National Hurricane Center keeps eyes on Caribbean, looks forward to what week will bring Florida
Posted on 09/29/2024
The storm that was Hurricane Helene is no more, and now the recovery and assessment begins from Florida's Gulf Coast and Big Bend to Western North Carolina to the Tennessee and Ohio Valley areas of the United States.
The National Hurricane Center gave its final advisory on the system that was Helene on Friday night as North Carolina compared its epic flooding to another catastrophic event, calling the storm its "own Hurricane Katrina." The situation is dire as places in and around Asheville have no power and as of Sunday afternoon, no water.
There are new systems brewing in the tropics as forecasters are tracking two named storms Sunday in the Atlantic and as of the 2 p.m. Tropical Weather Outlook three other potential tropical systems, one of which may become a tropical depression as early as tonight.
Where are Hurricane Isaac and Tropical Storm Joyce?
Hurricane Isaac is several hundred miles west-northwest of the Azores and and Tropical Storm Joyce is located over the central tropical Atlantic. Neither is expected to affect land.
Also in the Atlantic is a tropical wave with a medium chance to develop in the next week.
When is the next hurricane?
The Western Caribbean continued Sunday to be the place of concern, where an area of low pressure could form by the early part of next week and enter the Gulf of Mexico. It's too early to know whether this system will develop into a hurricane but the activity there is similar to what was seen in the early days of what would become Hurricane Helene.
➤ Spaghetti models for Hurricane Isaac
➤ Weather alerts via text: Sign up to get updates about current storms and weather events by location
AccuWeather Senior Director of Forecasting Operations Dan DePodwin reported that an area of high pressure is forecast to be centered over the eastern United States during the second half of next week, which may push any brewing tropical storm farther west when compared to Helene's path.
"At this early stage, however, it is too early to rule out any possibilities regarding the future track of a potential tropical storm," DePodwin said.
Regardless, all interests from Mexico to the Gulf Coast of the United States are urged to remain vigilant to the latest developments in the tropical Atlantic.
A system several hundred miles from the Cabo Verde Islands in the Atlantic may be the next named storm.
The next named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is Kirk.
Here's the latest update from the National Hurricane Center as of 2 p.m. Sunday, Sept. 29:
➤ Track all active storms
➤ Live updates: See the latest on impacts from Helene
Is there another hurricane out there? Here's what you should know about Hurricane Isaac
Location: 590 miles west-northwest of the Azores
Maximum sustained winds: 80 mph
Movement: northeast at 13 mph
At 5 a.m. EDT, the center of Hurricane Isaac was located near latitude 42.6 North, longitude 36.5 West.
Isaac is moving toward the northeast near 13 mph, and this general motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast to north on Tuesday.
Maximum sustained winds have decreased near 80 mph with higher gusts, and continued weakening is expected over the next few days. Isaac is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone by early Monday.
Tropical Storm Joyce: What you should know
Location: 1,000 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands
Maximum sustained winds: 45 mph
Movement: west northwest at 9 mph
At 5 a.m. EDT, the center of Tropical Storm Joyce was located near latitude 21.3 North, longitude 48.1 West.
Joyce is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph, and this general motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected through tonight. A turn toward the north and north-northeast is forecast on Monday and Tuesday.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast, and Joyce is expected to become a depression by early Monday and then a remnant low on Tuesday.
➤ Spaghetti models for Tropical Storm Joyce
Spaghetti models for Tropical Storm Joyce
What else is out there and how likely are they to strengthen?
Western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico: A broad area of low pressure located over the western Caribbean Sea is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development thereafter, and a tropical depression could form around the middle part of next week. This system is expected to move northwestward into the Gulf of Mexico during the latter portion of next week, and interests in the northwestern Caribbean Sea and along the U.S. Gulf Coast should monitor its progress.
Formation chance through 48 hours: low, near 0 percent.
Formation chance through 7 days: medium, 50 percent.
Eastern and Central tropical Atlantic: Recent satellite imagery indicates that the circulation associated with an area of low pressure located several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is becoming better defined.
