Live updates: Senate, House and gubernatorial election, ballot measures
Live updates: Senate, House and gubernatorial election, ballot measures
    Posted on 11/05/2024
Roughly three-quarters of the US electorate holds a negative view of the way things are going in the US today, according to the initial results of CNN’s national exit poll of voters in this year’s presidential election.

Only about one-quarter call themselves enthusiastic or satisfied with the state of the nation, with more than 4 in 10 dissatisfied and roughly 3 in 10 saying they’re angry.

But voters remain generally optimistic, with more than 6 in 10 saying that America’s best days are in the future, and only about one-third that they’re already in the past. President Joe Biden’s approval rating is underwater nationally, with about 4 in 10 voters saying they approve of his job performance and a majority disapproving.

More about the exit polls: CNN’s exit polls for the 2024 general election include interviews with thousands of voters, both those who cast a ballot on Election Day and those who voted early or absentee.

That scope makes them a powerful tool for understanding the demographic profile and political views of voters in this year’s election. And their findings will eventually be weighted against the ultimate benchmark: the results of the elections themselves.

Even so, exit polls are still polls, with margins for error — which means they’re most useful when treated as estimates, rather than precise measurements. That’s particularly true for the earliest exit poll numbers, which haven’t yet been adjusted to match final election results.

CNN exit polls are a combination of in-person interviews with Election Day voters and in-person interviews, telephone and online polls measuring the views of early and absentee by-mail voters.

They were conducted by Edison Research on behalf of the National Election Pool. In-person interviews on Election Day were conducted at a random sample of 279 polling locations.

The results also include interviews with early and absentee voters conducted between October 24 and November 2, in person at 27 early voting locations, by phone or online. Results for the full sample of 16,604 respondents have a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points; it is larger for subgroups.

Washington Rep. Suzan DelBene, who leads the House Democrats’ campaign operation, told CNN on Tuesday that it could take a week or more before control of the House is officially determined.

As more voters choose to vote by mail, DelBene cautioned that it could take just as long as the midterms in 2022 — when it took eight days to officially know which party won the House — or more.

DelBene said she is preparing fellow Democrats for a delay based on last cycle’s election results, which were not official until November 16, 2022. Republicans won the House by only about 6,675 votes — the results of the five closest races. Some were decided by less than 1,000 votes.

Entering Election Day on Tuesday, the battle for control of the US House of Representatives rests on a knife’s edge, with a historically small universe of competitive races poised to determine the chamber’s majority in the next Congress – an outcome that could have far-reaching consequences for the next president’s agenda.

All 435 House seats are on the ballot, with Republicans defending a slim majority and Democrats needing a net gain of four seats to flip control of the chamber. There is a clear consensus among both parties that whichever side emerges with a majority is likely to have little room to spare. A single-seat majority is not outside the realm of possibility. That could pose a challenge for Mike Johnson, if the GOP retains control and restores the Louisiana Republican as House speaker, or Hakeem Jeffries, if Democrats retake the chamber and make history by installing the New York Democrat as the first Black speaker.

If Donald Trump is returned to the White House, a Republican House could help advance his agenda while a Democratic-controlled chamber would serve as a potential roadblock, particularly if the GOP is able to flip the Senate, as it appears poised to do given a favorable map. As for Kamala Harris, she could be the first newly elected Democratic president in more than a century to start her term without concurring House and Senate majorities, though controlling at least one chamber could give her some much-needed leverage in negotiations.

With so much at stake, CNN has identified 10 races to watch on Tuesday – grouped into buckets that nod to broader themes across the House landscape. This is far from an exhaustive list, but the selected contests could offer some clues about how the fight for control of the chamber may ultimately be settled.

Virginia’s 7th District: The early indicator

Nebraska’s 2nd District: The Biden crossover seat

Maine’s 2nd District: The Trump crossover seat

Michigan’s 7th District: Open-seat opportunity

Colorado’s 8th District: The freshmen

Pennsylvania’s 10th District: Too much MAGA?

New York’s 19th District: Empire State of mind

California’s 45th District: California, here we come

North Carolina’s 1st District: The redistricting reshuffle

Iowa’s 3rd District: Stopping the suburban slide

Read up on those key races here.

Senate control is up for grabs Tuesday. And although Republicans are well positioned to win the majority, Democrats cannot be counted out entirely.

That’s because their well-funded candidates have consistently overperformed the top of the ticket in polling of many of the most important races. And even as the Senate map has become more daunting for Democrats with West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin retiring, opportunities to mitigate GOP gains have opened up in Texas and, increasingly, Nebraska.

With Manchin almost certain to be succeeded by a Republican, the GOP needs to either pick up one more Senate seat or win the White House to flip the chamber. That math puts the pressure on Democrats to hold all their competitive seats while trying to knock off Republicans in Texas and Florida.

The battle for the Senate has evolved over the past two years, and CNN’s rankings of the top 10 seats most likely to flip – which is based on our reporting, as well as polling, fundraising and advertising data – has reflected those shifts.

Senate seats in the three states that Donald Trump won twice (West Virginia, Montana and Ohio) have always been the most likely to flip. Democrats aren’t trying to defend West Virginia. In Montana and Ohio, Sens. Jon Tester and Sherrod Brown, respectively, have defied partisan gravity before, even when several of their red-state colleagues lost in 2018. But that’s looking increasingly difficult with the decline of ticket-splitters.

The three “blue wall” states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin – which are also crucial presidential battlegrounds – started the cycle looking more comfortable for Senate Democrats. But the races there have all tightened in the final months of the campaign as GOP groups ramped up spending and Republican voters coalesced around their nominees.

Keep reading here about the Senate seats that are expected to flip.

Every two years, every seat in the House, all 435 of them, is up for grabs. Most of those seats are relatively safe for either Republicans or Democrats, but there is always the possibility that the majority changes hands.

Democrats are favored in 208 races and Republicans are favored in 212, according to preelection House race ratings from the nonpartisan analysis site Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales. With just 15 races listed as toss-ups, it’s likely that neither party will have a very large majority next year.

Changes in the balance of power have actually happened more in recent elections. This year, Republicans are heading into the election with a small majority, and it’s entirely possible that Democrats win their own small majority for the next House even if they lose the White House and control of the Senate.

It’s important for either party to control the House. Presidents need control to enact their priorities. The out-of-power party wants control to block the president’s priorities. In an ideal world, the two sides would work together to find consensus on issues like immigration and the tax code.

Read more about how the US election works.

Only a third of Senate seats are up for grabs every two years — and Democrats are on defense as they try to maintain their slim majority.

Of the 34 seats for which there is an election this year, Democrats are defending 20 and Republicans are defending 13. Two of those Democratic seats, in West Virginia and Montana, are likely to be won by Republicans, according to the Senate race ratings. Another one, in Ohio, is rated as a toss-up.

Democrats hope they can pick up an unexpected win in either Texas or Florida, but Republicans are on pace to have a slim majority in the Senate next year. Assuming Republicans hold all of the seats they currently hold, they can control the chamber if they flip one Democratic seat and win the White House (the vice president breaks ties in the Senate) or win two seats regardless of the outcome of the presidential race.

No matter who has control of the Senate, neither party is expected to have a supermajority. That’s important because senators generally abide by a custom of respecting the filibuster. It usually requires 60 votes to enact major pieces of legislation, although both Republicans and Democrats have found ways around that in recent years.

Republicans found a way to enact tax cuts under former President Donald Trump without 60 votes. Democrats did the same thing with their Inflation Reduction Act, which, among other things, aims to transition the US to a greener economy.

Read more about how the US election works.
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