Where the jobs were lost/gained: Health care and government, two of the three major drivers of job growth in recent years, continued to add employment, showing increases of 51,300 jobs and 40,000 jobs, respectively.

The third leg of that stool, leisure and hospitality, however, lost 4,000 jobs. Given Florida’s tourism-centric economy, this was one industry expected to show the impacts from the hurricanes.

The construction industry also appears to have been weakened by storm activity as well, noted Dean Baker, senior economist at the Center for Economic and Policy Research. That sector recorded a net gain of 8,000 jobs, but has averaged 20,000 this year through September, he said.

The largest job losses occurred in temporary help services (-48,500); professional and business services (-47,000); and manufacturing (-46,000). BLS noted that the manufacturing jobs declined due to strike activity.

Labor force participation: The percentage of the working-age population that is employed or seeking a job ticked down to 62.6% from 62.7% in October. That rate has bounced between 62.5% and 62.7% all year.

The employment to population ratio edged down as well, to 60% from 60.2%, BLS data shows.

A little more than 81% of native-born residents between the ages of 25 and 54 were employed in October, near the record share seen in June 2023, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data analyzed by Ernie Tedeschi, a former chief economist at the White House Council of Economic Advisers under the Biden administration.

The ratio is also higher than at any point in the Trump administration, Tedeschi, now the director of economics at The Budget Lab at Yale University, told CNN. (The agency began publishing native- and foreign-born employment by age in 2007.)

Employment among native-born Americans has become a talking point in the 2024 presidential campaign, with former President Donald Trump and his allies highlighting that overall employment among the native born has dropped in the past year or so, while it has shot up for the foreign born.

Looking at foreign-born residents in their prime working years, nearly 78% were employed in October, also relatively close to its historically high share in the spring of 2023, Tedeschi found. (The foreign-born includes citizens, permanent residents and undocumented immigrants.)

Examining just prime-age workers factors out the aging of the native-born population, which would depress the share of those employed even if labor market conditions remained steady, Tedeschi said.

The tight labor market of recent years has helped all workers — particularly the native born, he said.

“Native-born workers are among the first workers that are going to be lifted up by a strong labor market,” he said.

US stocks were higher in late morning trading on Friday as investors, buoyed by strong tech earnings, shrugged off a disappointing jobs report and looked forward to next week’s presidential election and Federal Reserve policy decision.

The S&P 500 was 1% higher; the Dow rose by more than 500 points, or 1.2%; and the Nasdaq was up by 1.3%.

“This morning’s Nonfarm Payrolls report for October certainly should be taken with a grain of salt, or possibly a whole shaker,” said Rick Polsinello, senior market strategist at the FT Institute in a note Friday. “It appears that this drop was significantly affected by hurricanes Helene and Milton, and to a lesser extent by the Boeing strike…The unemployment rate stayed steady at 4.1%, as it is not affected by storms and strikes. Also, hourly earnings were up 4% from a year earlier.”

Investors still largely expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point at the conclusion of their meeting next Wednesday.

Many Republicans have asserted — without any proof — that when initial estimates of monthly job gains are later revised down by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, as has been the case with many months of data lately, it intentionally masks the true state of the economy at the time in order to help bolster Democrats’ case to voters.

That’s very much not what’s been going on, though. In fact, the BLS, which is housed under the Department of Labor, and other federal units such as the Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis, are required to “function in an environment that is clearly separate and autonomous from the other administrative, regulatory, law enforcement, or policy-making activities within their respective Departments,” per an Office of Management and Budget directive. And the revisions that come with every job report are simply happening because the BLS gets more complete information that often changes its original estimates.

The October jobs report was no exception: The estimated number of new hires in September and August was revised down Friday by a total of 112,000. Republican Sen. Marco Rubio from Florida posted Friday morning on X that the latest revisions were a sign that the initial estimates were manipulated to make the economy under the Biden-Harris administration appear better than in reality.

Read more here.

There were an estimated 7.4 million unfilled jobs on the last day of September, a drop from August’s revised tally of 7.86 million openings, according to new data released Tuesday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The largest drop-offs in openings were in industries that have driven much of the job growth in recent years: health care and social assistance, and government, according to the report.

Economists were expecting the number of job openings to land at around 7.9 million, declining from the prior month’s initial estimate of 8.04 million, according to FactSet estimates.

