Tallahassee got about as close as meteorologically possible to getting absolutely hammered by Hurricane Helene, which had been forecast for days to make a direct hit on the Capital City.

Two weather factors nudged Helene just far enough east to spare Tallahassee from the brunt of its 140-mph winds, the highest in modern history for the Apalachee Bay.

One was an upper-level cutoff low that helped steer Helene ever so slightly away from Tallahassee, said Joe Worster, meteorologist with the National Weather Service. Another was a cold front coming through at surface levels.

“Kind of near the end, it was a little uncertain, that cold front, how fast it was going to progress east,” Worster said. “And it progressed east at a fast enough rate that it pushed (Helene) a little further east and spared Tallahassee in this case.”

Dr. Ryan Truchelut of Tallahassee-based WeatherTiger, said he was “truly shocked” at how close Helene got to the city.

“The fact that anyone’s power stayed on in Tallahassee is miraculous to me,” he said.

As equally shocking was that Taylor County would again be the catastrophic target of Tallahassee's good fortune.

In his rolling forecast for the Tallahassee Democrat and USA TODAY NETWORK - Florida, Truchelut wondered how Taylor County could "be hit three times by hurricanes (including two major hurricanes) in 13 months, after having exactly one other hurricane landfall on record in 170+ years."

Truchelet said Helene, which made landfall about 10 miles west-southwest of Perry, moved through western Taylor County, north through Madison County and then very close to Valdosta, Georgia.

He said Helene’s center of circulation was about 35 of 40 miles east of the Capitol at the storm's closest approach. With maximum winds extending out 20 or 25 miles from the center, the worst of Helene was perhaps only 10-15 miles from downtown.

“It was one county away, basically,” he said, referring to hard-hit Jefferson County.

The near-miss continues a somewhat charmed history with hurricanes for Florida's capital city, though it's been under dire threat multiple times in recent years.

Truchelut said that because Helene was moving so fast, the winds on the western half of the circulation, which lashed Tallahassee, were weaker.

Could Tallahassee have had a closer call?

“In practical terms," Truchelut said, "no."

Contact Jeff Burlew at jburlew@tallahassee.com or 850-599-2180.