Kamala Harris gains slight lead over Donald Trump in Michigan, poll shows
Posted on 10/09/2024
Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris appears to have gained momentum in a race for the White House that remains neck and neck in Michigan with a month until Election Day, according to a new poll from The Detroit News and WDIV-TV (Channel 4).
The survey of 600 likely Michigan voters, conducted Oct. 1-4, found Harris to have a 2.6 percentage point lead over Republican former President Donald Trump. Among the participants, 46.8% said they would vote for Harris, 44.2% said they would pick Trump, 8.3% said they would support another candidate and 0.7% were undecided.
Harris' advantage was within the margin of error of plus or minus 4 points. However, the numbers were significant because they represented the largest lead that Democratic President Joe Biden, who dropped his reelection bid on July 21, or Harris has had over Trump in four surveys commissioned this year by The News and WDIV-TV.
The contest is close, but there have been shifts among key blocs of voters in the state, said Richard Czuba, founder of the Glengariff Group, a Lansing-based firm that conducted the poll.
“What we look for is where are voters moving in a specific direction," Czuba said. "And for all of the signs we’re seeing in this poll, the movement is in Harris’ direction.”
Over the last month, Harris, a former U.S. senator from California, has gained ground against Trump, a businessman who resides in Florida, among independents, according to the poll. Plus, Trump's advantage on whom voters believe will handle the economy better has dropped.
The trends are playing out after absentee voting began in Michigan on Sept. 26.
In the most recent similar poll from The News and WDIV-TV, conducted in late August, Trump was beating Harris by 1.2 percentage points, 44.7%-43.5%. In late July, Harris had a narrow lead of 0.3 points, 41.6%-41.3%. And in January, Trump was ahead of Biden by 8.2 points, 46.8%-38.6%.
For the new survey, about 86% of participants were contacted through their cellphone, and 14% were reached through a landline phone. In the sample, 42% identified themselves as Democratic voters, 41% said they were Republican voters, and 17% said they were independents or didn't provide an answer.
Trump is the only Republican presidential nominee to carry Michigan over the last three decades, winning the state in 2016 by 10,704 votes, or about 0.2 percentage points, against Democrat Hillary Clinton. But four years later, Biden defeated Trump in Michigan by 154,188 votes or 3 points.
Economic movement
Michigan voters continue to identify jobs and the economy as the pivotal topic in the November election.
In the new poll, about 18% gave that answer when asked what was the single most important issue that will influence how they'll vote this fall. Abortion and women's rights was the second most frequent reply at 15%, and borders and immigration was third at nearly 14%.
In the late August poll of Michigan voters, about 52% said Trump would handle the economy better than Harris, while 39% said Harris would be superior on the topic, meaning the Republican had a 13 percentage point lead on the subject.
But in the new poll, Trump's advantage on the economy decreased. Now, 52% said Trump would handle the economy better, but 45% picked Harris, putting Trump's new lead at 7 points and potentially signaling some voters who had been unsure about the vice president had coalesced around her.
Among the Michigan voters preferring Trump's handling of the economy was Bryan Little, a 21-year-old auto technician from Cass City. The costs of fuel and insurance have gone up in recent years, as Democrats held the White House, Little said.
"I would rather have a businessman than a politician," Little said of his support for Trump.
John Schenavar, a 40-year-old member of the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers from Woodhaven, also labeled the economy the key issue in the election. But Schenavar said he's backing Harris this fall because he doesn't believe Trump is the right person for the job.
Trump typically seems to worry about what's best for himself, Schenavar said.
"I just feel like he’s morally not the person to trust," Schenavar added.
About 39% of voters surveyed said morals and integrity are important to them in picking a presidential candidates, while 47% said they are focused on issues and 12% said both character and issues are a deciding factor.
When asked which candidate more closely represents their values, 49% of voters surveyed said Harris, while 45% chose Trump, according to the poll.
During his campaign stops in Michigan this fall, Trump has vowed to reclaim the country's manufacturing power, criticized governmental efforts to promote electric vehicles and called for placing tariffs on products being imported into the United States.
