Rafael forecast to become major hurricane ahead of Cuba landfall as late-season storm intensifies
Rafael forecast to become major hurricane ahead of Cuba landfall as late-season storm intensifies
    Posted on 11/06/2024
MIAMI – Hurricane Rafael continues to intensify as it spins across the Caribbean Sea, and forecasters now say the late-season storm should strengthen into a major hurricane ahead of its anticipated landfall in Cuba on Wednesday.

Millions of people along the U.S. Gulf Coast from Texas to Florida are keeping their eyes on the hurricane as it slams Cuba with damaging, hurricane-force winds, a life-threatening storm surge and destructive waves along the coast.

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The National Hurricane Center (NHC) said that while rapid strengthening is forecast to continue, Rafael is expected to briefly weaken while spinning across western Cuba. However, the storm is forecast to remain at hurricane strength (74 mph or greater) as it emerges into the Gulf of Mexico.

Rafael has been lashing portions of the western Caribbean on its journey toward Cuba and the Gulf of Mexico, and the NHC said it's concerned that torrential rain could lead to flash flooding and mudslides in the higher terrain of Cuba.

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Tropical storm conditions are expected in the lower and middle Florida Keys starting later Wednesday and into Wednesday night.

Heavy rain is expected across the western Caribbean through early Thursday, especially across the Cayman Islands and western Cuba. The NHC said rainfall totals of 4-8 inches are expected in parts of Cuba, with locally higher amounts of up to 12 inches in the higher terrain. An additional 2-4 inches could fall across the Cayman Islands.

In the lower and middle Florida Keys, rainfall totals of 1-3 inches are expected.

Forecasters are also concerned about the potential for a life-threatening storm surge. The NHC said a storm surge of 9-14 feet above normal high-tide levels is possible in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of Cuba within the Hurricane Warning area, including the Isle of Youth.

A storm surge of 1-3 feet is forecast for the Dry Tortugas National Park area, with 1-2 feet predicted in the lower Florida Keys.

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Where is Hurricane Rafael?

As of the latest advisory from the NHC, Rafael is about 60 miles east-southeast of the Isle of Youth and moving northwest at 14 mph.

Rafael has maximum sustained winds of 110 mph, making it a high-end Category 2 hurricane. The official forecast calls for the hurricane to intensify with winds topping out at 115 mph, making it a Category 3 hurricane.

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A Hurricane Warning remains in effect across western Cuba, including Havana.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the lower and middle Florida Keys from Key West to the Channel 5 Bridge, as well as for the Dry Tortugas. Central Cuba is also under a Tropical Storm Warning.

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What's the forecast for Hurricane Rafael?

According to the NHC, Rafael is expected to continue moving northwest for the next day or two, followed by a gradual turn toward the west-northwest in the Gulf of Mexico. On that track, Rafael is expected to move near or just east of the Isle of Youth over the next few hours and make landfall in western Cuba later Wednesday. Rafael will then emerge in the Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday night.

From there, computer forecast models are in disagreement as to where exactly Rafael is headed next.

"It is too soon to determine what, if any, impacts Rafael could bring to portions of the northern Gulf Coast," the NHC said. "Residents in this area should regularly monitor updates to the forecast."
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