Environmental conditions are favorable for continued development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form early this week, possibly as soon as tonight. The low will continue to move westward and then northwestward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
Formation chance through 48 hours: medium, 80 percent.
Formation chance through 7 days: high, 90 percent.
Eastern Atlantic: A tropical wave located near the coast of western Africa is currently producing limited shower activity. Some gradual development of this system is possible during the next several days while it moves slowly westward or west-northwestward over the eastern Atlantic Ocean.
Formation chance through 48 hours: low, near 0 percent.
Formation chance through 7 days: low, 30 percent.
What do the colored areas on the NOAA map mean?
The hatched areas on a tropical outlook map indicate "areas where a tropical cyclone — which could be a tropical depression, tropical storm or hurricane — could develop," said National Hurricane Center Deputy Director Jamie Rhome.
The colors make it visibly clear how likely a system could develop with yellow being low, orange medium and red high.
The National Hurricane Center generally doesn't issue tropical advisories until there is a named storm, but there is an exception.
"If a system is near land and there is potential for development, the National Hurricane Center won't wait before it issues advisories, even if the system hasn't become an actual storm. This gives residents time to prepare," Rhome said.
Who is likely to be impacted?
The damage has been done from widespread significant river flooding across the southern Appalachians from Tropical Storm Helene, some of which are record-breaking. The level of damage is being assessed as Helen is now gone.
➤ Excessive rainfall forecast
There is a possibility of long-duration power outages in portions of the southeast U.S. If you use a generator, be sure it is placed outside at least 20 feet away from doors, windows, and garages to avoid deadly carbon monoxide poisoning.
Forecasters urge all residents to continue monitoring the tropics and to always be prepared. That advice is particularly important for what is expected to be a very active hurricane season.
There is not threat to land from any new storms in the tropics on Sunday.
Weather watches and warnings issued in Florida
Stay informed. Get weather alerts via text
When is hurricane season over?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.
When is the peak of hurricane season?
The peak of the season was Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.
National Hurricane Center map: What are forecasters watching now?
Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center include:
Interactive map: Hurricanes, tropical storms that have passed near your city
Excessive rainfall forecast
What's next?
We will continue to update our tropical weather coverage daily. Download your local site's app to ensure you're always connected to the news. And look for our special subscription offers here.
(This story was updated to add new information.)
The National Hurricane Center gave its final advisory on the system that was Helene on Friday night as North Carolina compared its epic flooding to another catastrophic event, calling the storm its "own Hurricane Katrina." The situation is dire as places in and around Asheville have no power and as of Sunday afternoon, no water.
There are new systems brewing in the tropics as forecasters are tracking two named storms Sunday in the Atlantic and as of the 2 p.m. Tropical Weather Outlook three other potential tropical systems, one of which may become a tropical depression as early as tonight.
Where are Hurricane Isaac and Tropical Storm Joyce?
Hurricane Isaac is several hundred miles west-northwest of the Azores and and Tropical Storm Joyce is located over the central tropical Atlantic. Neither is expected to affect land.
Also in the Atlantic is a tropical wave with a medium chance to develop in the next week.
When is the next hurricane?
The Western Caribbean continued Sunday to be the place of concern, where an area of low pressure could form by the early part of next week and enter the Gulf of Mexico. It's too early to know whether this system will develop into a hurricane but the activity there is similar to what was seen in the early days of what would become Hurricane Helene.
➤ Spaghetti models for Hurricane Isaac
➤ Weather alerts via text: Sign up to get updates about current storms and weather events by location
AccuWeather Senior Director of Forecasting Operations Dan DePodwin reported that an area of high pressure is forecast to be centered over the eastern United States during the second half of next week, which may push any brewing tropical storm farther west when compared to Helene's path.
"At this early stage, however, it is too early to rule out any possibilities regarding the future track of a potential tropical storm," DePodwin said.
Regardless, all interests from Mexico to the Gulf Coast of the United States are urged to remain vigilant to the latest developments in the tropical Atlantic.
A system several hundred miles from the Cabo Verde Islands in the Atlantic may be the next named storm.
The next named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is Kirk.