The decline in job openings reflects a labor market that has slowed back to a pre-pandemic pace after experiencing years of blockbuster growth: The rate of openings as a percentage of total employment mirrors what was seen throughout much of 2018 and 2019, BLS data shows.

“Decreasing or subdued job openings, quits and hiring rates last month all point to a cooler labor market compared to one year ago,” Elizabeth Renter, senior economist for NerdWallet, wrote in commentary issued Tuesday. “Employers aren’t bringing many folks on, and workers aren’t super eager to leave the comforts of their existing roles in the current environment.”

Read more here.

US employers added just 12,000 jobs last month, according to the government’s latest tally. But that figure will very likely get revised.

Monthly payroll figures have tended to get revised lower after they were initially reported. For example, job growth in August and September were revised down by a sizable 112,000 total jobs, according to Friday’s data. An annual benchmark review of employment data showed there were 818,000 fewer jobs added in the year ended in March 2024 than were initially reported, the largest downward revision since 2009.

But that might not be the case for October. In 2017 when major hurricanes hit the United States, initial employment figures showed steep job losses, but those were later revised upward when more data was collected. Natural disasters affect the data collection process and the Labor Department states in every jobs report that revisions “result from additional reports received from businesses and government agencies since the last published estimates and from the recalculation of seasonal factors.”

“In a hurricane, the top priority is not sending your numbers into BLS,” Claudia Sahm, chief economist at New Century Advisors, told CNN’s Alicia Wallace previously. “The estimates in a natural disaster tend to get more imprecise.”

Initial employment figures are not inflated intentionally for political purposes.

Americans’ paychecks grew in October at the fastest annual pace in five months.

Workers made $35.46 an hour in October, on average, which was up 13 cents from September, or 0.4%. From a year earlier, average hourly earnings were up by a robust 4%, the highest annual rate since May. That’s also the third consecutive month of accelerating annual wage growth.

A red-hot job market was previously seen as a source of inflation pressure, with economists frequently pointing to the possibility of employers passing rising labor costs onto consumers. But inflation has come down substantially over the past two years and other factors pushing up inflation, such as housing costs, have been more of an obstacle for the Federal Reserve’s mission to rein in price pressures.

That means faster wage growth, which now translates to even higher real earnings, is all around good news for the US economy and the American worker.

US markets opened higher Friday morning following the weakest jobs report since December 2020.

Investors, say analysts, are simply focused on other things.

“Markets can likely park the October jobs report to the side,” wrote Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management, in a note Friday. “Quite clearly, the hurricane has taken a heavy toll on the numbers, clouding the picture of labor market strength, and so should not impact the Fed’s policy rate path.”

Big tech, meanwhile, sent major indexes higher after Amazon and Intel delivered-better than-expected third-quarter earnings reports.

The S&P 500 opened 0.4% higher; the Dow was up 191 points, or 0.5%; and the Nasdaq gained 0.5%.

Markets soared higher as investors shrugged off the morning’s jobs data. Here’s what analysts and strategists are telling their clients about the news:

“In spite of the weak headline number, today’s report shouldn’t raise alarm bells for job seekers, workers, or policymakers — especially if the hurricane and strike impacts prove temporary. If future reports are similarly weak, with limited job gains and persistent downward revisions to prior data, then that will be real cause for concern. But for now, a soft landing is still on the table, though it will require stronger job gains and steady unemployment in the coming months. For policymakers, this report is not likely to shift plans too much, but we can probably expect to see more interest rate cuts and support for the labor market on the horizon.” Cory Stahle, economist at Indeed Hiring Lab

“The big picture is that the labor market continues to cool down (even beyond hurricane effects), and this should keep the Fed on pace for rate cuts in November and December. Payrolls are likely to rebound in November, and we’ll ultimately have to take the average of October and November for more clarity.” Sonu Varghese, global macro strategist at Carson Group

“Markets can likely park the October jobs report to the side. Quite clearly, the hurricane has taken a heavy toll on the numbers, clouding the picture of labor market strength, and so should not impact the Fed’s policy rate path. And yet, a deeper ponder of the numbers suggests that, beneath all the noise and disruption, is a fundamentally slowing labor market. The consensus forecast for a 100,000 increase in payrolls was already taking the hurricane effect into account, so the significant downside surprise indicates underlying weakness.” Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management

“Strikes and storms weighed on this month’s jobs data with jobs growth surprising to the downside and the unemployment rate staying put. While the Fed will likely attribute some of the weakness in today’s data to one-off factors, the softness in today’s data argues for the Fed to continue its easing cycle at next week’s meeting. Stormy numbers but sky clearing for November [quarter of a percentage point] cut.” Lindsay Rosner, head of multi sector fixed income investing at Goldman Sachs Asset Management

The government’s latest employment figures were skewed by the effects of recent hurricanes and labor strikes, but when factoring out that noise, it’s clear that job growth is slowing. That keeps the Federal Reserve comfortably on track to cut interest rates again next week.

