Welcome to October Surprise, the Daily Beast’s daily countdown to the biggest election of our lifetime. It’s only12 daysuntil Election Day and here’s what’s happening in the race to the White House between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris.

THE DOWNLOAD

From the beginning,Kamala Harris has called herself the underdog in her race againstDonald Trump. Democrats have been on a roller coaster, from their collective dread that helped force Joe Biden out of the race to the high of the Harris honeymoon and back down again to pre-election jitters as Trump has regained momentum. Still, Democrats see plenty of signs Harris could come out on top. Here are seven.

The reasons range from skewed polling—mostly on the Republican side—and the Harris operation’s record-shattering fundraising machine, which has blown Trump’s fundraising out of the water. Another reason is that four in 10 women under 30 say abortion is their most important issue, and the Harris campaign has paid for a major ad blitz on the issue. Then there’s Trump’s weakening base, early voting, and each candidate’s likability factor. Read the full story here.

Former President Trump says he will “fire” Special Counsel Jack Smith “within two seconds” if voters send him back to the White House.

Conservative podcast host Hugh Hewitt asked Trump on Thursday what he’d do given the choice between pardoning himself during his second term or firing Smith.

“Oh, it’s so easy. It’s so easy… I would fire him within two seconds,” Trump said.

POLLS OBSESSED

Trump leads Harris by 2 percentage points, 47 percent to 45 percent, in a new Wall Street Journal poll. In the Journal’s August survey, Harris was up by 2 points. Both leads are within the poll’s margin of error, so either candidate could truly be ahead.

Trump also leads Harris nationally in the latest CNBC poll, 48 percent to 46 percent, which is also within this poll’s margin of error of 3.1 percent. But in another poll, conducted by TIPP, Harris is up 50 percent to 47 percent.

ON THE MOVE

Harris has her star-studded rock-and-roll rally with Bruce Springsteen in Atlanta, joined by former President Barack Obama, director Spike Lee, actor Samuel L. Jackson and filmmaker Tyler Perry. And Tim Walz is going the way of folk rock with Sweet Baby James Taylor at a rally in Wilmington, North Carolina. Trump will be joined by one-time Democratic presidential candidate Tulsi Gabbard and conservative activist Charlie Kirk at a rally in Las Vegas. JD Vance was making the rounds in Michigan.

THROWBACK THURSDAY

Eight years ago today, Trump’s links to Jeffrey Epstein were back in the news thanks to a Daily Beast story by the author Michael Gross. It detailed “scandalous specifics about Trump’s presence and behavior at events where illegal drugs and young women were passed around and used.” Two men who spoke to Gross told how Trump “used to host parties in suites at the Plaza Hotel when he owned it, where young women and girls were introduced to older, richer men. But both men also put Donald Trump in the room with cocaine, very young women and underage girls, and rich, old men there to—pardon my language, but if the Times can say p---y on its front page, I can say this—f— them.” Read more.

BEAST OF THE DAY

Donald Trump is being mocked as a “fool” and a “sucker” in a new ad by his Republican haters based on the Daily Beast’s revelations of his campaign chief’s massive payday.

The Lincoln Project’s ad highlights how his campaign chief, Chris LaCivita, is making a fortune off the GOP presidential candidate. The attack ad is based on a Daily Beast exclusive story written by Michael Isikoff about LaCivita’s windfall: $22 million (and counting) in just two years.

“Donald, you are such a sucker,” the ad opens, a woman’s voice narrating. “And you don’t even know it.” Read the full story here.

SHAMELESS PLUG

These are not normal times so be sure to download the New Abnormal to hear co-hosts Danielle Moodie and Andy Levy ask the Washington Post’s Geoff Fowler about what’s going on on Instagram–where there are claims of political censorship.