OMAHA, Nebraska — Rep. Don Bacon is facing a Donald Trump paradox: He needs to run away from the former president to win his battleground race, but he also needs Trump to work harder to compete here.

Like other centrist Republicans in competitive seats, Bacon is looking to peel off Harris voters. But he faces a unique problem: Harris is spending millions to win the one electoral vote from Bacon’s district. Trump is effectively ceding it, barely spending at all. Nebraska now has the eighth-highest level of presidential election spending among states, and more than 95 percent of it is from Democrats, according to AdImpact.

“That’s probably the No. 1 hurdle for us. … That’s like a 10- or 20-mile-an-hour headwind,” Bacon said in an interview with POLITICO in Omaha.

“I will support the will of the voters,” Bacon replied. He also talked to the group about how Trump “campaigned against me two years ago” and pointed out he got a primary challenge from the Trump wing of the party this cycle.

Bacon beat state Sen. Tony Vargas by fewer than 3 points in 2022 and also had a tight margin of victory in 2020, but Trump is polling even further behind Harris this year than his roughly 6-point defeat four years ago. Bacon needs the presidential race to stay close enough, hoping he only needs to climb out of a tiny electoral ditch rather than a six-foot-deep hole. A New York Times/Siena College poll released Monday showed Harris leading by 12 points in the district.

Bacon might have the hardest time with the Trump dynamic of any of his House Republican colleagues, due to the electoral vote factor, but he’s not the only GOP lawmaker struggling to address Trump in Biden-won territory. It’s impacting other potentially majority-making seats, like those of Reps. David Valadao (R-Calif.), one of two House Republicans left who voted to impeach Trump in 2021, and Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.).

GOP leaders seem to understand Bacon is in a particularly tough bind. Speaker Mike Johnson and Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.) were in Nebraska for Bacon earlier this month, and Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-Minn.) swung through last week — figures who, unlike Trump, can help gin up Republicans without alienating independents.

Johnson, speaking after an event with Bacon in Omaha, said that the House GOP’s “road to the majority” runs through the state’s 2nd District. But Johnson sidestepped a POLITICO question about whether he’d pushed Trump or the campaign to spend more money here, saying Trump “understands how important Don Bacon is to us,” and that he has spoken to him directly about how critical the race is.

“We’re providing Don with all the support we can. … I’ve certainly gone all in for him and all of our colleagues because he’s that important to us,” Johnson added.

It’s hardly the first time Bacon has found himself having to navigate tricky dynamics in his own party.

Earlier this cycle, he faced a primary challenge from Dan Frei, who said he would try to join the ultra-conservative Freedom Caucus if he made it to the House. The Republican Party in Sarpy County, which makes up a small portion of Bacon’s district, also voted to censure him in April, accusing him of “resorting to publicly denigrating rhetoric against fellow Republicans who challenge or disagree.”

Bacon acknowledged that there might still be some GOP voters who backed Frei in the primary who won’t ultimately turn out for him — he said they “drank the Kool-Aid,” pointing to conservatives online saying he would be worse than Vargas. But he believes generally that voters in his district like a “right-leaning Republican that can govern and get things done.”

“They don’t like assholes. They don’t like name-calling,” Bacon added.

State and local Republicans are also trying to focus on unifying going into November; the state party endorsed the state’s congressional slate in August for the general election. And while Trump’s campaign might not be spending much in the district, his campaign and volunteers are involved in an on-the-ground effort to turn out voters that Republicans here believe will ultimately help Bacon.

“The Trump campaign has hundreds of volunteers right now, they’re canvassing. They’ve hit thousands of doors. They’re not really spending their money in [the second congressional district] on the TV ads, they are trying to take it door to door,” said Sarpy County Republican Party Chair Michael Tiedeman, predicting that “the presidential race is going to help Congressman Bacon.”

But only Harris is campaigning for the electoral vote in a serious way. According to AdImpact, Harris and Democrats have spent $4.4 million on presidential advertising in the Omaha market since Labor Day, including future reservations. Trump and Republicans have spent only $162,000.

Democrats are feeling increasingly confident about their ability to finally flip Bacon’s seat after years of near-misses, including Bacon’s narrow win in 2022. A stream of recent polling in the Vargas-Bacon rematch shows the Democrat with a slight lead — though national and state Republicans believe Bacon can still eke out a win. A National Republican Congressional Committee memo released Monday name-checked Bacon for knowing “how to win in tough presidential environments.”

Democrats believe they also have a serious advantage that they didn’t have in 2022: blue dot enthusiasm. The district has been known as Nebraska’s “blue dot” in past elections, but a couple started producing yard signs with the symbol over the summer and they’ve quickly multiplied around the Omaha area this fall, emblematic of heightened Democratic excitement with Harris at the top of the ticket. Blue Dot Nebraska co-founder Jason Brown, one half of the couple behind the signs, said they are “cautiously optimistic” that enthusiasm will translate down-ballot for Vargas.

In the House race, Vargas criticizes Bacon on various national issues, including abortion, immigration and border security, he has another frequent argument that’s more personal: Bacon has shifted too far toward Trump and the MAGA wing of the party to fit this swing district. Bacon said before Haley dropped out that he would support Trump if he was the party’s nominee, and Trump endorsed Bacon last month. (Bacon, in a post on X, said he was “thankful” for his support — a comment Democrats immediately highlighted.)

“We hear all the time: They gave him an opportunity in 2022, but now they’re not, because they see his true colors. If Donald Trump wins this election, they know that Don Bacon isn’t going to stand up to him at all,” Vargas said, in an interview in midtown Omaha.

Bacon, however, has emphasized his spot in the more centrist corner of the House GOP as he tries to sway Washington-weary voters to back him, regardless of how they are going to vote at the top of the ticket. He frequently mentions his support of the bipartisan infrastructure bill — he was one of 13 House Republicans to vote for it — and funding for other projects he’s secured for the district. He’s also leaning on his military background as an asset amid multiple international conflicts.

Speaking to the group of Black community leaders in Omaha, Bacon talked about his work on anti-lynching legislation, noting he introduced a Senate bill identical to one led by Kamala Harris and others.