Topline

The swing state race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris is effectively a tossup, with the final pre-election polls Sunday and Monday showing the candidates split the seven swing states—and crucial Pennsylvania is virtually tied.

Key Facts

Big Number

1.1 points. That’s Harris’ lead in FiveThirtyEight’s national polling average.

Who’s Favored To Win The Election?

It’s extremely close. FiveThirtyEight gives Trump a 52% chance of winning, while statistician Nate Silver put his odds at 50.4%. If the polling averages above are right on the money in all seven swing states, Harris will eke out a narrow electoral victory—but the polls could easily be off, and even a small error in either direction could lead to a Trump or Harris landslide.

Is Iowa A Swing State?

Probably not—but a new poll out Saturday has raised some people’s eyebrows. Renowned pollster J. Ann Selzer found Harris leading Trump 47%-44%, a shocking result given Selzer’s sterling reputation and Iowa’s status as a red state. Most other polls of Iowa show Trump with a significant lead. It’s not clear whether the poll’s findings—which suggested women, independents and older voters have swung sharply against Trump—will be replicated in other swing states like neighboring Wisconsin.

Tangent

Harris became the Democratic nominee after President Joe Biden dropped out of the race on July 21, amid an intraparty revolt in the wake of his debate performance—shifting Democrats’ fortunes dramatically. Prior to the shift, polls consistently found Trump would beat Biden in most battleground states, despite Biden winning six of the seven (with the exception of North Carolina) in the 2020 election.

Further Reading

Trump Vs. Harris 2024 Polls: Harris Holds Onto Lead In 4 New Polls (Forbes)

Michigan 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Harris Leads Narrowly In One Of Her Most Important State (Forbes)

Pennsylvania 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Harris Has Less Than 1-Point Lead In Polling Averages (Forbes)

North Carolina 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Near Tie In The New 7th Swing State (Forbes)

Georgia 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Most Surveys Show Trump Ahead In Crucial Swing State (Forbes)

Nevada 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Harris Has A Narrow Lead—But Struggles With Latino Voters (Forbes)

Wisconsin 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Latest Surveys Show Trump With Slight Edge (Forbes)