Kamala Harris' Status in Final Polls Compared With Biden, Hillary Clinton
Posted on 11/02/2024
Kamala Harris heads into the final weekend of the presidential race with a narrower lead over Donald Trump than her Democratic predecessors, Joe Biden and Hillary Clinton, had at comparable points in the 2020 and 2016 races.
Polling analysis reveals that Harris' advantage in both national and swing state polls is significantly slimmer than the ones Biden and Clinton held, suggesting a very tight election on Tuesday.
A deep feeling of uncertainty is hanging over the presidential contest during the last week of the race. With four days left until Election Day, both Harris and Trump are not slowing down, campaigning furiously in battleground states.
Gap Is Narrower for Harris
With early voting already underway in numerous states, Harris maintains a modest advantage over Trump in national polling averages. According to polling analysis site FiveThirtyEight, she leads by 1.2 points, with 48 percent of likely voters indicating support for her, compared with Trump's 46.8 percent.
RealClearPolitics, however, shows Trump slightly ahead, with 48.4 percent compared with Harris' 48.1, giving him a 0.3 advantage. Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin puts Harris in the lead at 48.5 percent to Trump's 47.4, a 1.1 margin. The New York Times shows a similar result, with Harris at 49 percent to Trump's 48, a lone point in her favor.
This is a sharp contrast with the leads held by Biden and Clinton in their respective election years. In 2020, Biden led Trump by 8.4 points, according to FiveThirtyEight, consistently maintaining his lead across other polling aggregators like RealClearPolitics and 270toWin.
This trend was similar in 2016, when Clinton held a 6.2-point lead over Trump at the same point in FiveThirtyEight's model, and was echoed by other polling aggregators, like RealClearPolitics and 270toWin. However, despite winning the popular vote, Clinton lost in the Electoral College.
As Election Day approaches, Harris may lead in national polls, but her path to the necessary 270 Electoral College votes has tightened. Like Clinton in 2016, Harris may win the popular vote, but the electoral map poses challenges.
Trump, on the other hand, has gained ground in key battleground states recently. As of Friday, FiveThirtyEight's projections give the Republican nominee a 52 percent chance of winning, with Harris at 48 percent. The updated model reflected several strong polling numbers in Trump's favor in crucial swing states like Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.
Polling expert Nate Silver's forecast similarly favors Trump, showing him with 53.8 percent to Harris' 48.8 percent. Both forecasts factor in simulations that analyze voter behavior and state-by-state trends.
Polling analysis reveals that Harris' advantage in both national and swing state polls is significantly slimmer than the ones Biden and Clinton held, suggesting a very tight election on Tuesday.
A deep feeling of uncertainty is hanging over the presidential contest during the last week of the race. With four days left until Election Day, both Harris and Trump are not slowing down, campaigning furiously in battleground states.
Gap Is Narrower for Harris
With early voting already underway in numerous states, Harris maintains a modest advantage over Trump in national polling averages. According to polling analysis site FiveThirtyEight, she leads by 1.2 points, with 48 percent of likely voters indicating support for her, compared with Trump's 46.8 percent.
RealClearPolitics, however, shows Trump slightly ahead, with 48.4 percent compared with Harris' 48.1, giving him a 0.3 advantage. Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin puts Harris in the lead at 48.5 percent to Trump's 47.4, a 1.1 margin. The New York Times shows a similar result, with Harris at 49 percent to Trump's 48, a lone point in her favor.
This is a sharp contrast with the leads held by Biden and Clinton in their respective election years. In 2020, Biden led Trump by 8.4 points, according to FiveThirtyEight, consistently maintaining his lead across other polling aggregators like RealClearPolitics and 270toWin.
This trend was similar in 2016, when Clinton held a 6.2-point lead over Trump at the same point in FiveThirtyEight's model, and was echoed by other polling aggregators, like RealClearPolitics and 270toWin. However, despite winning the popular vote, Clinton lost in the Electoral College.
As Election Day approaches, Harris may lead in national polls, but her path to the necessary 270 Electoral College votes has tightened. Like Clinton in 2016, Harris may win the popular vote, but the electoral map poses challenges.
Trump, on the other hand, has gained ground in key battleground states recently. As of Friday, FiveThirtyEight's projections give the Republican nominee a 52 percent chance of winning, with Harris at 48 percent. The updated model reflected several strong polling numbers in Trump's favor in crucial swing states like Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.
Polling expert Nate Silver's forecast similarly favors Trump, showing him with 53.8 percent to Harris' 48.8 percent. Both forecasts factor in simulations that analyze voter behavior and state-by-state trends.
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