Election 2024 live updates: Latest polls show tight race in 'Blue Wall' states
Election 2024 live updates: Latest polls show tight race in 'Blue Wall' states
    Posted on 11/01/2024
Just four days to Election Day.

Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are both gathering with supporters on Friday in Wisconsin, one of the pivotal swing states that could decide the election. The Democratic and Republican nominees are even holding rallies in the same city, Milwaukee.

U.S. intelligence and law enforcement agencies announced Friday that a widely shared video purporting to show a Haitian man claiming he's illegally voted in Georgia is a piece of Russian disinformation − and they warned Americans to get ready for more video fakes from Moscow as Nov. 5 draws closer.

Trump also planned a rally Friday in Warren, Michigan, north of Detroit. Over the weekend, Trump will return to the East Coast, with campaign stops in Gastonia and Greensboro, North Carolina, and Salem, Virginia.

Harris is scheduled to return to Atlanta on Saturday for a rally before heading to Charlotte, North Carolina, on the last day of early voting in the state before Nov. 5.

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Women’s March to host events Saturday before election

Thousands are expected to attend a #WeWontGoBack march in the nation’s capital and at locations across the country Saturday.

Attendees in Washington plan to march from Freedom Plaza to the White House beginning at 3 p.m. ET. The event will also feature mobile truck billboards reading, “We Won’t Back Down on Abortion,” according to organizers.

The march falls three days before the Nov. 5 election, capping a race that has been defined by a historic gender divide.

The Women’s March started as a worldwide protest on Jan. 21, 2017, the day after former President Donald Trump’s inauguration. Crowd scientists estimated the Washington march drew over 470,000 people and that millions participated in local marches nationwide.

−Rachel Barber

Climate change on voters’ minds after hurricanes, poll finds

Voters in states affected by Hurricanes Helene and Milton might be thinking more about climate change when they cast a ballot next Tuesday.

In North Carolina, Florida, and Georgia, 32% of voters said recent storms made climate a more important issue, according to a Climate Cabinet poll released Friday. That is 4% higher than the national average.

Across the country, 51% of respondents said they believed extreme weather events are becoming more frequent because of man-made climate change. Only 21% said an increase in extreme weather events is not caused by man-made climate change.

The poll of 1,000 voters in each state, totaling 3,000, had a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points. The national poll of 2,000 adults had a margin of error of +/- 2 percentage points.

−Rachel Barber

Russian misinformation video gaining traction in Georgia, intelligence officials say

A video claiming that Haitian nationals are voting illegally in multiple counties in Georgia is a work Russian misinformation, multiple intelligence agencies wrote in a joint statement Friday.

The statement from the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, the Cyber Infrastructure and Security Agency, and the FBI came in addition to public comments from the Georgia Secretary of State’s office identifying the video as false.

“This Russian activity is part of Moscow’s broader effort to raise unfounded questions about the integrity of the US election and stoke divisions among Americans,” the statement said, warning that the coming days could see “additional media content that seeks to undermine trust in the integrity of the election and divide Americans.”

More:US intelligence says Russia is behind video of ballots being destroyed in Pennsylvania

Gabriel Sterling, chief operations officer for Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, also refuted the claims on X after it was shared to the account of Amy Kremer, a Georgia resident whose organization coordinated Donald Trump's Jan. 6, 2021, rally on the Ellipse.

“No responsible person would retweet this ridiculously obvious lie and disinformation,” Sterling said. “Those doing so are acting to further the efforts of America’s enemies and undermine the security of our nation.”

−Erin Mansfield

Schumer predicts Dem Senate wins in Texas, Florida and... Nebraska?

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer told supporters earlier this week that he thinks Democrats could flip three seats on Election Day, despite the party's steep odds to retain control of the chamber.

Democrats have "decent changes" of picking up Texas, Florida and Nebraska, Schumer said during a virtual rally Wednesday. The remarks were first reported by POLITICO.

