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Tropical Storm Rafael formed Monday afternoon and is expected to move into the Gulf of Mexico this week, according to the National Hurricane Center.

As of 4 p.m. Monday, the system was located at 15.5N and 76.7W with maximum sustained winds of 45 miles an hour, moving north at 9 miles an hour.

According to the NHC, Rafael is expected to pass near Jamaica, where a tropical storm warning is in effect, by early Tuesday.

Landfall is then expected in western Cuba on Wednesday, possibly as a Category 1 hurricane.

Will the storm impact Florida?

Once the storm enters the Gulf, it's expected to weaken because of cooler water temperatures and more wind shear.

Models show the storm staying west of Florida, with FOX 13 Meteorologist Dave Osterberg saying the Bay Area will get some rain and wind later this week.

"But that wind will be moving offshore," Osterberg said. "That will mean no storm surge or anything like that."

Elsewhere in the tropics

The remnants of Patty are moving east-northeast across the Atlantic, with heavy rainfall expected across portions of Portugal and western Spain in the coming days.

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