Topline

Former President Donald Trump is ahead by two points in a head-to-head matchup with Vice President Kamala Harris in a new HarrisX/Forbes poll of likely voters—the latest survey to show the race is virtually unpredictable less than two weeks before Election Day.

Key Facts

Get Forbes Breaking News Text Alerts: We’re launching text message alerts so you'll always know the biggest stories shaping the day’s headlines. Text “Alerts” to (201) 335-0739 or sign up here.

Crucial Quote

“On one side VP Harris is leading the expected early vote by double digits, and winning ballots cast to date by a ratio of almost two to one. On the other side former President Trump has closed the polling gap nationally to a tie to a slight advantage, showing a swing in polling and momentum to his advantage,” Nesho said.

Big Number

4. That’s how many points Harris led Trump by in a previous Forbes/HarrisX poll taken Sept. 11-13 with learners factored in.

Tangent

New predictions from prominent politicos out Wednesday suggest the race is virtually tied: Veteran Democratic strategist James Carville wrote he is “certain Kamala Harris will win” in a New York Times op-ed, while data analyst Nate Silver wrote, also in The Times, his “gut says Donald Trump,” adding the disclaimer that the race is so close that readers shouldn’t “put any value whatsoever on anyone’s gut.”

Key Background

Harris still leads nationally in most surveys, including five since Friday, that show her with anywhere from a one- to a four-point lead, though Trump regained a lead over Harris in a Fox News poll released Oct. 16 that shows him with a two-point advantage. The seven battleground states most likely to decide the election are even closer: Trump is ahead in North Carolina, Georgia and Arizona, and Harris leads in Michigan, Wisconsin and Nevada, according to Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin. The two are tied in Pennsylvania and no candidate leads by more than two points in any of the swing states.

Further Reading

Trump Vs. Harris 2024 Polls: Harris Leads In 4 Latest Surveys (Forbes)

Election 2024 Swing State Polls: Latest Surveys Show Trump Up In Nevada, Georgia (Update) (Forbes)

Nevada 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Trump Up By 1 Point In Latest Survey—As Harris Struggles With Latinos (Forbes)

Georgia 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Trump Leads In Latest Survey—But Undecided Voters Could Tip Results (Forbes)

Arizona 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Trump Up 3 Points In Latest Survey (Forbes)

Michigan 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Harris Leads Narrowly In Latest Survey (Forbes)

Pennsylvania 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Harris Leads Crucial Swing State In Latest Survey (Forbes)

Wisconsin 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Harris Leads By 3 Points In Latest Survey (Forbes)