More:Nebraska independent Dan Osborn could be poised to shake up U.S. Senate

However, the candidate running against incumbent GOP Sen. Deb Fischer in Nebraska is a registered nonpartisan and has said he won't caucus with either party. Independent candidate Dan Osborn told POLITICO Friday that Schumer will get "a rude awakening if he thinks I'm taking orders from him."

Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, is running against Democratic Rep. Colin Allred, while Sen. Rick Scott, R-Fla., is up against former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell. Both GOP candidates have a small advantage in the polls against their Democratic opponents.

-- Riley Beggin

Vance opens Michigan rally with shot at Mark Cuban

Ohio Sen. JD Vance opened his rally in Portage, Michigan, on Friday by taking on billionaire Mark Cuban’s comments that Trump doesn’t surround himself with “strong, intelligent women, ever.”

The vice presidential candidate called out his wife Usha Vance, who made an appearance with him.

“I thought to myself, 'Well, Mark, you know my wife is way out of your league,'” said Vance, adding that he’s especially grateful that she’s with him at the rally.

More:This NBA team owner among richest donors of this election cycle. How much has she given?

“So is Melania Trump, by the way. So is Susie Wiles, who's running the Trump campaign,” Vance said.

Cuban made his remarks on “The View” Thursday, and later apologized on X, formerly Twitter.

“When I said this during the interview, I didn't get it out exactly the way I thought I did,” he wrote.

−Sudiksha Kochi

Legendary presidential forecaster has 'crows' in his stomach

Historian Allan Lichtman, who accurately predicted nine of the last 10 presidential elections, said he still thinks Kamala Harris will beat Donald Trump but that he feels particularly anxious this year.

"I've been doing this for 42 years and every four years I have butterflies in my stomach," he said in a video on his YouTube channel. "This year, I think I have a flock of crows in my stomach."

Lichtman said the candidates' neck-and-neck polling in key swing states does not make him nervous but that he is worried about the fragility of the country's democracy.

Both presidential campaigns have cast their rival as a "threat to democracy" during the 2024 cycle. Trump has called Harris a "communist" and Harris has called Trump a "fascist."

-- Rachel Barber

Harris narrowly leads Trump in three ‘blue wall’ states, Marist polls find

Vice President Kamala Harris holds narrow leads in Pennsylvania, Michigan in Wisconsin four days from the presidential election, according to new polls of the three "blue wall" states released Friday by Marist College that show the Democratic nominee gaining with independent voters.

In Pennsylvania, Harris is ahead of Republican nominee Donald Trump 50%-48% among likely voters, Marist found, and leads Trump 51%-48% in Michigan and 50%-48% in Wisconsin.

The polls − some of the most encouraging surveys for Harris in recent days − were taken Oct. 27 to Oct. 30. Each result is within the polls' margins of errors of plus or minus 3.2 percentage points in Pennsylvania, 3.5 percentage points in Michigan and 3.4 percentage points in Wisconsin.

Harris is buoyed in the polls by independent voters shifting her direction. In Pennsylvania, Harris leads 55%-40% with independents, Marist found, a turnaround after Trump had a 4-point advantage with Pennsylvania's independent voters in September. Harris leads among independent voters 52%-46% in Michigan and 51%-46% in Wisconsin.

--Joey Garrison

Trump and Harris are both in a tight race in Nevada

A new Emerson College/RealClearWorld poll released Friday found that among 700 likely voters, 48% said they would back Harris and 47% said they would back Trump. Two percent said they support a third-party, two percent said they were undecided and one percent said they won’t vote for either candidate.

The poll also highlighted the notable gender gap between the campaigns.

“Men and women in Nevada break in near opposite directions,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said in a news release. “Men break for Trump by nine percentage points, 52% to 43%, while women break for Harris by eight points, 52 to 44%.”

The poll was conducted between Oct. 29 and Oct. 31. Both candidates are within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points.

-- Sudiksha Kochi

Rep. Debbie Dingell says 2024 election is the tightest she’s seen

Michigan Democratic Rep. Debbie Dingell said on CNN This Morning on Friday that she’s been through enough elections to say that she’s “never seen a tighter election.”

