Tropical Storm Milton could become a hurricane as early as Sunday as it churns toward a devastating impact somewhere along Florida’s already battered Gulf Coast.

The Tampa Bay region, still reeling from massive coastal flooding from Helene —its worst hurricane in a century — remained in the cross hairs of Milton, a small but fast-strengthening storm expected to become a major Category 3 hurricane before it bulldozes the Gulf Coast.

At 8 a.m. Sunday, the center of the National Hurricane Center’s forecast track went literally up the mouth of Tampa Bay, which is ringed with communities already swamped by record storm surge from the passage of Helene just a week ago. Milton, on its current track, could potentially bring much worse. The tropical storm, packing winds of 60 mph Sunday morning, was expected to quickly become a hurricane over the hot waters of the Gulf of Mexico.

The path could shift over the next few days before Milton makes landfall but the hurricane will hit somewhere along the Gulf Coast by late Tuesday night or early Wednesday.

The NHC dispatched Hurricane Hunter planes into Milton and could begin posting hurricane and storm surge watches as early as Sunday evening. Coastal evacuations also are likely to begin as early as Sunday.

Gov. Ron DeSantis declared a state of emergency in 35 counties, including Miami-Dade and Broward, and directed state agencies to help expedite the cleanup in counties that still have piles of debris from Helene on their roads.

Widespread flooding likely

For South Florida, the impact will depend on Milton’s path. Miami-Dade, Broward and Monroe counties remain out of the NHC’s “cone of concern” early Sunday but that could change. At the very least, heavy rains could drench much of the region, starting Wednesday.

Much of the region was already under flash flood warnings with eight inches or more of rain possible in some areas from a separate system that is expected to cause street — and possibly home — flooding. If Milton’s path shifts south, tropical storm-force winds could sweep the area as well.

READ MORE: Before a hurricane brings more rain, South Florida will see flooding in next few days

Just before landfall, forecasters predict Milton could be a Category 3 hurricane with 120 mph sustained winds moving at a pretty fast clip, 15 mph. That pace could help it hold onto its strength as it crosses the peninsula. The forecast calls for Milton to still be a category 1 hurricane by the time it emerges on Florida’s east coast, likely south of Daytona Beach.

That size and speed make storm surge a real threat to the West Coast — again.

On its latest track, Milton could bring more than 10 feet of storm surge to the inside of Tampa Bay and to Bradenton and Longboat Key to the south, according to a visualization from Louisiana State University’s storm surge model.

The hurricane center has not released official projections for how much storm surge the region might see, but it’s clear the numbers will be high near and to the south of landfall.

Because of Milton’s compact size, it’s tricky to predict exactly how strong it could get. The path ahead is lined with some of the warmest waters in the region, which did not cool off very much after Helene churned through. That could lead to rapid intensification if other conditions also line up.

However, the hurricane center is also watching a patch of wind shear and dry air that could buffet Milton around the same time as its passing through that hot water. Those factors could keep Milton from strengthening any further than the Category 3 the hurricane center is currently forecasting.

This story was originally published October 6, 2024, 7:43 AM.