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It all comes down to Pennsylvania. Both presidential campaigns have fought hard for the Keystone State and its 19 electoral votes, the biggest prize of the tossup states. If Vice President Kamala Harris loses Pennsylvania, she has a tough road to the White House. And if Donald Trump wins it, he’s well on his way.

If Harris loses the state, she will need to win North Carolina or Georgia, as well as Nevada and the remaining ‘blue wall’ states. If Trump loses Pennsylvania, he needs to pick off one of the midwestern swing states and would need to win every single Sunbelt state.

READ MORE: What to expect in Pennsylvania on Election Day

Despite the state voting reliably Democratic from 1992 to 2012, Trump was able to flip it in 2016, winning by about 40,000 votes. His ability to court working-class white voters without college degrees served him well then, but native son Joe Biden flipped the state back in 2020 and beat Trump by about 80,000 votes in 2020. The importance of white working class voters could play out again in areas like Lackawanna County, home to Scranton, where Trump has made inroads. For Harris, she’ll need to drive up turnout in cities and suburbs.

And it was in Butler, Pennsylvania, in July that Trump was the target of an attempted assassination attempt.

— Ian Couzens