Employers added just 12,000 jobs last month, the Labor Department reported Friday, the weakest monthly gain since December 2020. The department said in a release that a loss of 44,000 manufacturing jobs last month was “largely due to strike activity,” so, even if those were added back to October’s total, it would still point to a month of tepid payroll growth. Job growth in August and September was also revised down by at total of 112,000 jobs.

“For the Fed, the most actionable part of the October jobs report is the revisions to August and September data,” Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica Bank, said in commentary Friday. “They confirm that the labor market has cooled, and will reinforce the Fed’s view that there are equal risks to their maximum employment mandate as to their mandate for stable prices.”

Fed officials have said in recent speeches they’re trying to prevent the job market from deteriorating — and that interest rates are still at restrictively high levels. The Fed is responsible for promoting maximum employment, in addition to stabilizing prices.

The futures market is currently pricing in with near certainty that the Fed will deliver a quarter-point rate cut next week.

“This is not the clarifying report on the economy that Americans and markets needed before next week’s election to answer whether voters are better off than they were four years ago,” said Chris Rupkey, chief economist at Fwdbonds.

While striking workers and a negative impact on data collection from two major hurricanes both had a major effect on the jobs total, “it will take another month to see just how much the labor market stalled, if at all,” he wrote in commentary issued Friday morning.

“The message today is that the labor market has stalled for technical reasons, the Boeing strike and hurricanes, but the rest of the economy continues to expand at a moderate pace,” he said, citing robust consumer spending, strong GDP and inflation close to the Federal Reserve’s target.

Yes, this was a muddied-up report, and we’ll have to wait a month or two for the dust to settle from bad collection data, two hurricanes and a massive strike to fully understand what truly happened last month in the labor market.

But no matter how much sugar we pour on this lousy data to coat it, it’s also just not a great jobs report. Hiring has been trending lower over the past year. The US economy has added an average of 170,000 jobs each month so far this year. That’s pretty good, but down from 251,000 last year and 377,000 in 2022 as the economy was recovering from the effects of the pandemic.

But hiring has slowed even further in recent months. Four of the five past months have been below or well below the year’s average — particularly last month’s 12,000 new jobs.

So we shouldn’t get unnecessarily worked up over one bad month of data. But we don’t need to bend over backwards to say this is actually really good news, either. The job market is strong, but slowing, as the Federal Reserve intended with its series of rate hikes to tamp down inflation. But any weaker job growth could present a political problem to the next president.

In addition to last month’s sluggish job growth, in part because of the effects of Hurricanes Helene and Milton as well as ongoing strikes, the government also revised down August and September job gains by a total of 112,000.

Employers were previously estimated to have hired 159,000 new workers in August. Now, they’re believed to have hired closer to 78,000, according to the new estimates published in the October jobs report. And hiring in September was revised down by 31,000 to 223,000.

Revisions like these are common and a standard part of the Labor Department’s goal to provide the best possible estimate of the state of the labor market. That can often change as it receives more information at later points. However, some Republicans claimed — without proof — that it is a sign the department is putting out biased initial reports.

Even though job growth slowed last month to just 12,000 from a revised 223,000 in September, the unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%. While this may sound contradictory, it’s not uncommon for there to be months when job growth becomes more sluggish and the unemployment rate doesn’t rise.

That’s because the two monthly data points are products of two different surveys.

The unemployment rate is calculated from household survey data where individuals are asked about their employment situation. The number of new hires is calculated from business survey data where employers are asked about how many employees they have on their payrolls.

We knew this was going to be a bad jobs report. Predicting just how bad was tricky business for the very reasons that made this a bad jobs report: Lousy data collection.

Typically, the Bureau of Labor Statistics collects data over a range of up to 16 days — but this past month it collected data in just 10 days. That exacerbated the effects of hurricanes that put many people out of work, along with a substantial strike against Boeing. So to say this past month’s number might not be what it seems is an understatement.