Here's the latest update from the National Hurricane Center as of 2 p.m. Sunday, Sept. 29:
➤ Track all active storms
➤ Live updates: See the latest on impacts from Helene
Is there another hurricane out there? Here's what you should know about Hurricane Isaac
Location: 590 miles west-northwest of the Azores
Maximum sustained winds: 80 mph
Movement: northeast at 13 mph
At 5 a.m. EDT, the center of Hurricane Isaac was located near latitude 42.6 North, longitude 36.5 West.
Isaac is moving toward the northeast near 13 mph, and this general motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast to north on Tuesday.
Maximum sustained winds have decreased near 80 mph with higher gusts, and continued weakening is expected over the next few days. Isaac is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone by early Monday.
Tropical Storm Joyce: What you should know
Location: 1,000 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands
Maximum sustained winds: 45 mph
Movement: west northwest at 9 mph
At 5 a.m. EDT, the center of Tropical Storm Joyce was located near latitude 21.3 North, longitude 48.1 West.
Joyce is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph, and this general motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected through tonight. A turn toward the north and north-northeast is forecast on Monday and Tuesday.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast, and Joyce is expected to become a depression by early Monday and then a remnant low on Tuesday.
➤ Spaghetti models for Tropical Storm Joyce
Spaghetti models for Tropical Storm Joyce
What else is out there and how likely are they to strengthen?
Western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico: A broad area of low pressure located over the western Caribbean Sea is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development thereafter, and a tropical depression could form around the middle part of next week. This system is expected to move northwestward into the Gulf of Mexico during the latter portion of next week, and interests in the northwestern Caribbean Sea and along the U.S. Gulf Coast should monitor its progress.
Formation chance through 48 hours: low, near 0 percent.
Formation chance through 7 days: medium, 50 percent.
Eastern and Central tropical Atlantic: Recent satellite imagery indicates that the circulation associated with an area of low pressure located several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is becoming better defined.
Environmental conditions are favorable for continued development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form early this week, possibly as soon as tonight. The low will continue to move westward and then northwestward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
Formation chance through 48 hours: medium, 80 percent.
Formation chance through 7 days: high, 90 percent.
Eastern Atlantic: A tropical wave located near the coast of western Africa is currently producing limited shower activity. Some gradual development of this system is possible during the next several days while it moves slowly westward or west-northwestward over the eastern Atlantic Ocean.
Formation chance through 48 hours: low, near 0 percent.
Formation chance through 7 days: low, 30 percent.
What do the colored areas on the NOAA map mean?
The hatched areas on a tropical outlook map indicate "areas where a tropical cyclone — which could be a tropical depression, tropical storm or hurricane — could develop," said National Hurricane Center Deputy Director Jamie Rhome.
The colors make it visibly clear how likely a system could develop with yellow being low, orange medium and red high.
The National Hurricane Center generally doesn't issue tropical advisories until there is a named storm, but there is an exception.
"If a system is near land and there is potential for development, the National Hurricane Center won't wait before it issues advisories, even if the system hasn't become an actual storm. This gives residents time to prepare," Rhome said.
Who is likely to be impacted?
The damage has been done from widespread significant river flooding across the southern Appalachians from Tropical Storm Helene, some of which are record-breaking. The level of damage is being assessed as Helen is now gone.
➤ Excessive rainfall forecast
There is a possibility of long-duration power outages in portions of the southeast U.S. If you use a generator, be sure it is placed outside at least 20 feet away from doors, windows, and garages to avoid deadly carbon monoxide poisoning.
Forecasters urge all residents to continue monitoring the tropics and to always be prepared. That advice is particularly important for what is expected to be a very active hurricane season.
There is not threat to land from any new storms in the tropics on Sunday.
Weather watches and warnings issued in Florida
Stay informed. Get weather alerts via text
When is hurricane season over?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.
When is the peak of hurricane season?
The peak of the season was Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.
National Hurricane Center map: What are forecasters watching now?
Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center include:
Interactive map: Hurricanes, tropical storms that have passed near your city
Excessive rainfall forecast
What's next?
We will continue to update our tropical weather coverage daily. Download your local site's app to ensure you're always connected to the news. And look for our special subscription offers here.
(This story was updated to add new information.)
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