Topline

Former President Donald Trump has a four-point lead over Vice President Kamala Harris in Arizona in a new New York Times swing state survey—representing his widest lead of any battleground polled.

Key Facts

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Ballot Initiatives On Immigration And Abortion Could Decide Arizona

Arizona voters will vote on the state’s Right to Abortion Initiative, which would codify abortion rights in the state’s constitution. An immigration and border law enforcement measure—which would make unlawfully crossing the Arizona border from Mexico a state crime, letting state police arrest and detain migrants and allowing state judges to deport them— will also be on the ballot. Harris and Democrats are banking on the abortion ballot measure to prove successful—as similar initiatives have in seven other states where they’ve been up for a vote—while Trump hopes for the same for the border enforcement measure. Immigration is a leading concern in Arizona, the Associated Press reported, noting frustration over illegal immigration persists in the state following a surge in migrant crossings.

Key Background

Trump, who won Arizona in 2016, lost the battleground state by just 10,457 votes in 2020 to Biden. Despite the loss, Trump claimed victory in Arizona and later alleged the entire voter database of Maricopa County, the state’s most populous county, was deleted. Republican officials overseeing the election refuted Trump’s claim, with Maricopa County recorder Stephen Richer characterizing Trump’s statement as “unhinged.” Trump also attempted to press former Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey (R) to overturn the election, telling the governor in a phone call if enough fraudulent votes were identified, it would flip the results in his favor, The Washington Post reported. Trump is battling with Harris in six other swing states in addition to Arizona. They all remain tightly contested.

Further Reading

Election 2024 Swing State Polls: Trump Keeps Lead In Arizona As Harris Holds Narrow Edge In Pennsylvania (Forbes)

Pennsylvania 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Harris Leads Crucial Swing State In Latest Poll (Forbes)

Georgia 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Harris Holds Surprise 1-Point Lead In New Survey (Forbes)