On Friday, during events in Redford Township and Flint, Harris attempted to counter Trump's arguments, saying he would put hundreds of jobs tied to electric vehicle manufacturing at risk. She has also argued that Trump's tariff plan would increase costs for consumers.
Her economic plans include combating price gouging, providing $25,000 in down-payment assistance for first-time home buyers and enacting a $50,000 tax deduction for start-up small businesses.
Kennedy impact
With a month to go, Harris is also performing better among likely Michigan voters who identify themselves as independents.
In the Aug. 26-29 survey, about 43% of self-described independent participants picked Trump, while 23% selected Harris as their candidate of choice and 16% backed Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the Natural Law Party nominee who suspended his campaign for the presidency and endorsed Trump on Aug. 23.
Now, in the new poll, about 40% of the self-described independents are supporting Harris, 39% are with Trump and 5% are sticking with Kennedy, who campaigned in Michigan on behalf of Trump in September.
Kennedy unsuccessfully attempted to get his name removed from Michigan ballots, but he was blocked by Democratic Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson and the courts.
“My name is going to be on the ballot," Kennedy told a crowd in Bath Township on Sept. 26. "But I am asking people not to check my name, but to check Donald Trump’s name because that’s the only way I am going to get to Washington."
Overall, Kennedy still got the support of 4.7% of the participants in the new poll, a percentage that's higher than the difference between Harris and Trump. Kennedy got the same percentage of support in the late August survey, the week after he quit the race.
Kate Masters, a 46-year-old from Jackson, was among the participants who said they planned to vote for Kennedy.
"I just don’t really like either candidate," Masters said of Harris and Trump.
Masters said she believes she voted for Trump four years ago and thought he did an "OK" job as president. But, she said, he causes a lot of division in the country. As for Harris, Masters said she doesn't think the vice president has done enough yet to be promoted to the nation's top office.
Among the other third-party options, 1.2% of likely Michigan voters said they planned to support Green Party nominee Jill Stein, 1.2% preferred independent Cornel West, 0.8% backed Libertarian Party nominee Chase Oliver and 0.4% said they would pick some other candidate.
cmauger@detroitnews.com
The survey of 600 likely Michigan voters, conducted Oct. 1-4, found Harris to have a 2.6 percentage point lead over Republican former President Donald Trump. Among the participants, 46.8% said they would vote for Harris, 44.2% said they would pick Trump, 8.3% said they would support another candidate and 0.7% were undecided.
Harris' advantage was within the margin of error of plus or minus 4 points. However, the numbers were significant because they represented the largest lead that Democratic President Joe Biden, who dropped his reelection bid on July 21, or Harris has had over Trump in four surveys commissioned this year by The News and WDIV-TV.
The contest is close, but there have been shifts among key blocs of voters in the state, said Richard Czuba, founder of the Glengariff Group, a Lansing-based firm that conducted the poll.
“What we look for is where are voters moving in a specific direction," Czuba said. "And for all of the signs we’re seeing in this poll, the movement is in Harris’ direction.”
Over the last month, Harris, a former U.S. senator from California, has gained ground against Trump, a businessman who resides in Florida, among independents, according to the poll. Plus, Trump's advantage on whom voters believe will handle the economy better has dropped.
The trends are playing out after absentee voting began in Michigan on Sept. 26.
In the most recent similar poll from The News and WDIV-TV, conducted in late August, Trump was beating Harris by 1.2 percentage points, 44.7%-43.5%. In late July, Harris had a narrow lead of 0.3 points, 41.6%-41.3%. And in January, Trump was ahead of Biden by 8.2 points, 46.8%-38.6%.
For the new survey, about 86% of participants were contacted through their cellphone, and 14% were reached through a landline phone. In the sample, 42% identified themselves as Democratic voters, 41% said they were Republican voters, and 17% said they were independents or didn't provide an answer.
Trump is the only Republican presidential nominee to carry Michigan over the last three decades, winning the state in 2016 by 10,704 votes, or about 0.2 percentage points, against Democrat Hillary Clinton. But four years later, Biden defeated Trump in Michigan by 154,188 votes or 3 points.
