Trump’s Cabinet picks could be complicated by GOP math in the House
Trump’s Cabinet picks could be complicated by GOP math in the House
    Posted on 11/12/2024
Plenty of House Republicans are privately jockeying for President-elect Donald Trump’s Cabinet. There’s one big problem: Speaker Mike Johnson can’t afford to lose their votes in the next Congress.

Trump on Monday named long-time loyalist New York Rep. Elise Stefanik as UN ambassador and asked Florida Rep. Mike Waltz to serve as his national security adviser.

At least a dozen more House members — including Armed Services Chairman Mike Rogers and Transportation Chairman Sam Graves — have been discussed as other picks.

But even as the House GOP conference remains one of his strongest bases of support in Washington, the Trump team won’t be able to poach many more of those lawmakers without risking Johnson losing control of what could be another slim majority in 2025. CNN has not yet projected control of the chamber.

“I think we have some really qualified people. But I wouldn’t want to drop us down to a one, two (seat) majority tactically,” said Rep. Kelly Armstrong, who is leaving Congress in January to become North Dakota governor.

“We have a lot of talent. There’s a lot of people who would be really, really good at this stuff,” he said. But, he added, referring to the speaker: “You have to give Mike some room to operate.”

After Republicans flipped the Senate last week, the exact makeup of the incoming Congress is still unclear. Johnson and his leadership team are confident they will hold onto their narrow House majority, but the question on most Republicans’ minds is how big their margin will be — an outcome that could determine Trump’s ability to further poach from their ranks.

With the selection of Stefanik, that would already be one fewer vote for Johnson in early 2025. And if Waltz accepts the national security adviser role, that’d reduce GOP numbers even further. Both lawmakers represent safe Republican districts, but their seats wouldn’t be filled right away.

“I have 10 colleagues who think they’re going to the Cabinet,” one House GOP lawmaker quipped, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal dynamics. “If we’ve got a four-seat minority, you can let one or two go. But you’re not going to let three or four go.”

Inside the House GOP, many lawmakers and senior aides have long assumed Stefanik would go to the Cabinet. She and Texas Rep. Ronny Jackson, Trump’s former physician, are considered to have some of the tightest relationships between Trump and the House GOP.

Waltz, a combat-decorated Green Beret who served in Afghanistan, the Middle East and Africa, is a Trump loyalist but was also a policy adviser in the George W. Bush administration.

And there are several other Republicans close to Trump privately eager to join his second Cabinet.

In Florida alone, roughly a quarter of the state’s congressional delegation has been floated. Besides Waltz, Reps. Matt Gaetz, Brian Mast, Byron Donalds, Carlos Gimenez and Greg Steube have all been mentioned as potential picks. And privately, Reps. Anna Paulina Luna and Cory Mills have also expressed interest, according to a Florida GOP source.

There is one option: Trump could poach from the list of House Republicans already planning to leave Congress in 2025. That includes Rep. Garret Graves of Louisiana, who has been floated for Transportation secretary, as well as Rep. Matt Rosendale of Montana, who has been discussed as an option to lead the Department of Veterans Affairs.

Trump also has options in the Senate, with CNN reporting Monday evening that he’s likely to pick Florida Sen. Marco Rubio for secretary of state. But there, too, his team is limited by the math. With CNN not yet projecting races in Pennsylvania and Arizona, Republicans will have at least 52 seats in the chamber.

A half-dozen GOP senators have been discussed as possible nominees, including Sens. Bill Hagerty of Tennessee and Mike Lee of Utah. At least two, Sens. Tom Cotton of Arkansas and Eric Schmitt of Missouri, have taken their names out of consideration.
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