Tropical Storm Watch Issued For Florida Keys
Posted on 11/04/2024
Tropical Storm Rafael has formed in the Caribbean. Rafael is forecast to intensify into a hurricane on Tuesday before entering the Gulf of Mexico where conditions will trend less conducive for the system to hold that intensity later this week.
Here's the latest status on this system: Tropical Storm Rafael is centered 175 miles south of Kingston, Jamaica, and is tracking north at 9 mph.
Hurricane Hunters found that an eyewall appears to be developing within the storm Monday afternoon, and the deep convection is continuing to develop.
Here's the latest intensify and track forecast: Rafael is currently expected to reach hurricane strength Tuesday afternoon, and could strengthen to a Category 2 hurricane before it reaches Cuba on Wednesday.
Thereafter, Rafael is predicted to undergo some level of weakening in the Gulf of Mexico because it will likely encounter increasingly unfavorable upper-level winds, some dry air and cooling Gulf of Mexico waters.
What we know about future Rafael's possible impacts along the U.S. Gulf Coast: A tropical storm watch has been issued for the Lower and Middle Florida Keys. But overall, the forecast remains highly uncertain.
That said, Rafael could at least help enhance rainfall in Florida and other parts of the Southeast U.S. beginning Wednesday by pulling tropical moisture northward. It's too early to nail down any other specifics.
What to expect in the Caribbean from this system: Heavy rainfall could cause flash flooding and mudslides from southern Haiti's Tiburon Peninsula to Jamaica, the Cayman Islands and parts of western and southern Cuba early this week.
A hurricane warning has been issued for the Cayman Islands. This means that hurricane conditions (74-mph winds or higher) are expected. Hurricane force winds could arrive in the Cayman Islands as soon as Tuesday afternoon.
A tropical storm warning has been issued for Jamaica, which means that tropical storm conditions (39- to 73-mph winds) are expected. These conditions are forecast to arrive in Jamaica this evening.
A hurricane watch is also now in effect for western Cuba. That means hurricane conditions are possible there in the next 48 hours. Tropical storms watches extend east from there into central Cuba.
Some storm surge flooding is possible in Jamaica, Cayman Islands and western Cuba, as well.
Here's the latest status on this system: Tropical Storm Rafael is centered 175 miles south of Kingston, Jamaica, and is tracking north at 9 mph.
Hurricane Hunters found that an eyewall appears to be developing within the storm Monday afternoon, and the deep convection is continuing to develop.
Here's the latest intensify and track forecast: Rafael is currently expected to reach hurricane strength Tuesday afternoon, and could strengthen to a Category 2 hurricane before it reaches Cuba on Wednesday.
Thereafter, Rafael is predicted to undergo some level of weakening in the Gulf of Mexico because it will likely encounter increasingly unfavorable upper-level winds, some dry air and cooling Gulf of Mexico waters.
What we know about future Rafael's possible impacts along the U.S. Gulf Coast: A tropical storm watch has been issued for the Lower and Middle Florida Keys. But overall, the forecast remains highly uncertain.
That said, Rafael could at least help enhance rainfall in Florida and other parts of the Southeast U.S. beginning Wednesday by pulling tropical moisture northward. It's too early to nail down any other specifics.
What to expect in the Caribbean from this system: Heavy rainfall could cause flash flooding and mudslides from southern Haiti's Tiburon Peninsula to Jamaica, the Cayman Islands and parts of western and southern Cuba early this week.
A hurricane warning has been issued for the Cayman Islands. This means that hurricane conditions (74-mph winds or higher) are expected. Hurricane force winds could arrive in the Cayman Islands as soon as Tuesday afternoon.
A tropical storm warning has been issued for Jamaica, which means that tropical storm conditions (39- to 73-mph winds) are expected. These conditions are forecast to arrive in Jamaica this evening.
A hurricane watch is also now in effect for western Cuba. That means hurricane conditions are possible there in the next 48 hours. Tropical storms watches extend east from there into central Cuba.
Some storm surge flooding is possible in Jamaica, Cayman Islands and western Cuba, as well.
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