Topline

Vice President Kamala Harris has erased former President Donald Trump’s lead over President Joe Biden in Michigan since her entrance into the race, according to polls that show razor-thin races in the three “blue wall” states that could solidify a win for either candidate in November.

Key Facts

Why Do Union Endorsements Matter In Michigan?

Michigan households with a union member have been more likely to vote for a Democratic presidential candidate than union households nationwide in the last three presidential elections, Reuters reported, citing the polling firm Edison Research. The United Auto Workers’ endorsement of Harris was considered a boon to her candidacy in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. However, the International Brotherhood of Teamsters and International Association of Fire Fighters’ decisions not to endorse anyone, after backing Biden in 2020 and historically supporting Democrats, were widely seen as blows to Harris.

Will Arab-American Voters Break With Kamala Harris In Michigan?

Michigan has a sizeable Arab-American population, many of whom have been angered by the Biden-Harris administration’s continued support for Israel in its war in Gaza. Recent polling for the Arab American Institute by John Zogby Strategies appears to show the Biden administration’s handling of the crisis has severely dented his support among the demographic, with those who identify as Republicans and those who identify as Democrats split at 38%, compared to 40% who identified as Democrats and 32% who identified as Republicans in 2020. The pro-Palestinian group “Uncommitted”—which encouraged primary voters not to back Biden in Michigan and other key states—has not endorsed Harris, though it said this week it views Trump as worse than Harris.

Big Number

2.6 points. That’s Harris’ lead in national polls, according to FiveThirtyEight’s polling average. She leads by two points in Real Clear Politics’ polling average.

Tangent

Democrats control all three branches of state government in Michigan for the first time since the 1980s.

Key Background

Trump had been leading Biden in Michigan in polls by a slim margin prior to Biden dropping out of the race. The state’s popular Democratic governor, Gretchen Whitmer, co-chair of both Biden’s and Harris’ campaigns, is seen as a key asset in helping Harris repeat Whitmer’s own success in the state, where she has won two elections by double-digits, increasing her margins in the 2022 election while campaigning on abortion rights in the wake of Roe v. Wade’s reversal. Abortion, while still a high-ranking priority for voters, has lost some of its weight in electoral politics since 2022, however, as other issues, including ongoing inflation and the Israel-Hamas war, are also driving voting decisions.

Is Trump Or Harris Ahead In The Seven Swing States?

Harris leads Trump in Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Nevada, while Trump is up in Georgia, North Carolina and Arizona, according to FiveThirtyEight’s swing state polling averages.

Contra

A win for Harris across the “blue wall” is contingent on her winning Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District and its single electoral vote. The district is an outlier in the state as it typically votes for a Democrat for president. Nebraska is just one of two states that uses a piecemeal approach to allocating electoral votes instead of a winner-takes-all approach. A final-hour GOP-backed effort to change the rule recently failed to gain the traction needed to succeed in the state legislature.

Further Reading

Trump Vs. Harris 2024 Polls: Harris Holds Onto Lead In 4 New Polls (Forbes)