Harris and Trump — and their surrogates — pour into Wisconsin in final stretch
Posted on 10/31/2024
MADISON, Wisconsin — In Green Bay, former President Donald Trump took the stage in a bright orange safety vest and promised to protect women — whether they “like it or not.” In Madison, 140 miles away, Vice President Kamala Harris touched on her parents’ stint teaching at the flagship university here and invoked the state’s motto — “forward” — as a stand-in for her own “we’re not going back.”
It was all part of the candidates’ closing messages in their battle over 10 potentially crucial Electoral College votes.
The dueling rallies came as the presidential campaigns ratchet up attention on Wisconsin in the closing days of an extremely close race. Harris holds the slimmest of leads over Trump in the critical swing state, according to polling averages Wednesday. And in a sign of how important Wisconsin is, they’re both expected back here on Friday.
Wisconsin was the closest of the three Blue Wall states in 2020, with now-President Joe Biden carrying it by not even 21,000 votes, compared with a roughly 80,000-vote difference in Pennsylvania and a 154,000-vote margin in Michigan.
But Wisconsin is also the smallest prize of the bunch — offering the winner just 10 electoral votes compared with Michigan’s 15 and Pennsylvania’s holy grail of 19. And so, as Trump and Harris barrel down the home stretch of the 2024 contest, neither campaign has treated Wisconsin as the top prize — spending more of their time and money elsewhere.
Not that Wisconsinites have noticed.
“Nobody here feels ignored,” said Mark Graul, a GOP strategist based in the state.
“There’s so much money in these campaigns now, so many outside groups in these campaigns now, and the playing field is so narrow now,” Graul said. “We don’t need any more visits, we don’t need any more ads, we’re ready to count votes.”
Since launching her campaign in mid-July, Harris and her running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, have collectively spent more time in Wisconsin than their Republican rivals. Before Wednesday’s concert extravaganza in Madison, Harris had visited the state seven times, including holding an event last week with Republican former Rep. Liz Cheney of Wyoming as part of a series aimed at winning over independents and disaffected Republican voters. Walz had also visited the state seven times as of Wednesday.
Trump visited Wisconsin five times after the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, packing four events into a nine-day span across the end of September and early October. But before his sixth visit on Wednesday, the Republican nominee had not been seen in the state since Oct. 6, instead relying on a bevy of surrogates and state party officials to campaign on his behalf. His running mate, Ohio Sen. JD Vance, has also prioritized other states over Wisconsin, though he campaigned in Wausau and Racine on Monday.
A POLITICO analysis of ad spending by both campaigns from July 22 through Oct. 30 also shows them doling out more dollars elsewhere. Wisconsin accounts for the fifth-largest share of both campaigns’ ad spending across the seven core swing states. Harris and Trump have each spent the most in Pennsylvania, followed by Michigan, Georgia and Arizona for the Democrat, and North Carolina, Georgia and Michigan for the Republican.
But the campaigns are barnstorming Wisconsin this week: Trump will make his return on Friday to Fiserv Forum, where he accepted his third presidential nomination back in July, after rallying with football legend Brett Favre in Green Bay on Wednesday. Harris, meanwhile, hosted a star-studded “Badgers for Harris-Walz” rally in deep-blue Madison on Wednesday and is scheduled to return to the state on Friday.
And both campaigns have sent their highest-profile surrogates to the state. Former President Barack Obama joined Walz for a rally in Madison last week to promote early voting. Former President Bill Clinton is scheduled to campaign in Oshkosh and Milwaukee on Thursday to encourage the same. And Harris’ campaign is sending a group of former Republican elected officials and former Trump administration officials across the state on Friday. Vance has also made repeated visits to the Badger state, and Trump surrogates like Reps. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) and Troy Nehls (R-Texas) have flown in for a bus tour and town hall.
“I’m sure they’re trying to, on both sides, gauge where they need to spend their time and when. Because, strategically, you want to hit different states at the right time,” said Stephanie Soucek, the chair of the Republican Party in bellwether Door County. And Trump hitting the state twice in one week shows “that Wisconsin is one of the top states.”
Democrats are still on edge from 2016, when Trump became the first Republican to win the state since 1984 (he gloated about it Wednesday night). At the time, Hillary Clinton was partly blamed for losing the state since she hadn’t campaigned here. Biden managed to eke out a tiny victory in 2020, but with this year’s polls showing the state on a knife’s edge, Democratic state Assemblymember Lee Snodgrass compared the feeling among many Democrats to “post traumatic stress disorder.”
“I don’t think this is going to be a blowout. Obviously, I think it’s going to be within a couple of points, but I think Kamala is going to win,” said Kelda Roys, a Democratic state senator, adding that she also believed Sen. Tammy Baldwin would keep her Senate seat and Democrats could flip four seats in the state Senate.
But, Roys added, that’s “not to say that I don’t feel nervous and feel stress and anxiety, because of course I do. And I think if you don’t, you’re probably doing it wrong.”
Speaking in Green Bay, Trump said aides had told him it would be “very inappropriate” to say he wanted to “protect the women of our country.”
“I said, ‘Well, I’m going to do it whether the women like it or not, I’m going to protect them,’” Trump said, sparking immediate backlash. “Defining line of the campaign?” Harris campaign aide James Singer wrote on X.
And in Madison, between celebrity performances, Wisconsin’s precarity took center stage at Harris’ youth voter turnout-focused rally.
