Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen formed in the Caribbean Sunday afternoon and is forecast to become a tropical storm within the next two days.It will then move toward the northwest and be in the northwestern Caribbean by Wednesday, where it could strengthen to a hurricane. After that, it's likely to move into the Gulf of Mexico by the end of the week but weaken back to a tropical storm as it will encounter unfavorable upper level winds and dry air.Southeast Louisiana is in the forecast cone, and we could be looking at impacts from whatever is left of this system by next weekend. Those impacts are too early to tell right now though. To give you a better picture of why there's such high uncertainty in the track, here are the "spaghetti plots" right now.CURRENT ENVIRONMENT:Water temperatures in the Caribbean are still VERY warm with readings near 90! Water temperatures begin to cool considerably the farther north you travel through the Gulf of Mexico.Humidity is high in the Caribbean but drier air hovers over the Gulf of Mexico.Wind shear is low in the path of the system right now. However, by the end of the week a strong storm moving through the Southern U.S. will begin to develop quite a bit of wind shear over the Gulf of Mexico too.FORECAST DATA:The Global Forecast System out of the U.S. has been consistent in tracking the eventual storm east of us as it encounters a strong southwesterly flow from the strong storm moving through the Southern U.S.Forecast data out of Europe (ECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) take the system south of us and joining up with the storm over the Southern U.S. by next weekend.ANALYSIS:This forecast has a long way to go, and the forecast track data are highly uncertain. Here's just one suite of our ensemble forecast track data and they're all over the place by the end of the week. That's why they're called "spaghetti plots".From our U.S. data, there have been a bit of a signal of the system getting influenced by a strong southwesterly flow at the jet stream level that would steer the storm east of us. This can barely be made out by the slight clustering of the forecast tracks east.Even if this would be a "worst case scenario" and the system does track over Southeast Louisiana it would weaken so much that we'd be looking at a gusty rain maker.Be sure to stay with WDSU First Warning Weather for all the latest updates on this important forecast.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen formed in the Caribbean Sunday afternoon and is forecast to become a tropical storm within the next two days.

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It will then move toward the northwest and be in the northwestern Caribbean by Wednesday, where it could strengthen to a hurricane. After that, it's likely to move into the Gulf of Mexico by the end of the week but weaken back to a tropical storm as it will encounter unfavorable upper level winds and dry air.

Southeast Louisiana is in the forecast cone, and we could be looking at impacts from whatever is left of this system by next weekend. Those impacts are too early to tell right now though. To give you a better picture of why there's such high uncertainty in the track, here are the "spaghetti plots" right now.

CURRENT ENVIRONMENT:

Water temperatures in the Caribbean are still VERY warm with readings near 90! Water temperatures begin to cool considerably the farther north you travel through the Gulf of Mexico.

Hearst Owned

Humidity is high in the Caribbean but drier air hovers over the Gulf of Mexico.

Hearst Owned

Wind shear is low in the path of the system right now. However, by the end of the week a strong storm moving through the Southern U.S. will begin to develop quite a bit of wind shear over the Gulf of Mexico too.

Hearst Owned

Hearst Owned

FORECAST DATA:

The Global Forecast System out of the U.S. has been consistent in tracking the eventual storm east of us as it encounters a strong southwesterly flow from the strong storm moving through the Southern U.S.

Hearst Owned

Hearst Owned

Forecast data out of Europe (ECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) take the system south of us and joining up with the storm over the Southern U.S. by next weekend.

Hearst Owned

Hearst Owned

Hearst Owned

ANALYSIS:

This forecast has a long way to go, and the forecast track data are highly uncertain. Here's just one suite of our ensemble forecast track data and they're all over the place by the end of the week. That's why they're called "spaghetti plots".

Hearst Owned

From our U.S. data, there have been a bit of a signal of the system getting influenced by a strong southwesterly flow at the jet stream level that would steer the storm east of us. This can barely be made out by the slight clustering of the forecast tracks east.

Hearst Owned

Even if this would be a "worst case scenario" and the system does track over Southeast Louisiana it would weaken so much that we'd be looking at a gusty rain maker.

Be sure to stay with WDSU First Warning Weather for all the latest updates on this important forecast.