The National Hurricane Center expects the season’s next tropical depression or storm to form in the Caribbean soon, and forecast models predict it will intensify into a hurricane and threaten Florida next week.

Forecasters in the Tampa Bay area, which is still recovering from hurricanes Helene and Milton, said it’s too early to tell where the storm will go but urged residents to keep an eye on forecasts.

The National Weather Service’s Tampa Bay office posted on social media Wednesday morning that it is “TOO EARLY to determine what, if any, (impacts) across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and Florida Panhandle” will be.

“Residents and visitors should continue to monitor the forecast for updates,” the post states.

As of the hurricane center’s 7 a.m. tropical outlook, the broad area of low pressure over the central Caribbean Sea was producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms.

“Environmental conditions are conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of days while the system moves slowly westward into the western Caribbean Sea,” forecasters said. “Afterward, further development is likely while the disturbance meanders over the western Caribbean Sea through the weekend.”

The system, whether it develops or not, is expected to dump rain on Jamaica and then turn slowly to the northwest by early next week as it moves into the western Caribbean and approaches Central America. It’s then forecast to move toward Mexico’s Yucatan peninsula approaching the Gulf of Mexico.

The hurricane center gives it a 90% chance to develop in the next two to seven days, and it could become Tropical Storm Sara.

It officially became Invest 99-L on Tuesday prompting the spate of long-term forecast models into action that look beyond seven days. The majority of those show it could intensify to hurricane strength and make its way to Florida by the middle of next week.

The models’ intensity range as of Wednesday morning varies with some expecting it to approach major hurricane strength as it approaches the Florida peninsula.

Several of the model paths range from the Big Bend area down to South Florida nearing the coast Tuesday and making landfall on Wednesday.

The hurricane center won’t begin forecasting a projected path until it becomes at least a tropical depression, and then will only forecast out five days.

If it does turn and strike Florida, it could become the fourth named storm to hit the state’s Gulf Coast this hurricane season following hurricanes Debby, Helene and Milton.

The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season has had 17 named storms so far, 11 of which became hurricanes, with five of those growing into major hurricanes of Category 3 strength or stronger.

The season runs from June 1-Nov. 30.

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