Another Caribbean Late-Season Tropical Storm Will Form
Posted on 11/12/2024
A tropical depression is likely to form in the western Caribbean by the end of the week and will then intensify into the season's 18th named storm, Sara.
Latest status: The broad area of low pressure that will spur this tropical development is located in the Caribbean Sea. It is now being referred to as Invest 99L, a naming convention used by the National Hurricane Center to identify features they are monitoring for potential future development.
(MORE: What Is An Invest?)
The NHC has scheduled the first Hurricane Hunter flight mission into Invest 99L for Wednesday afternoon.
At any rate, this low will likely form into a tropical depression somewhere in the red-shaded area in the map below once it becomes better defined in the next few days, according to the NHC.
Possible future track, strength: Computer model forecast guidance indicates this system could become Tropical Storm Sara soon after first becoming a depression. And with relatively low wind shear and record warm Caribbean water for mid-November, Sara could ramp up to a hurricane late this week in the western Caribbean Sea.
Its future track is complicated and uncertain, and likely to change in the coming days, so check back with us at weather.com and The Weather Channel app for updates.
Sara could approach the Caribbean coast of Honduras or Nicaragua late this week, bringing heavy rain and wind. It could even stall or drift east for a few days while near Central America. It could even move inland over Central America and spin down a bit, but still produce potentially prolific rainfall, with potentially life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.
That could bring Sara near the Yucatan Peninsula or western Cuba, then into the Gulf of Mexico by next Tuesday. It then is expected to speed up and make a sharp turn to the east, which could bring it across parts of Florida or Cuba around next Wednesday.
Interests in the western Caribbean and Florida should monitor this forecast closely.
(For even more granular weather data tracking in your area, view your 15-minute details forecast in our Premium Pro experience.)
Typical November Tropical Activity
Hurricane season winds down during November, but that doesn’t mean we won’t see storms. This November has already produced Rafael.
In the satellite era – since 1966 – November has produced an average of one storm every one to two years and one hurricane every two to three years.
More often, parts of the Caribbean and Central America have taken hard hits from November hurricanes.
If a storm does develop in November, it's usually in the western Caribbean Sea or either the southwestern or central Atlantic.
This is because environmental factors are better suited for development. Wind shear is normally pretty low, cold fronts usually haven’t made it this far south and water temperatures are still fairly warm. All of these factors can help support storm formation.
Latest status: The broad area of low pressure that will spur this tropical development is located in the Caribbean Sea. It is now being referred to as Invest 99L, a naming convention used by the National Hurricane Center to identify features they are monitoring for potential future development.
(MORE: What Is An Invest?)
The NHC has scheduled the first Hurricane Hunter flight mission into Invest 99L for Wednesday afternoon.
At any rate, this low will likely form into a tropical depression somewhere in the red-shaded area in the map below once it becomes better defined in the next few days, according to the NHC.
Possible future track, strength: Computer model forecast guidance indicates this system could become Tropical Storm Sara soon after first becoming a depression. And with relatively low wind shear and record warm Caribbean water for mid-November, Sara could ramp up to a hurricane late this week in the western Caribbean Sea.
Its future track is complicated and uncertain, and likely to change in the coming days, so check back with us at weather.com and The Weather Channel app for updates.
Sara could approach the Caribbean coast of Honduras or Nicaragua late this week, bringing heavy rain and wind. It could even stall or drift east for a few days while near Central America. It could even move inland over Central America and spin down a bit, but still produce potentially prolific rainfall, with potentially life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.
That could bring Sara near the Yucatan Peninsula or western Cuba, then into the Gulf of Mexico by next Tuesday. It then is expected to speed up and make a sharp turn to the east, which could bring it across parts of Florida or Cuba around next Wednesday.
Interests in the western Caribbean and Florida should monitor this forecast closely.
(For even more granular weather data tracking in your area, view your 15-minute details forecast in our Premium Pro experience.)
Typical November Tropical Activity
Hurricane season winds down during November, but that doesn’t mean we won’t see storms. This November has already produced Rafael.
In the satellite era – since 1966 – November has produced an average of one storm every one to two years and one hurricane every two to three years.
More often, parts of the Caribbean and Central America have taken hard hits from November hurricanes.
If a storm does develop in November, it's usually in the western Caribbean Sea or either the southwestern or central Atlantic.
This is because environmental factors are better suited for development. Wind shear is normally pretty low, cold fronts usually haven’t made it this far south and water temperatures are still fairly warm. All of these factors can help support storm formation.
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