Democratic Statewide Candidates Hold Edge Over Republican Candidates

The final Emerson College Polling/The Hill swing state surveys continue to find a race that is too close to call. In Michigan, Vice President Harris has a two-point edge over former president Trump, 50% to 48%. The race is even in Nevada and Wisconsin, at 48% in Nevada and 49% in Wisconsin. Trump has a one-point edge in Georgia (50% to 49%), North Carolina (49% to 48%), and Pennsylvania (49% to 48%). In Arizona, Trump has a two-point edge, 50% to 48%. All polls are within each survey’s margin of error.

“The gender gap on the ballot continues to sharply divide voting intentions,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said. “In Michigan, where Harris has an edge over Trump, and Wisconsin, men and women break in opposite directions: men for Trump by 12, and women for Harris by 11. In states where Trump has a slight edge, like North Carolina and Pennsylvania, men support Trump by a wider margin than women support Harris.”

Gender Gap

Arizona: men break for Trump by seven points (53% to 46%) while women break for Harris by two (50% to 48%).

Georgia: men break for Trump by 16, (58% to 42%), women break for Harris by 12 (55% to 43%).

Michigan: men break for Trump by 12 (55% to 43%), women break for Harris by 11 (55% to 44%).

In Nevada, men break for Trump by nine (53% to 44%), while women break for Harris by six (51% to 45%).

North Carolina: men break for Trump by nine (53% to 44%), while women break for Harris by five (52% to 47%).

Pennsylvania: men break for Trump by 17 (58% to 41%), women break for Harris by 13 (55% to 42%).

Wisconsin: men break for Trump by 12 (55% to 43%) and women break for Harris by 11 (55% to 44%).

Statewide Elections

Arizona US Senate, 50% support Democrat Ruben Gallego, 45% support Kari Lake. Five percent are undecided.

Gallego’s support held since last month, while Lake’s support increased two points, from 43% to 45%.

Michigan US Senate: 49% support Democrat Elissa Slotkin, 45% support Republican Mike Rogers, and 6% are undecided.

Slotkin’s support held since the last Michigan poll, while Rogers’ support increased from 44% to 45%.

Nevada US Senate: 50% support incumbent Democrat Jacky Rosen, 44% support Republican Sam Brown, 3% plan to vote for none of these candidates, and 3% are undecided.

North Carolina Governor: 52% support Democrat Josh Stein, 40% support Republican Mark Robinson, 4% plan to support someone else, and 4% are undecided.

Since the last poll of the gubernatorial race, Stein and Robinson’s support both increased one point.

Just over 1 in 10 (11%) of Trump voters also support Stein on the ballot in North Carolina, the highest rate of split-ticket voting in the swing states.

Pennsylvania US Senate: 47% support incumbent Democrat Bob Casey, 47% support Republican David McCormick, 6% are undecided.

Since October, support for McCormick increased one point, while support for Casey stayed at 47%.

Wisconsin US Senate: 51% support incumbent Democrat Tammy Baldwin, 45% support Republican Eric Hovde, 4% are undecided.

This has shifted since the last Emerson poll that had the race tied at 48% each: Baldwin has picked up three points while Hovde has lost three points.

Abortion on the ballot

In Arizona, 57% of voters plan to vote in favor of Arizona Proposition 239, a constitutional amendment that would provide a fundamental right to abortion up until fetal viability, or about the 24th week of pregnancy. Thirty-six percent plan to vote against it, and 7% are unsure.

Among voters who support the constitutional amendment to provide a right to abortion, 76% support Harris and 23% support Trump. Among voters who plan to vote no, 92% support Trump and 7% Harris.

Similarly, in Nevada, 56% plan to support the state constitutional amendment to provide a fundamental right to abortion, while 35% oppose it, and 9% are unsure.

METHODOLOGY

The sample size for Arizona is n=900, with a credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error of +/-3.2%. The sample size for Michigan is n=790, with a credibility interval of +/-3.4%. The sample size for North Carolina is n=860 with a credibility interval of +/-3.3%. The sample size for Nevada is n=840, with a credibility interval of +/-3.3%. The sample size for Pennsylvania is n=1,000, with a credibility interval of +/-3%. The sample size for Wisconsin is n=800, with a credibility interval of +/-3.4% The sample size for Georgia is n=800 with a credibility interval of +/-3.4%

Data was weighted by statewide voter parameters, including gender, age, race/ethnicity, partisan affiliation/registration, education, and voter registration/turnout data per state.

The survey was administered by contacting respondents’ cell phones via MMS-to-web and landlines via Interactive Voice Response with respondents provided by Aristotle, along with an online panel provided by CINT. The surveys were offered in English. Data was collected between October 30-November 2, 2024. The surveys were conducted by Emerson College Polling and sponsored by Nexstar Media.

It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics, such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity, carry with them higher credibility intervals, as the sample size is reduced. Survey results should be understood within the poll’s range of scores, and know with a confidence interval of 95% a poll will fall outside the range of scores 1 in 20 times.