Typically when we see a hurricane in the Gulf, the entire Gulf Coast is holding their breath. However, Rafael isn’t stirring any nerves at the moment, because all signs are pointing toward the storm just drifting in the Gulf into next week, possibly not making landfall at all.

H​owever, Rafael is still worth the eyeballs. Here's why:

If the storm tracks west of the Yucatan Peninsula as a hurricane, that would be the only November hurricane to do so since 1851.

Hurricane Jeanne, in 1980, is the only November hurricane somewhat similar to at least part of Rafael's track forecast. Jeanne arrived in the Gulf of Mexico, then rapidly intensified to Category 2 strength in the southern Gulf.

“Like what will happen with Rafael, Jeanne was steered west in the Gulf by upper-level high pressure to its north, but then lost its atmospheric steering wheel and slowed down,” explained weather.com meteorologist Jonathan Erdman.

Once Jeanne traveled west of the Yucatan Peninsula, the storm had weakened to a tropical storm. Eventually a cold front and dry air spelled Jeanne’s final demise.

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Why Rafael’s track is so rare

O​f only six other previous Gulf hurricanes in November, five of those were in the eastern Gulf.

“We don't typically have western Gulf storms in November because the jet stream usually becomes stronger over the southern U.S. and most of the Gulf,” said Erdman. “That stronger jet usually either pushes any November storms toward Florida, the Caribbean Sea, or rips them apart.”

O​f the 287 hurricanes that made a mainland U.S. landfall in NOAA's database, only four of those did so in November. Most recently, Hurricane Nicole struck Florida in 2022 as a late-season Category 1 hurricane.

However, cold fronts typically don’t make it all the way through Florida in November, which leaves an opening of opportunity in the Sunshine State. That’s why if a storm does form or move into the Gulf of Mexico in November, Florida's the most likely landfall location.

What’s steering Rafael?

Rafael's future track is becoming more interesting by the day. It is expected to weaken and slow down. Meanwhile, another ridge of high pressure could form to its west or northwest which would help drag it southwestward into early next week.

“If it survives the dry air, that southwest jog could move it into an area of lower wind shear, meaning it could survive well into next week in the southwest Gulf of Mexico,” explained Erdman. Adding, “A November storm that far southwest in the Gulf of Mexico would be unprecedented in the historical database dating to the mid-19th century.”

Typical impact zones for November storms

In the satellite era - since 1966 - November has produced an average of one storm every 1 to 2 years and one hurricane every 2 to 3 years.

More often, it's parts of the Caribbean and Central America that have taken hard hits from November hurricanes.

If a storm does develop in November, it usually does so in the western Caribbean Sea or either the southwestern or central Atlantic. This is because environmental factors are better suited for development. Wind shear is normally pretty low, cold fronts usually haven’t made it this far south, and water temperatures are still pretty warm. All of these factors can help support storm formation.

But just as we’ve seen with Rafael, hurricane season doesn’t always play by the rule book - anything is possible.

J​ennifer Gray is a weather and climate writer for weather.com. She has been covering some of the world's biggest weather and climate stories for the last two decades.