The National Hurricane Center initiated advisories on Tropical Depression 14 on Saturday morning, which could make landfall in Florida next week as a Category 2 hurricane named Milton.

As of 11 a.m., the system was located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. It’s forecast to strengthen into a hurricane while moving northeastward toward Florida’s west coast.

There could be a “risk of life-threatening impacts” including storm surge, wind and flash flooding along parts of Florida’s Gulf Coast, the Hurricane Center said in its 11 a.m. advisory. Heavy rainfall is expected ahead of the storm on Sunday and Monday, which could be “at or near major hurricane strength” before landfall.

The National Hurricane Center warned those in the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, the Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys and the northwestern Bahamas to monitor its progress in an update earlier Saturday morning.

“Regardless of development, locally heavy rains could occur over portions of Mexico during the next day or two, and over much of Florida late this weekend through the middle of next week,” forecasters said.

Predictions of the track will likely continue to shift in the coming days. The current forecast cone suggests the eye of the storm could make landfall somewhere along Florida’s west coast, including Tampa Bay. If the storm tracks northward, it could mean stronger intensification as the system has more time to sit over warm Gulf waters, forecasters said. But the storm’s effects could be felt beyond its landfall, reaching areas already devastated by Hurricane Helene last week.

The National Weather Service in Tampa said the rain associated with the system could pose a risk for inland flooding because the area is already saturated. Rain trends are expected to increase between Sunday and Wednesday due to another wave of moisture expected to move over the area.

“We’re expecting impacts all along the coast, and that would be anything from storm surge to strong winds and flooding rain,” said National Weather Service meteorologist Christianne Pearce. “Rainfall ahead of the storm would definitely have more of an impact because that means any extra rainfall from the storm would lead to even more flooding,”

Areas around Tampa Bay are forecast to see between three to six inches of rain over the next five days, but that could change depending on how fast the storm develops.

The National Hurricane Center also is keeping track of two hurricanes in the Atlantic, although neither appears to pose a major threat to Florida.

Hurricane season runs until Nov. 30.

The Orlando Sentinel (TNS) contributed to this report.

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