“This election is gonna be close. Damn close,” Wisconsin Gov. Tony Evers said at the rally. “We have the momentum, but this is Wisconsin, after all, and we know a thing or two about close elections.”
It was all part of the candidates’ closing messages in their battle over 10 potentially crucial Electoral College votes.
The dueling rallies came as the presidential campaigns ratchet up attention on Wisconsin in the closing days of an extremely close race. Harris holds the slimmest of leads over Trump in the critical swing state, according to polling averages Wednesday. And in a sign of how important Wisconsin is, they’re both expected back here on Friday.
Wisconsin was the closest of the three Blue Wall states in 2020, with now-President Joe Biden carrying it by not even 21,000 votes, compared with a roughly 80,000-vote difference in Pennsylvania and a 154,000-vote margin in Michigan.
But Wisconsin is also the smallest prize of the bunch — offering the winner just 10 electoral votes compared with Michigan’s 15 and Pennsylvania’s holy grail of 19. And so, as Trump and Harris barrel down the home stretch of the 2024 contest, neither campaign has treated Wisconsin as the top prize — spending more of their time and money elsewhere.
Not that Wisconsinites have noticed.
“Nobody here feels ignored,” said Mark Graul, a GOP strategist based in the state.
“There’s so much money in these campaigns now, so many outside groups in these campaigns now, and the playing field is so narrow now,” Graul said. “We don’t need any more visits, we don’t need any more ads, we’re ready to count votes.”
Since launching her campaign in mid-July, Harris and her running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, have collectively spent more time in Wisconsin than their Republican rivals. Before Wednesday’s concert extravaganza in Madison, Harris had visited the state seven times, including holding an event last week with Republican former Rep. Liz Cheney of Wyoming as part of a series aimed at winning over independents and disaffected Republican voters. Walz had also visited the state seven times as of Wednesday.
Trump visited Wisconsin five times after the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, packing four events into a nine-day span across the end of September and early October. But before his sixth visit on Wednesday, the Republican nominee had not been seen in the state since Oct. 6, instead relying on a bevy of surrogates and state party officials to campaign on his behalf. His running mate, Ohio Sen. JD Vance, has also prioritized other states over Wisconsin, though he campaigned in Wausau and Racine on Monday.
A POLITICO analysis of ad spending by both campaigns from July 22 through Oct. 30 also shows them doling out more dollars elsewhere. Wisconsin accounts for the fifth-largest share of both campaigns’ ad spending across the seven core swing states. Harris and Trump have each spent the most in Pennsylvania, followed by Michigan, Georgia and Arizona for the Democrat, and North Carolina, Georgia and Michigan for the Republican.
But the campaigns are barnstorming Wisconsin this week: Trump will make his return on Friday to Fiserv Forum, where he accepted his third presidential nomination back in July, after rallying with football legend Brett Favre in Green Bay on Wednesday. Harris, meanwhile, hosted a star-studded “Badgers for Harris-Walz” rally in deep-blue Madison on Wednesday and is scheduled to return to the state on Friday.
And both campaigns have sent their highest-profile surrogates to the state. Former President Barack Obama joined Walz for a rally in Madison last week to promote early voting. Former President Bill Clinton is scheduled to campaign in Oshkosh and Milwaukee on Thursday to encourage the same. And Harris’ campaign is sending a group of former Republican elected officials and former Trump administration officials across the state on Friday. Vance has also made repeated visits to the Badger state, and Trump surrogates like Reps. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) and Troy Nehls (R-Texas) have flown in for a bus tour and town hall.
“I’m sure they’re trying to, on both sides, gauge where they need to spend their time and when. Because, strategically, you want to hit different states at the right time,” said Stephanie Soucek, the chair of the Republican Party in bellwether Door County. And Trump hitting the state twice in one week shows “that Wisconsin is one of the top states.”
Democrats are still on edge from 2016, when Trump became the first Republican to win the state since 1984 (he gloated about it Wednesday night). At the time, Hillary Clinton was partly blamed for losing the state since she hadn’t campaigned here. Biden managed to eke out a tiny victory in 2020, but with this year’s polls showing the state on a knife’s edge, Democratic state Assemblymember Lee Snodgrass compared the feeling among many Democrats to “post traumatic stress disorder.”
“I don’t think this is going to be a blowout. Obviously, I think it’s going to be within a couple of points, but I think Kamala is going to win,” said Kelda Roys, a Democratic state senator, adding that she also believed Sen. Tammy Baldwin would keep her Senate seat and Democrats could flip four seats in the state Senate.
But, Roys added, that’s “not to say that I don’t feel nervous and feel stress and anxiety, because of course I do. And I think if you don’t, you’re probably doing it wrong.”
Speaking in Green Bay, Trump said aides had told him it would be “very inappropriate” to say he wanted to “protect the women of our country.”
“I said, ‘Well, I’m going to do it whether the women like it or not, I’m going to protect them,’” Trump said, sparking immediate backlash. “Defining line of the campaign?” Harris campaign aide James Singer wrote on X.
And in Madison, between celebrity performances, Wisconsin’s precarity took center stage at Harris’ youth voter turnout-focused rally.
“This election is gonna be close. Damn close,” Wisconsin Gov. Tony Evers said at the rally. “We have the momentum, but this is Wisconsin, after all, and we know a thing or two about close elections.”
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