Storm tracker: Tropical Storm Nadine brings rain as another system forms. Will it become Oscar?
Storm tracker: Tropical Storm Nadine brings rain as another system forms. Will it become Oscar?
    Posted on 10/19/2024
The National Hurricane Center was continuing to track Tropical Storm Nadine, which formed early Saturday morning, and was monitoring another system in the Caribbean, which could develop into a tropical storm or depression Saturday.

Tropical Storm Nadine was located about 60 miles east of Belize City and 105 miles southeast of Chetumal, Mexico, on the Yucatan Peninsula on Saturday at 8 a.m. ET, the hurricane center said. The storm, which was producing maximum sustained winds of 45 mph, was moving west at 9 mph, the center said.

Tropical Storm Warnings had been issued for Belize City and areas from Belize to Cancun, Mexico, including Cozumel. With widespread rainfall amounts of 4-8 inches expected, Nadine will spur localized flash flooding across southern Mexico, northern Guatemala and northern Belize.

Tropical storm conditions are expected along parts of the coasts of Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico through Saturday afternoon, the hurricane center said. Isolated areas of amounts exceeding 12 inches are also possible through late Tuesday.

Nadine poses no threat to the U.S. As the storm moves inland, it is expected to weaken and likely dissipate over southeastern Mexico by early Sunday, the center said.

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Tropical Storm Nadine tracker

This forecast track shows the most likely path of the center of the storm. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is likely to travel outside the cone up to 33% of the time.

Tropical Storm Nadine spaghetti models

Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest-performing models to help make its forecasts.

NHC monitoring system 94L in the Caribbean

The National Hurricane Center is also tracking another system in the Atlantic, called AL 94 or Invest 94L, which is producing showers and thunderstorms less than 100 miles east of the Turks and Caicos Islands. The system is moving westward at 10 to 15 mph and is expected to pass north of Hispaniola today, and on Sunday move near the Turks and Caicos, the southeastern Bahamas, and extreme eastern Cuba on Sunday.Forecasters say the system is "becoming better organized" and is expected to develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm on Saturday and tropical storm warnings will likely be issued for those islands, as well as southeastern Bahama and eastern Cuba. Its formation likelihood over the next seven days is estimated at 90%, the center said Saturday.

The system is expected to strengthen until it passes Hispaniola and Cuba later this weekend and then likely dissipate or "continue on as a poorly organized tropical rainstorm in the western Caribbean," AccuWeather senior meteorologist Alex Sosnowski said in a forecast on Saturday.

Invest 94L tracker

Invest 94L spaghetti models

Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest-performing models to help make its forecasts.

When does the 2024 hurricane season end?

About six weeks remain in the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, which typically runs from June 1 through Nov. 30. So far this season, there have been 14 named storms. The next storm to form will be named Oscar.

After a relatively quiet five weeks or so, the 2024 season – especially with the arrival of Helene and Milton – became an above-average hurricane season, according to Colorado State University meteorologist Phil Klotzbach. He noted that typically, the 14th storm named in the Atlantic Ocean forms on Nov. 19, in a post on X, the social network formerly known as Twitter.

Through Oct. 28 there is a 50% chance for tropical development, Colorado State University meteorologists said in its recent two-week forecast. "There are hints of potential additional development in the western Caribbean late in the forecast period, but these signals are fairly weak," CSU forecasters said.

Atlantic storm tracker

Contributing: John Gallas, Cheryl McCloud and Doyle Rice of the USA TODAY Network.

Follow Mike Snider on X and Threads: @mikesnider & mikegsnider.
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