Dingell famously warned Democrats during the 2016 election that then candidate Hillary Clinton was in trouble with Michigan voters, and later wrote in an op-ed that the party didn’t listen.

Both Trump and Harris are deadlocked in the state, numerous polls show. A USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll found that Harris and Trump are tied, 47% to 47%, among 500 likely voters.

Dingell said that Trump is working the state “very hard” and said that it was Michigan that delivered his presidency in 2016. She praised Harris for making “significant progress” with different groups including union workers.

“I think that the African American community is much more engaged than I saw them a month ago. The Hispanic community, which quite frankly, wasn't as energized has become energized this week, but there are other issues on the ground, so we just have a lot of work to do between now and Tuesday night when those polls close,” Dingell said.

-- Sudiksha Kochi

Brad Raffensperger warns of foreign interference in election, debunks viral video

Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger issued a statement on Thurday night addressing a viral video that he said purportedly featured a Haitan immigrant claiming to have voted multiple times.

“This is false and is an example of targeted disinformation we’ve seen in this and other elections,” he said. “It is likely foreign interference attempting to sow discord and chaos on the eve of the 2024 Presidential election.”

He added that the Cybsecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency is investigating the origin of the video, and said it is likely “a production of Russian troll farms.”

Raffensperger also called on the leaders of social media platforms, including Elon Musk, to take the video down.

-- Sudiksha Kochi

Senate poll roundup: Democrats have narrow edge in Rust Belt, Southwest

Democratic Senate candidates continue to poll ahead of their GOP opponents in tight races in the Rust Belt and Southwest.

Incumbent Sen. Bob Casey, D-Pa., polled 3 points ahead of Republican Dave McCormick in a new poll from USA TODAY and Suffolk University conducted from Oct. 27 to 30 with a margin of error of +/- 5.65 percentage points.

Casey also polled ahead of McCormick by 2 percentage points in a new poll from Marist conducted Oct. 27 to 30 with a margin of error of +/- 3.4 percentage points.

Because both poll results are within the margin of error, it means the candidates could also reasonably be tied or McCormick could be slightly ahead.

Two other new polls from Marist conducted over the same time frame in Michigan and Wisconsin show Democratic candidates there -- Rep. Elissa Slotkin in Michigan and Sen. Tammy Baldwin in Wisconsin -- beating their GOP opponents former Rep. Mike Rogers and businessman Eric Hovde by 6 and 3 percentage points respectively.

The Michigan poll has a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percentage points and the Wisconsin poll has a margin of error of +/- 3.4 percentage points.

And incumbent Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen is polling ahead of Republican nominee Sam Brown by 4 percentage points in Nevada, according to a new Emerson College poll with a margin of error of +/- 3.6 percentage points. That poll was conducted Oct. 29 to 31.

-- Riley Beggin

Jennifer Lopez says ‘every Latino in this country’ offended by Trump’s Madison Square Garden rally

Actress and singer Jennifer Lopez said at Harris’ rally in Las Vegas, Nevada, on Thursday that Trump has “consistently worked to divide us.”

She referenced Trump’s Madison Square Garden rally, during which comedian Tony Hinchcliffe called Puerto Rico a “floating island of garbage.” Lopez’s parents are both from Puerto Rico.

“At Madison Square Garden, he reminded us who he really is and how he really feels,” Lopez said, referring to Trump. “It wasn’t just Puerto Ricans who were offended that day, OK? It was every Latino in this country, it was humanity and anyone of decent character.”

She then urged the crowd to get out to vote.

“You know what? We should be emotional. We should be upset. We should be scared and outraged. We should. Our pain matters. We matter,” Lopez said. “Your voice and your vote matters.”

-- Sudiksha Kochi

Liz Cheney blasts Trump on X for ‘war hawk’ comment

Former Republican Rep. Liz Cheney criticized Trump on X, formerly Twitter, after he called her a “war hawk” and said that guns should be “trained on her face.”