Two massive hurricanes that affected wide swaths of America’s Southeast made the jobs survey difficult to conduct. It’s often hard to get people to respond to a survey when they’re displaced or picking up the pieces from a disaster. However, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said that didn’t affect this past month’s survey so much — the short collection period affected the number much more.

The US labor market has shown continued resilience and stability.

Job gains have slowed (as has been expected) from the gangbuster days of the pandemic recovery; but despite the dual pressures of fast-rising prices and inflation-fighting high interest rates, the job market hasn’t collapsed.

Hiring: Monthly totals for July and August came in lower than expected. There was a bounce-back in September, but plenty of questions remain as to how much that strength will stick.

Quitting: Employees aren’t leaving their jobs as freely as before and job openings rates are mirroring those seen in 2018 and 2019, according to the latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Layoffs: They have remained pretty low. The number of people who applied for first-time unemployment benefits fell by 12,000 to 216,000 for the week ending October 26, according to Department of Labor data released Thursday morning. That’s lower than the forecasted 227,000. The latest job cuts report from Challenger, Gray & Christmas showed that layoff announcements dropped nearly 24% in October from September (but were 4% higher than a year ago).

Longer-term unemployment: The number of people continuing to receive unemployment benefits also declined, falling by 26,000 to 1.86 million for the week ending October 19. Economists were expecting continuing claims to rise to 1.94 million.

Private sector: Payroll processor ADP reported Wednesday that job gains in the private sector soared to 233,000 in October, a far higher total than the 108,000 forecast.

US stocks, buoyed by strong tech earnings, surged higher in premarket trading on Friday ahead of October’s jobs report.

Shares of Amazon gained about 6.5% after the tech titan beat Wall Street’s earnings expectations late Thursday. Intel, meanwhile, was nearly 5% higher after reporting strong earnings and lifting forward guidance.

Next week brings the US presidential election and the Federal Reserve’s next interest rate policy decision. But for now, investors are focused on jobs data due out at 8:30 am ET.

The last jobs report was much stronger than expected and brought positive revisions from months prior, but US economists are predicting that today’s report will be weaker due to striking workers and the lasting effects of Hurricanes Milton and Helene.

Still, “for markets, the jobs report is likely to be a relatively straightforward case of ‘good news is good news’, and vice versa, with participants set to focus on the macroeconomic picture painted by the data, as opposed to any potential dovish policy implications from a soft print,” said Michael Brown, senior research strategist at Pepperstone.

There’s little at this stage, he added, that could deter the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates next week.

It’s entirely possible that Friday’s jobs report, set to be released at 8:30 am ET, could be downright abstract.

The impacts and ripple effects of two major hurricanes and several labor strikes (including a massive one at Boeing) are expected to weigh heavily on the October employment numbers.

Economists’ crystal balls are cloudy, and estimates for the headline number vary widely, with some saying the economy could even have lost jobs last month. However, a common thread among economists is that the strikes and hurricanes could take a 100,000-job bite out of the October jobs report.

As of Thursday morning, FactSet consensus estimates were for a net gain of 112,500 jobs in October. That would mark a sharp drop-off from the surprisingly strong preliminary estimate of 254,000 jobs added in September.

The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 4.1%.

There are a few knowns and a boatload of unknowns in the shocks that could distort October’s payroll numbers.

What’s known: What’s known: Striking aerospace machinists and hotel workers are expected to reduce the October employment counts by more than 40,000 jobs, according to the BLS’ latest strike report. In October, there were 41,400 new striking workers (the lion’s share at Boeing) in addition to an ongoing video game voice actor strike.

On October 11, Boeing, which has the lion’s share of striking workers, announced plans to cut its workforce by 10%, or 17,000 jobs. Based on the timing of that announcement alone, none of those cuts will detract from October’s employment tally.

What’s unknown: Businesses don’t operate in a vacuum, so if operations dwindle or grind to a halt without their workers, that will ripple through to other firms.

The Boeing strike, for example, has potentially resulted in 5,000 to 7,000 layoffs at non-Boeing companies in Washington and Oregon, but it’s hard to know the full extent, Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM US, told CNN.

