National Hurricane Center tracking 5 systems in Atlantic. Florida needs to watch one closely
Posted on 09/30/2024
(This story was updated to add new information.)
The National Hurricane Center is busy, tracking five systems in the Atlantic basin.
The biggest concern to Florida and the U.S. is a disturbance in the Caribbean Sea, which could become a tropical depression later late this week or over the weekend as it follows a path similar to major Hurricane Helene, according to the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center.
Forecasters are advising residents along the Gulf Coast to closely monitor the system.
➤ Track all active storms
➤ Weather alerts via text: Sign up to get updates about current storms and weather events by location
On the bright side, former Hurricane Isaac and former Tropical Storm Joyce have already weakened and are predicted to stay well away from Florida and the U.S.
Three other systems out there, though — including the one in the Caribbean — and Tropical Depression 12 in the eastern Atlantic are both expected to strengthen in the coming days. The third system is located just off the coast of Africa.
Tropical Depression 12 is expected to become "a large and powerful hurricane later this week," according to the Hurricane Center. Current models show it curving north into the middle of the Atlantic, well away from the U.S.
Is another hurricane heading toward Florida?
Not at this time but a tropical depression or storm may form later this week as a developing system moves from the Caribbean Sea into the Gulf of Mexico.
AccuWeather Senior Director of Forecasting Operations Dan DePodwin said an area of high pressure is forecast to be centered over the eastern United States during the second half of next week, which may push any brewing tropical storm farther west when compared to Helene's path.
"At this early stage, however, it is too early to rule out any possibilities regarding the future track of a potential tropical storm," DePodwin said.
Regardless, residents from Mexico to the Gulf Coast of the United States are urged to remain vigilant to what's happening in the Caribbean.
Racing the Caribbean disturbance for the next name of the 2024 hurricane season is a tropical wave south of Cabo Verde Islands, west of Africa.
The next names of the season are Kirk, Leslie and Milton.
Here's the latest update from the National Hurricane Center as of 8 a.m. Monday, Sept. 30:
Tropical Storm Isaac: What you should know
Location: 515 miles west-northwest of the Azores
Maximum sustained winds: 65 mph
Movement: east-northeast at 15 mph
➤ Spaghetti models for Tropical Storm Isaac
Isaac is slowly weakening and is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone later today. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles. Isaac poses no threat to the U.S.
Tropical Depression Joyce: What you should know
Location: 910 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands
Maximum sustained winds: 35 mph
Movement: west at 1 mph
➤ Spaghetti models for Tropical Depression Joyce
Joyce is expected to weaken over the next 48 hours, and is likely to become a post-tropical remnant low later today and dissipate by Wednesday.
Tropical Depression 12: What you should know
Location: 690 miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands
Maximum sustained winds: 35 mph
Movement: west at 8 mph
➤ Spaghetti models for Tropical Depression 12
At 5 a.m. EDT, the center of Tropical Depression 12 was located near latitude 14.0 North, longitude 34.1 West.
The depression is moving toward the west near 8 mph, and a general westward to west-northwestward motion is expected to continue through Tuesday.
A gradual turn to the northwest is forecast by Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph, with higher gusts.
Steady strengthening is forecast, and the depression is likely to become a hurricane by Tuesday night or Wednesday.
What else is out there and how likely are they to strengthen?
Western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico: A large and disorganized area of low pressure located over the western and southwestern Caribbean Sea is producing some shower and thunderstorm activity.
Environmental conditions could become conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form in a few days while the system is over the southern Gulf of Mexico or northwestern Caribbean Sea.
While residents in the northwestern Caribbean Sea and along the U.S. Gulf Coast should continue to monitor the progress of this system, the timetable for potential development has shifted later toward late week or this weekend.
Formation chance through 48 hours: low, near 0 percent.
Formation chance through 7 days: medium, 40 percent.
Eastern tropical Atlantic: Showers and thunderstorms have increased in association with a tropical wave located a few hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands.
Upper-level winds are forecast to become more conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form in a few days while it moves slowly westward over the eastern tropical Atlantic.
