Hurricane Helene is forecast to rapidly intensify over the record-warm Gulf of Mexico before slamming into the United States’ Gulf Coast later this week.

The storm has not formed yet but is expected to soon, so the National Hurricane Center has dubbed it Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine to warn of its imminent threat.

Hurricane and tropical storm watches are in effect for parts of Mexico and Cuba. Similar alerts will be issued for the US in the coming days, with a potential landfall in Florida expected perhaps as soon Thursday night.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is a disorganized mass of showers and thunderstorms churning in the far western Caribbean Sea. This stormy weather will drop potentially flooding rainfall over portions of Central America, Mexico, Cuba and Jamaica as it tries to organize into a tropical system.

While its exact track and strength could change, Helene will track north over the extremely warm waters into the Gulf of Mexico which could supercharge it on its collision course with the US Gulf Coast.

The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Helene to rapidly intensify over a record-warm Gulf of Mexico – a feat becoming more likely as the world warms due to fossil fuel pollution.

Strong, potentially damaging winds and storm surge are likely near where the system ultimately comes ashore. The system will also churn up seas in the Gulf and could produce rough surf and dangerous rip currents for much of the basin, especially later this week.

The National Hurricane Center is showing a landfall in Florida’s Big Bend region, but anyone from Florida’s Gulf Coast to eastern Louisiana should be on alert this week.

Confidence in the system’s exact track will increase after it forms, since forecast models struggle to accurately pinpoint where it could go without a center to lock onto.

Ensemble forecast models – groupings of many model runs initiated with slight differences to show a wide range of outcomes – are focusing on the eastern Gulf Coast as the area most likely for a landfall later this week. When ensemble tracks bunch closer together it means there’s more confidence in the track.

There’s a closer grouping with this storm along the eastern Gulf Coast, but given it hasn’t formed yet it’s not a guarantee.

Regardless of its exact track, heavy rainfall is possible for much of the Southeast starting around midweek. A level 2 of 4 risk of flooding rain is in place for much of Florida, Georgia, Alabama and parts of the Carolinas Thursday, according to the Weather Prediction Center.

The storm could become the fourth hurricane to make landfall in the US this year. The three other storms rapidly intensified before striking the US as hurricanes: Beryl, Debby and Francine.