize or Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. The inland track scenario could eventually lead to the demise of this system, but the forecast is uncertain.

One danger, regardless: Future Sara will stall or drift for a few days while near Central America Thursday into this weekend. This slow crawl, regardless of its wind intensity, could produce prolific rainfall with potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Up to 30 inches of rain could fall over parts of northern Honduras. Other parts of Central America from Belize to Nicaragua could see up to 15 inches of rainfall from Sara.

What about the Gulf next week: Future Sara's land interaction with Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula means the longer-term forecast is highly uncertain.

Forecast models suggest it would then get shoved eastward toward Florida by Wednesday ahead of a strong cold front arriving from the Plains and Mississippi Valley. What form Sara takes during that trek could range from a weakened remnant that enhances rainfall along the cold front to a still intact named storm.

Changes to the forecast are likely in the coming days, so interests in the western Caribbean and Florida should monitor this situation closely. Check back with us at weather.com and The Weather Channel app for updates to this forecast in the days ahead.

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Typical November Tropical Activity

Hurricane season winds down during November, but that doesn’t mean we won’t see storms. This November has already produced Rafael.

In the satellite era – since 1966 – November has produced an average of one storm every one to two years and one hurricane every two to three years.

More often, parts of the Caribbean and Central America have taken hard hits from November hurricanes.

If a storm does develop in November, it's usually in the western Caribbean Sea or either the southwestern or central Atlantic.

This is because environmental factors are better suited for development. Wind shear is normally pretty low, cold fronts usually haven’t made it this far south and water temperatures are still fairly warm. All of these factors can help support storm formation.