Topline

Former President Donald Trump’s lead over Vice President Kamala Harris in the election betting markets narrowed sharply over the weekend—with the Democrat even taking a small lead in one of the five big markets—as the betting market responded to some favorable recent polling for Harris, including a shock poll showing her ahead in the red state of Iowa.

Key Facts

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What Triggered The Swing In The Election Betting Markets?

While there had been some movement in Harris’ favor since Friday, a big swing occurred late on Saturday night after well-respected pollster Ann Selzer released numbers from her team’s final survey in Iowa. Selzer’s poll, published by the Des Moines Register, showed Harris with a shock three-point lead over Trump (47%-44%) in a state the former president carried in 2016 and 2020. While the poll is likely an outlier—another poll by Emerson College showing Trump ahead 53%-43%—Selzer’s recent history of publishing some of the most accurate numbers for Iowa indicates the race may be closer than the bookmakers initially predicted. Immediately after the poll’s release, Harris briefly took a lead on Kalshi’s market, while Trump’s lead on Polymarket fell to around 11 points. Trump’s consolidated odds across five markets, however, have recovered slightly in the last 24 hours after dropping to 51-48 early on Sunday.

Big Number

0.9%. That is the size of Harris’ lead over Trump in national polls, according to FiveThirtyEight’s weighted average.

Surprising Fact

Unlike Polymarket, Kalshi and PredictIt only allow U.S. citizens to place bets on election outcomes.

Further Reading

Why Outlier Poll Showing Harris Winning Iowa Could Spell Trouble For Trump (Forbes)