Formation chance through 48 hours: low, 30 percent.
Formation chance through 7 days: high, 80 percent.
What do the colored areas on the NOAA map mean?
The hatched areas on a tropical outlook map indicate "areas where a tropical cyclone — which could be a tropical depression, tropical storm or hurricane — could develop," said National Hurricane Center Deputy Director Jamie Rhome.
The colors make it visibly clear how likely a system could develop with yellow being low, orange medium and red high.
The National Hurricane Center generally doesn't issue tropical advisories until there is a named storm, but there is an exception.
"If a system is near land and there is potential for development, the National Hurricane Center won't wait before it issues advisories, even if the system hasn't become an actual storm. This gives residents time to prepare," Rhome said.
Who is likely to be impacted?
Tropical Storm Isaac, Tropical Depression Joyce and Tropical Depression 12 aren't expected to affect Florida or the U.S.
➤ Excessive rainfall forecast
All residents along the Gulf Coast, including Florida, should watch the disturbance showing potential for development in the Caribbean. It's still too early to determine size, strength or direction but "a second potential threat to the Gulf Coast is unfortunately plausible in the upcoming week," according to Dr. Ryan Truchelut, chief meteorologist with WeatherTiger. Truchelut is a Florida meteorologist who works with the USA TODAY Network.
The other tropical wave out there is still to far from the U.S. to determine whether there will be any impact.s
Forecasters urge all residents to continue monitoring the tropics and to always be prepared. That advice is particularly important for what is expected to be a very active hurricane season.
There is not threat to land from any new storms in the tropics on Sunday.
Weather watches and warnings issued in Florida
Stay informed. Get weather alerts via text
When is hurricane season over?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.
When is the peak of hurricane season?
The peak of the season was Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.
National Hurricane Center map: What are forecasters watching now?
Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center include:
Interactive map: Hurricanes, tropical storms that have passed near your city
Excessive rainfall forecast
What's next?
We will continue to update our tropical weather coverage daily. Download your local site's app to ensure you're always connected to the news. And look for our special subscription offers here.
(This story was updated to add new information.)
The National Hurricane Center is busy, tracking five systems in the Atlantic basin.
The biggest concern to Florida and the U.S. is a disturbance in the Caribbean Sea, which could become a tropical depression later late this week or over the weekend as it follows a path similar to major Hurricane Helene, according to the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center.
Forecasters are advising residents along the Gulf Coast to closely monitor the system.
➤ Track all active storms
➤ Weather alerts via text: Sign up to get updates about current storms and weather events by location
On the bright side, former Hurricane Isaac and former Tropical Storm Joyce have already weakened and are predicted to stay well away from Florida and the U.S.
Three other systems out there, though — including the one in the Caribbean — and Tropical Depression 12 in the eastern Atlantic are both expected to strengthen in the coming days. The third system is located just off the coast of Africa.
Tropical Depression 12 is expected to become "a large and powerful hurricane later this week," according to the Hurricane Center. Current models show it curving north into the middle of the Atlantic, well away from the U.S.
Is another hurricane heading toward Florida?
Not at this time but a tropical depression or storm may form later this week as a developing system moves from the Caribbean Sea into the Gulf of Mexico.
AccuWeather Senior Director of Forecasting Operations Dan DePodwin said an area of high pressure is forecast to be centered over the eastern United States during the second half of next week, which may push any brewing tropical storm farther west when compared to Helene's path.
"At this early stage, however, it is too early to rule out any possibilities regarding the future track of a potential tropical storm," DePodwin said.
Regardless, residents from Mexico to the Gulf Coast of the United States are urged to remain vigilant to what's happening in the Caribbean.
Racing the Caribbean disturbance for the next name of the 2024 hurricane season is a tropical wave south of Cabo Verde Islands, west of Africa.
The next names of the season are Kirk, Leslie and Milton.