The biggest unknown will be the impact from the hurricanes. The last time there were back-to-back major hurricanes — Harvey and Irma in 2017 — the forecasts for the following month’s jobs report were for a loss of 33,000 positions.

That September 2017 reading was later revised upward once more information had been obtained. In addition to the direct and devastating impacts that keep people out of work, weather events also impact the BLS’ ability to collect data from businesses and households.

“In a hurricane, the top priority is not sending your numbers into BLS,” Claudia Sahm, chief economist at New Century Advisors, told CNN in an interview. “The estimates in a natural disaster tend to get more imprecise.”

Expect to see the ripple effects of two major hurricanes in Friday’s data.

A little over two weeks ago, as the Southeast was reeling from the destruction laid by Hurricane Helene, Florida was bracing for even worse from the monstrous Hurricane Milton. Although Milton’s impact wasn’t as catastrophic as initially feared, the one-two punch of Helene and Milton was indeed truly devastating to the Southeast, resulting in losses of lives and billions of dollars in damage.

The broader impacts to the US economy are expected to be short-lived. Storms and other one-time events can typically ding GDP before delivering a similar, if not bigger, rebound in the following quarter.

When it comes to economic data — which is being watched like a hawk by the Federal Reserve in its years-long inflation fight and by the general public in advance of a tight and contentious election — the timing of the strikes and hurricanes couldn’t be worse.

However, the resilience seen after the late-September landfall of Helene — as well as the on-the-ground assistance and direct payments — meant that people and businesses were able to get back to work sooner than anticipated, Joe Brusuelas, chief economist and principal at RSM US, told CNN. The BLS’ reference period for the jobs report is the pay period that includes the 12th of the month.

Compensation growth for American workers cooled to 3.9% on an annual seasonally adjusted basis last quarter from 4.1% in the prior quarter, according to new figures from the Department of Labor’s Employment Cost Index released Thursday morning.

Economists polled by FactSet were anticipating compensation to grow at a 4% pace last quarter.

Nevertheless, employee compensation growth continues to outpace inflation, which is growing at a 2.1% annual rate, according to the latest Personal Consumption Expenditures price index figures that were also released Thursday morning.

On a quarterly basis, compensation rose by 0.8%, a decline from the 0.9% pace seen in the prior quarter.

Federal Reserve officials have been closely tracking compensation data because it can foreshadow the path of inflation, which is influenced by how much money Americans have to spend. Since compensation growth has continued to cool from a peak of 5.1% in the second quarter of 2022, inflation has also edged down, albeit with some bumps along the way.

The US economy seems to have pulled off a remarkable and historic achievement: a soft landing, where inflation is tamed without a recession.

Gross domestic product, which measures all the goods and services produced in the economy, expanded at an annualized rate of 2.8% in the third quarter, the Commerce Department said Wednesday. That’s a slightly weaker pace than the second quarter’s 3% rate and above the 2.6% rate economists projected in a FactSet poll. GDP is adjusted for seasonal swings and inflation.

Wednesday’s report comes after earlier data showed the economy added a whopping 254,000 jobs in September, inflation is a whisper away from the Federal Reserve’s 2% target and consumer confidence jumped this month by the fastest clip since March 2021, according to The Conference Board — all signs of a robust economy.

“I think we should declare a soft landing now,” said James Bullard, former president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, in an interview with CNN earlier this month.

He’s one of several economists and officials who told CNN the economy has finally pulled off that scenario.

A White House official on a call with reporters Wednesday morning said annual average economic growth during the Biden-Harris administration has been stronger than any administration this century.

Read more here.

Private sector hiring blew past expectations in October, another sign that the US labor market remains on solid footing, payroll processor ADP reported Wednesday.

Non-governmental employers added 233,000 jobs in October, a sharp acceleration from the 159,000 net increase reported for September, according to ADP’s latest National Employment Report.

“In a month that promised to be super messy with double-hit hurricanes, we are seeing that the national labor market was strong and broadly robust,” Nela Richardson, chief economist at ADP, said Wednesday during a call with reporters.

Wednesday’s gains throttled economists’ expectations for job growth to slow to a mere 108,000 jobs from the initial estimate of 143,000, FactSet estimates show.

Job gains were fully expected to drop off in October not only because of an ongoing slowdown in the labor market but also because the month’s data could likely be influenced by three major events and their ripple effects: the ongoing Boeing machinists’ strike, Hurricane Helene and Hurricane Milton.

Read more here.