“As summer has turned to fall, any signs of momentum for Kamala Harris have stopped,” stated Jeff Horwitt, a Democratic pollster who conducted the survey alongside Republican pollster Bill McInturff. The results show a dramatic shift: in September, Harris had a 5-point lead over Trump, but that advantage has evaporated, leaving the two candidates tied at 48% each among registered voters.

NBC Poll: Shift in voter sentiment

The poll indicates a shift in voter sentiment, with concerns mounting that Harris represents continuity with President Joe Biden rather than change. This perception, coupled with a more favourable view of Trump’s previous term among voters, has helped Trump close the gap.

McInturff notes that Harris faces "headwinds" as voters see her as asking for another term from the incumbent party, while Trump benefits from a positive reassessment of his past presidency.

Additionally, Harris' approval rating has taken a hit, dropping to 43% positive and 49% negative, a net rating of -6. This is a significant shift from last month’s poll, where her positive rating was 48% against a 45% negative, giving her a +3 net rating at that time. The decline in favorability comes primarily from independents and younger voters—key demographics Harris needs to retain support from.

The poll also highlights a deep gender gap between the candidates. While Harris maintains a 14-point lead among women, Trump holds a 16-point advantage among men. Both candidates face challenges in securing support from independent voters, with many still undecided or unwilling to back either candidate.

As the race tightens, the next few weeks will be crucial for Harris to reverse her declining popularity and solidify support, especially among key voter groups. Meanwhile, Trump seeks to leverage his regained momentum to tip the balance in his favor.