SAN FRANCISCO — London Breed is about to join a growing club: Democratic mayors who’ve been ousted by voters fed up with their cities’ post-pandemic struggles.
The incumbent mayor of San Francisco lost Tuesday’s election to Daniel Lurie, a Levi’s heir and nonprofit founder, by more than 12 points. She has led the city for over six years as it battled against surges in deaths from drug overdoses, brazen retail theft, widespread homelessness and a decline in population as newly remote workers fanned out to other parts of the state and country.
The city has started to bounce back from its post-Covid hangover, but it wasn’t enough for voters. Her ouster speaks to the difficulty mayors face amid a widespread sense of lawlessness in downtown centers — despite falling crime and overdose statistics. Last year, former Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot finished third place in her reelection fight. Portland Mayor Ted Wheeler opted not to run for another term this year.
In Oakland, voters forced Mayor Sheng Thao, another Democrat, out of office after just two years.
“Being the mayor of an urban center after a pandemic has been one of the hardest jobs in America,” said Todd David, a member of Breed’s inner circle of advisers. “Certain races — they are not set up to be won.”
In the end, the San Francisco election wasn’t even close. Lurie tapped into residents’ frustrations and cast himself as a change agent — a message that he and his family members spent roughly $10 million to send to every corner of the 800,000-person city.
Breed conceded the race to Lurie on Thursday afternoon, after the latest ballot count showed Lurie holding a formidable lead.
Across the San Francisco Bay, Thao conceded the recall effort late Friday. But many began writing her political obituary days earlier — the culmination of years of frustration over rising crime rates.
Conservative pundits and President-elect Donald Trump have long painted a dark picture of San Francisco, blaming its deep-seated problems on the Democrats in charge. But — as with the recall of its progressive district attorney in 2022 — Breed’s loss was a revolt from progressive-leaning voters that ultimately brought her down.
Tyler Law, Lurie’s top consultant, said he tapped into voters’ prevailing sentiment with his message about being a City Hall outsider — a first-time candidate who’s ready to make a clean break from the city’s establishment.
“He really embodied the change that San Franciscans were calling out for,” Law said of the mayor-elect, a moderate Democrat.
Lurie performed well in neighborhoods across the city, but he was particularly strong on the west side of San Francisco, where Asian Americans make up one of the city’s largest voting blocs. Throughout his campaign, he spoke about the community’s concerns with crime and street conditions.
Breed, also a moderate by San Francisco standards, tried to counter negative narratives with statistics about how the city’s response in the last few years has improved. She also emphasized her experience leading through a global pandemic — a tumultuous period that led two other prominent Democratic mayors, Jenny Durkan of Seattle and of Keisha Lance Bottoms of Atlanta, not to seek reelection.
The stats show conditions in the city have changed: Property and violent crime rates have decreased dramatically — homicide rates are at the lowest level in a half-century. Drug overdose deaths are down sharply after a record peak last year. There are fewer tent encampments on the streets (though more homeless people overall, counting those in shelters).
“I don’t know about you, but the city sure is feeling good,” Breed told cheering supporters Tuesday night during her party at a soul food restaurant downtown. “We have laid the groundwork for this city to continue to move forward.”
Her closest supporters are trying to cast her loss in a positive light. David said Breed arguably “outperformed” expectations given the change-oriented local and national political climate.
“The mayor ended up in second place with an electorate that was really chomping for change,” he said.
There was a moment in early August when polls showed Breed leading the race. Lurie, however, quickly picked up steam as he poured millions into TV ads and mailers emphasizing his outsider message.
Then, in late August, 49ers’ wide receiver Ricky Pearsall was shot in the chest and seriously injured during an armed robbery at Union Square in broad daylight. Two weeks later, a Breed appointee stepped down amid yet another City Hall scandal — this time over contracts awarded to a man she lives with.
Rafael Mandelman, a member of the Board of Supervisors and Breed ally, said that in hindsight, it’s clear many voters made up their minds months ago about wanting to shake up City Hall.
“It seems like there was a set of voters who were never going to have London Breed on their dance card in any way,” he said. “They just weren’t going to consider her at all.”