“This is how dictators destroy free nations. They threaten those who speak against them with death. We cannot entrust our country and our freedom to a petty, vindictive, cruel, unstable man who wants to be a tyrant,” Cheney wrote on X with the hashtags #Womenwillnotbesilenced and #VoteKamala.

Trump made the comments during an interview with former Fox host Tucker Carlson at an event in Glendale, Arizona. He claimed that she wanted to keep American troops in Syria and Iraq.

“She’s a radical war hawk. Let’s put her with a rifle standing there with nine barrels shooting at her, OK?,” he said. “Let’s see how she feels about it, you know, when the guns are trained on her face.”

Trump’s disparaging rhetoric about his political opponents has increased with the Nov. 5 general election approaching - with the Cheney comments being the latest. He’s previously labeled his opponents “garbage” and “human scum.”

Cheney, one of Trump’s most vocal critics, endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris and has been campaigning with her in recent weeks. She was previously the vice chair of the now-dissolved House select committee investigating the Capitol attack on Jan. 6, 2021, and has condemned the former president’s actions on that day.

-- Sudiksha Kochi

How will election affect Trump's legal fate?

Former President Donald Trump is involved in four criminal cases, but the most important verdict in his legal future may be delivered on Election Day on Tuesday. If he wins, all his charges could be dropped or postponed for at least four years. If he loses, he potentially faces swift sentencing in one case and trials in the other three.

If Trump were not a candidate for president, his legal trouble would be unavoidable. He is currently scheduled to be sentenced Nov. 26 on 34 felony counts in his New York hush money case. Two trials loom − one in federal court in Washington, D.C., and one in Georgia state court − on charges he tried to steal the 2020 election. In Florida, a Trump-appointed federal judge dismissed charges that Trump mishandled classified documents after leaving the White House. But that reprieve could be temporary, as prosecutors appealed the decision.

-Bart Jansen and Aysha Bagchi

Harris and Trump neck and neck in Pennsylvania

With days before Tuesday's Election Day, Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are neck-and-neck in Pennsylvania, one of several key swing states that could determine the winner, a new exclusive USA TODAY/Suffolk poll shows.

Harris and Trump are tied with 49% of the vote each, according to a statewide poll of 500 likely voters conducted from Oct. 27 to 30 with a margin of error of 4.4 percentage points.

A poll of 300 likely voters in Erie County, which could indicate which way the state trends, was also tied 48% to 48%. Northampton County, another Pennsylvania bellwether, leaned slightly towards Trump, with 50% saying they supported him, to Harris' 48%. The results of the county polls are within the margin of error of 5.65 percentage points.

--Cybele Mayes-Osterman and Karissa Waddick

Where do Trump and Harris stand in the polls?

The 2024 race for the White House is set to be neck-and-neck until Election Day. In Real Clear Politics' average of national polls, Donald Trump leads Kamala Harris by just 0.5 percentage points, well within the margin of error for each of the surveys included.

It's even closer in some of the crucial battleground states. For example, Harris leads Trump by 0.2 percentage points in Real Clear Politics' average of Wisconsin polls.

– Marina Pitofsky

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Where is Trump campaigning on Friday?

Donald Trump is holding a rally Friday afternoon in Warren, Michigan, located north of Detroit. Trump won Michigan in the 2016 race for the White House, but President Joe Biden picked it up in the 2020 contest.

Trump will hold a Friday evening rally in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, another crucial midwestern state he won in 2016 but lost in 2020.

– Marina Pitofsky

Where is Harris campaigning on Friday?

In her fifth visit to the Milwaukee area since launching her presidential campaign, Kamala Harris will host a rally in the Wisconsin city Friday with a slate of musical performers.

Cardi B is listed as a guest speaker for the event. Flo Milli, the Isley Brothers, MC Lyte, GloRilla and others are set to perform for the swing state crowd.

– Maia Pandey
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