Here's the latest update from the National Hurricane Center as of 8 a.m. Monday, Sept. 30:
Tropical Storm Isaac: What you should know
Location: 515 miles west-northwest of the Azores
Maximum sustained winds: 65 mph
Movement: east-northeast at 15 mph
➤ Spaghetti models for Tropical Storm Isaac
Isaac is slowly weakening and is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone later today. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles. Isaac poses no threat to the U.S.
Tropical Depression Joyce: What you should know
Location: 910 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands
Maximum sustained winds: 35 mph
Movement: west at 1 mph
➤ Spaghetti models for Tropical Depression Joyce
Joyce is expected to weaken over the next 48 hours, and is likely to become a post-tropical remnant low later today and dissipate by Wednesday.
Tropical Depression 12: What you should know
Location: 690 miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands
Maximum sustained winds: 35 mph
Movement: west at 8 mph
➤ Spaghetti models for Tropical Depression 12
At 5 a.m. EDT, the center of Tropical Depression 12 was located near latitude 14.0 North, longitude 34.1 West.
The depression is moving toward the west near 8 mph, and a general westward to west-northwestward motion is expected to continue through Tuesday.
A gradual turn to the northwest is forecast by Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph, with higher gusts.
Steady strengthening is forecast, and the depression is likely to become a hurricane by Tuesday night or Wednesday.
What else is out there and how likely are they to strengthen?
Western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico: A large and disorganized area of low pressure located over the western and southwestern Caribbean Sea is producing some shower and thunderstorm activity.
Environmental conditions could become conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form in a few days while the system is over the southern Gulf of Mexico or northwestern Caribbean Sea.
While residents in the northwestern Caribbean Sea and along the U.S. Gulf Coast should continue to monitor the progress of this system, the timetable for potential development has shifted later toward late week or this weekend.
Formation chance through 48 hours: low, near 0 percent.
Formation chance through 7 days: medium, 40 percent.
Eastern tropical Atlantic: Showers and thunderstorms have increased in association with a tropical wave located a few hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands.
Upper-level winds are forecast to become more conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form in a few days while it moves slowly westward over the eastern tropical Atlantic.
Formation chance through 48 hours: low, 30 percent.
Formation chance through 7 days: high, 80 percent.
What do the colored areas on the NOAA map mean?
The hatched areas on a tropical outlook map indicate "areas where a tropical cyclone — which could be a tropical depression, tropical storm or hurricane — could develop," said National Hurricane Center Deputy Director Jamie Rhome.
The colors make it visibly clear how likely a system could develop with yellow being low, orange medium and red high.
The National Hurricane Center generally doesn't issue tropical advisories until there is a named storm, but there is an exception.
"If a system is near land and there is potential for development, the National Hurricane Center won't wait before it issues advisories, even if the system hasn't become an actual storm. This gives residents time to prepare," Rhome said.
Who is likely to be impacted?
Tropical Storm Isaac, Tropical Depression Joyce and Tropical Depression 12 aren't expected to affect Florida or the U.S.
➤ Excessive rainfall forecast
All residents along the Gulf Coast, including Florida, should watch the disturbance showing potential for development in the Caribbean. It's still too early to determine size, strength or direction but "a second potential threat to the Gulf Coast is unfortunately plausible in the upcoming week," according to Dr. Ryan Truchelut, chief meteorologist with WeatherTiger. Truchelut is a Florida meteorologist who works with the USA TODAY Network.
The other tropical wave out there is still to far from the U.S. to determine whether there will be any impact.s
Forecasters urge all residents to continue monitoring the tropics and to always be prepared. That advice is particularly important for what is expected to be a very active hurricane season.
There is not threat to land from any new storms in the tropics on Sunday.
Weather watches and warnings issued in Florida
Stay informed. Get weather alerts via text
When is hurricane season over?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.
When is the peak of hurricane season?
The peak of the season was Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.
National Hurricane Center map: What are forecasters watching now?
Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center include:
Interactive map: Hurricanes, tropical storms that have passed near your city
Excessive rainfall forecast
What's next?
We will continue to update our tropical weather coverage daily. Download your local site's app to ensure you're always connected to the news. And look for our special subscription offers here.
(This story was updated to add new information.)
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