Economic movement
Michigan voters continue to identify jobs and the economy as the pivotal topic in the November election.
In the new poll, about 18% gave that answer when asked what was the single most important issue that will influence how they'll vote this fall. Abortion and women's rights was the second most frequent reply at 15%, and borders and immigration was third at nearly 14%.
In the late August poll of Michigan voters, about 52% said Trump would handle the economy better than Harris, while 39% said Harris would be superior on the topic, meaning the Republican had a 13 percentage point lead on the subject.
But in the new poll, Trump's advantage on the economy decreased. Now, 52% said Trump would handle the economy better, but 45% picked Harris, putting Trump's new lead at 7 points and potentially signaling some voters who had been unsure about the vice president had coalesced around her.
Among the Michigan voters preferring Trump's handling of the economy was Bryan Little, a 21-year-old auto technician from Cass City. The costs of fuel and insurance have gone up in recent years, as Democrats held the White House, Little said.
"I would rather have a businessman than a politician," Little said of his support for Trump.
John Schenavar, a 40-year-old member of the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers from Woodhaven, also labeled the economy the key issue in the election. But Schenavar said he's backing Harris this fall because he doesn't believe Trump is the right person for the job.
Trump typically seems to worry about what's best for himself, Schenavar said.
"I just feel like he’s morally not the person to trust," Schenavar added.
About 39% of voters surveyed said morals and integrity are important to them in picking a presidential candidates, while 47% said they are focused on issues and 12% said both character and issues are a deciding factor.
When asked which candidate more closely represents their values, 49% of voters surveyed said Harris, while 45% chose Trump, according to the poll.
During his campaign stops in Michigan this fall, Trump has vowed to reclaim the country's manufacturing power, criticized governmental efforts to promote electric vehicles and called for placing tariffs on products being imported into the United States.
On Friday, during events in Redford Township and Flint, Harris attempted to counter Trump's arguments, saying he would put hundreds of jobs tied to electric vehicle manufacturing at risk. She has also argued that Trump's tariff plan would increase costs for consumers.
Her economic plans include combating price gouging, providing $25,000 in down-payment assistance for first-time home buyers and enacting a $50,000 tax deduction for start-up small businesses.
Kennedy impact
With a month to go, Harris is also performing better among likely Michigan voters who identify themselves as independents.
In the Aug. 26-29 survey, about 43% of self-described independent participants picked Trump, while 23% selected Harris as their candidate of choice and 16% backed Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the Natural Law Party nominee who suspended his campaign for the presidency and endorsed Trump on Aug. 23.
Now, in the new poll, about 40% of the self-described independents are supporting Harris, 39% are with Trump and 5% are sticking with Kennedy, who campaigned in Michigan on behalf of Trump in September.
Kennedy unsuccessfully attempted to get his name removed from Michigan ballots, but he was blocked by Democratic Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson and the courts.
“My name is going to be on the ballot," Kennedy told a crowd in Bath Township on Sept. 26. "But I am asking people not to check my name, but to check Donald Trump’s name because that’s the only way I am going to get to Washington."
Overall, Kennedy still got the support of 4.7% of the participants in the new poll, a percentage that's higher than the difference between Harris and Trump. Kennedy got the same percentage of support in the late August survey, the week after he quit the race.
Kate Masters, a 46-year-old from Jackson, was among the participants who said they planned to vote for Kennedy.
"I just don’t really like either candidate," Masters said of Harris and Trump.
Masters said she believes she voted for Trump four years ago and thought he did an "OK" job as president. But, she said, he causes a lot of division in the country. As for Harris, Masters said she doesn't think the vice president has done enough yet to be promoted to the nation's top office.
Among the other third-party options, 1.2% of likely Michigan voters said they planned to support Green Party nominee Jill Stein, 1.2% preferred independent Cornel West, 0.8% backed Libertarian Party nominee Chase Oliver and 0.4% said they would pick some other candidate.
cmauger@detroitnews.com
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