A tropical rainstorm is brewing in the Gulf of Mexico and is set to deluge Florida with up to a foot of rain. The long-duration storm will last from Saturday night through Thursday, and could lead to flooding, particularly in the Miami and Fort Lauderdale areas.

There’s also a chance it evolves into something more significant and becomes a tropical storm or hurricane. It’s a tricky setup that weather models are struggling to get a handle on, but meteorologists are wary.

A broad 4 to 8 inches of rain, with localized totals of 12 inches, appears likely for much of the southern and central Florida Peninsula. Much less will fall in northern zones, potentially sparing the areas hit by Helene from any worse impacts.

The tropical rainstorm comes amid a sudden uptick in tropical activity in the Atlantic. Major Hurricane Kirk teetered on the brink of Category 5 status to start the day Friday, and Leslie — a tropical storm midway between the Lesser Antilles and Africa — could become a hurricane soon. Both of those are expected to remain over open waters and pose no direct threats to land.

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The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season has been a peculiar one. Experts warned of a “hyperactive” season, and it got off to a wild start with Beryl in early July — the earliest Category 5 on record in the Atlantic. But then a weeks-long period of silence ensued from mid-August into September with a dearth of activity that hadn’t been seen since 1968.

What are the chances of a named tropical storm or hurricane forming?

There’s a 40 percent likelihood that a named storm forms in the Gulf of Mexico in the next seven days, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Currently, a broad and diffuse area of spin is parked over the Gulf of Mexico. Some models, like the European model, simulate a tightening of that spin. If it consolidates enough, a tropical storm could develop. Milton is the next name up on the list.

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If a storm did form, it would probably do so in the southwest Gulf of Mexico, perhaps around the Bay of Campeche. It would slowly drift east or east-northeast. Harsh, disruptive winds above would prevent it from becoming overly organized, anyway — so that means it’s unlikely that anything more than a low-end hurricane would form.

What areas are most likely to be affected and when?

What’s more likely is that the area of disturbed weather in the Gulf remains disorganized and broad. That would just leave a blob of deep tropical moisture parked over the Gulf.

That would contribute to heavy downpours that would move repeatedly over the same areas.

That’s why areas south of Tampa, Orlando and Daytona will probably see 4 to 8 inches of rain between Saturday night and Thursday, with localized totals exceeding a foot.

It’s impossible to determine where the jackpot totals occur, but heavy rains could present an issue in urban areas.