A week after AccuWeather predicted a mild, low-snow winter for the New Jersey region, government forecasters from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration issued similar predictions on winter temperatures, but mixed predictions on our state’s snow potential.

In its winter outlook for the 2024-2025 season released Thursday morning, NOAA said a slowly developing La Niña weather pattern will likely play a role in how the upcoming season shapes up.

The agency’s Climate Prediction Center is predicting warmer than average temperatures in the Garden State — along with New York and most of Pennsylvania — but offered no firm predictions on how wet or snowy the upcoming winter season will be in these areas of the country.

The winter outlook says there are “equal chances of below-average, near-average or above-average seasonal total precipitation” for the New Jersey region.

La Niña is a natural climate pattern that develops when sea surface temperatures near the equator in the eastern Pacific stay cooler than average for extended periods. This type of pattern can change the track and strength of snowstorms in any part of the United States by influencing the jet stream.

During the past 30 years, many winters in which La Niña conditions were thriving resulted in milder temperatures and average or below-average snowfall in the eastern U.S. However, during some La Niña winters, New Jersey got hit with heavy snow.

So, La Niña conditions don‘t always have the same outcome.

In addition, the La Niña pattern that’s predicted for this winter is favored to be on the weaker side, so its impacts might not be as definitive as they usually are, said Jon Gottschalck, chief of the Operational Prediction Branch of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.

The NOAA winter outlook covers the three meteorological winter months of December, January and February and does not include specific snowfall projections.

New Jersey typically averages about 34 inches of snow a year in the northern part of the state, approximately 28 inches in Central Jersey and about 18 inches in South Jersey.

NOAA precipitation outlook

Here’s a look at what NOAA is predicting this winter for different regions of the nation:

Wetter-than-average conditions are most likely in the Great Lakes states, and above-average precipitation is also favored in northern and western Alaska, the Pacific Northwest and across the northern tier of the U.S. These probabilities are strongest in portions of Ohio, Indiana and Kentucky.

The greatest likelihood for drier-than-average conditions are in states bordering the Gulf of Mexico, as well as in Texas and southern New Mexico.

Much of California, the central Plains states and the I-95 corridor from Boston to Washington, D.C., have equal chances of below-average, near-average or above-average seasonal total precipitation.

AccuWeather winter forecast

Last week, AccuWeather’s forecast for the winter season of 2024-2025 was released, predicting warmer than average temperatures and less snow than normal for the Garden State, as well as in many major cities and metro regions in the eastern U.S., including New York, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh and Boston.

Forecasters from AccuWeather said warm water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico and northern Pacific, a weak La Niña weather pattern, and a tight polar vortex are three major factors contributing to this winter’s weather outlook.

Current weather radar

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