Hurricane Rafael made landfall in Cuba at Category 3 intensity, and will then brush the Florida Keys as it tracks into the Gulf of Mexico where weakening should commence due to multiple atmospheric and oceanic factors.

(​PERSPECTIVE: Seasons That Have Reached 11 Hurricanes)

Landfall: Hurricane Rafael strengthened into a Category 3 with 115 mph winds early Wednesday afternoon, then made landfall in western Cuba's Artemisa province near Playa Majana just over 3 hours later, according to to the National Hurricane Center. Wind gusts over 70 mph have been reported in Cuba's capital city, Havana.

R​afael is the Atlantic's fifth Category 3 or stronger hurricane this season, joining Beryl, Helene, Kirk and Milton.

C​uba, Florida Keys impacts: W​estern Cuba can expect hurricane conditions (74-mph winds or higher) and life-threatening storm surge into Wednesday evening. Heavy rainfall could cause flash flooding and mudslides in parts of Cuba, as well.

A tropical storm warning is in effect for the Lower and Middle Florida Keys.

Rafael's future in the Gulf: T​hereafter, Rafael is expected to turn west and weaken in the Gulf because it will likely encounter increasingly unfavorable upper-level winds, some dry air and somewhat cooler Gulf of Mexico water.

Rafael could end up moving slowly over the western Gulf of Mexico this weekend into early next week.

There is an increasing chance if Rafael stays far enough south it could hold onto some strength and eventually drift southwestward toward the Mexican Gulf Coast next week.

There remains a chance Rafael in a much weakened form could either be pulled toward the northern Gulf Coast, or completely fizzle in the western Gulf next week.

(​MORE: Why Rafael Isn't Expected To Be Another Helene Or Milton)

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