Topline

The race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump remains a seeming dead heat just over two weeks before the election, according to at least six surveys over the past week that show Harris with a narrow advantage and three others that found Trump has a slim lead—though the key swing states are virtually tied.

Key Facts

Who Is Favored To Win The Election, Harris Or Trump?

Trump is favored to win 51 times out of 100, compared to 49 for Harris, according to FiveThirtyEight’s election forecast. Political analyst and statistician Nate Silver also gives Trump a narrow 52.8/46.9 edge, but wrote recently he’s “never seen an election in which the forecast spent more time in the vicinity of 50/50.”

Big Number

0.2. That’s how many points Harris leads Trump by in RealClearPolitics’ latest polling average. Meanwhile, FiveThirtyEight’s average shows Harris with a 1.8-point lead, and Nate Silver has Harris up 1.6 points in his Silver Bulletin forecast.

How Does Harris Perform Against Trump In Swing States?

Harris leads in Michigan, Nevada and Wisconsin, while Trump is ahead in North Carolina, Georgia and Arizona, and the two are tied in Pennsylvania, according to the Silver Bulletin. All of the states have margins in the single-digits, however, meaning the race is still effectively a dead heat.

Surprising Fact

A poll from NBC News released Sept. 29 found that while Harris still leads Trump among Latinos, the lead is shrinking. The NBC News/Telemundo/CNBC poll—which was conducted Sept. 16-23 among 1,000 registered Latino voters—showed 54% supported Harris compared with 40% who supported Trump and 6% who said they were unsure who they would vote for. The support for Harris is higher than it was when Biden was running against Trump, NBC said, but is still significantly lower than past leads Democratic candidates have had, including a 36-point lead in 2020 polling and 50-point lead in 2016 polling. The poll had a margin of error of +/-3.1 percentage points.

How Did The Debate Impact Polls?

Pre-debate surveys found Harris’ polling surge appeared to plateau, including a NPR/PBS/Marist survey of registered voters taken Sept. 3-5 that showed Harris leading Trump 49% to 48%, down from a three-point lead in August. Most post-debate surveys show the majority of respondents believe Harris won the debate, but not enough to significantly impact the horserace between the two. A New York Times/Siena poll of likely voters released Sept. 19 found the majority of voters in every demographic gave positive reviews of Harris’ Sept. 10 debate performance, with 67% overall saying she did well, compared to 40% who said the same about Trump. Harris was up 52%-46% among likely voters and 51%-47% among registered voters in an ABC News/Ipsos poll taken days following the debate on Sept. 11-13, essentially unchanged from her six-point leads with likely voters in late August and early August ABC/Ipsos surveys—even though 63% of Americans said Harris won the debate.

Key Background

Biden dropped out of the race on July 21 after resisting calls from within his own party for weeks to end his reelection bid in the wake of his disastrous performance in the June 27 debate. He immediately endorsed Harris and she announced plans to seek the nomination. The party quickly coalesced around her, with 99% of Democratic delegates voting to officially nominate her in a virtual roll call prior to the Democratic National Convention in August. Harris tapped Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate, weeks after Trump announced Ohio Sen. JD Vance as his pick for vice president. ABC News hosted the first debate between Harris and Trump on Sept. 10 from Philadelphia. Harris’ rise in polls is coupled with an increase in Democratic enthusiasm for the election, which has nearly doubled since Harris’ entrance into the race, from 46% in June to 85% now, while enthusiasm among Republicans has stayed stagnant at 71%, according to a Monmouth University poll released Aug. 14.

Further Reading

New HarrisX/Forbes Poll: Trump Leads Harris By 2 Points—But 12% Are Still Deciding (Forbes)

Election 2024 Swing State Polls: Latest Surveys Show Trump Up In Nevada, Georgia (Update) (Forbes)

Nevada 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Trump Up By 1 Point In Latest Survey—As Harris Struggles With Latinos (Forbes)

Georgia 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Trump Leads In Latest Survey—But Undecided Voters Could Tip Results (Forbes)

Arizona 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Trump Up 3 Points In Latest Survey (Forbes)

Michigan 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Harris Leads Narrowly In Latest Survey (Forbes)

Pennsylvania 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Harris Leads Crucial Swing State In Latest Survey (Forbes)

Wisconsin 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Harris Leads By 3 Points In Latest Survey (Forbes)