The tropics are heating up once again. Late Monday afternoon, Tropical Storm Rafael formed over the Caribbean Sea.

After starting the day with a ragged, disorganized appearance, Rafael’s structure organized somewhat during the afternoon, and thunderstorm activity consolidated near its center — a sign of a strengthening storm.

The latest system is expected to become a hurricane on Tuesday, the 11th of the season, and may remain a hurricane into the Gulf of Mexico. A tropical storm warning covers Jamaica while a hurricane warning covers the Cayman Islands, which are expected to bear the brunt of a Category 1 hurricane on Tuesday afternoon and evening.

Rafael may even intensify into a Category 2 hurricane on Wednesday as it crosses the extremely warm ocean water south of Cuba, where hurricane watches are in effect.

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What to know about the potential Gulf Coast impact

On Wednesday night, the storm is expected to move into the southern Gulf of Mexico, before tracking to the northwest and into the central Gulf of Mexico by late week, but there is still uncertainty.

Disruptive jet stream winds, dry air and cooler waters will weaken the system as it moves toward the Gulf Coast from late in the week into the weekend. Still, tropical moisture streaming out ahead of Rafael will reach Florida, Georgia and South Carolina from Wednesday into Thursday, and some of it could be quite heavy and slow-moving. In more than 170 years of recordkeeping, the United States has logged only four hurricane landfalls in November.

In Georgia and South Carolina in particular, Rafael’s moisture will link up with a decaying front, potentially exacerbating the impact. It will probably become clearer on Tuesday where the heaviest rain may fall.

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Although the Atlantic hurricane season technically ends on the last day of this month, November storms typically form in the western Caribbean, which is still plenty hot this time of year. Rafael will be no exception.

The season to date has been about 25 percent more active than average, and there have been five hurricane landfalls in the United States: Beryl, Debby, Francine, Helene and Milton. But the season has been far short of the “hyperactive” one that many experts had predicted.

What to know about the system’s path

The system will likely sideswipe Jamaica late Monday into early Tuesday. A general 3 to 6 inches of rain, with locally greater amounts, are possible. Winds gusting over 50 mph are expected.

On Tuesday, the system will experience greater strengthening. That’s due both to warm water and the spreading of air aloft. The more air that fans away from a storm at the high altitudes, the more warm, humid air the system can ingest from below.

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That’s why there is a growing chance the storm could be a hurricane as it passes over the Cayman Islands later Tuesday and Cuba early Wednesday.

By Tuesday afternoon and evening, the storm will be passing near or over the Cayman Islands, probably as a hurricane. Winds gusting to 70 to 80 mph or greater will accompany 4 to 8 inches of rain, with the worst of the weather expected over Little Cayman and Cayman Brac.

What to know about other systems to watch

A storm named Patty formed Saturday west of the Azores and passed over the Portuguese archipelago as a 50-mph subtropical storm.

It became a fully tropical storm Monday as its wind field narrowed and it was left behind by the nontropical low that gave birth to it. Later in the day, the system dissipated.

Then there’s another weak system near Hispaniola, but it’s unlikely that any development will ensue.