Will a major hurricane hit Florida this week? It's possible. Here's what you should know
Posted on 09/23/2024
AccuWeather: '“Everyone along the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend region needs to be prepared for hurricane impacts'
(This story will be updated to add new information.)
A system in the Caribbean is showing signs of organization and forecasters are warning of trouble ahead for residents along the Gulf of Mexico, according to the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center.
A tropical depression or storm is likely to form over the next day or two as it moves into the Gulf, where additional strengthening is possible, the National Hurricane Center said.
➤ Spaghetti models for Invest 97L
➤ Weather alerts via text: Sign up to get updates about current storms and weather events by location
AccuWeather forecasters are predicting the system could become a Category 3 hurricane before making landfall, possibly on Florida's Panhandle. Because rapid intensification is a strong possibility, residents were advised to prepare for a Category 4 storm.
“Everyone along the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend region needs to be prepared for hurricane impacts,” said AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva, adding the system has the potential to become the strongest hurricane landfall in the U.S. so far this season.
“AccuWeather expert meteorologists expect this to be a highly impactful storm,” said AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jon Porter. “This could be the storm that the 2024 hurricane season is remembered for.”
The next named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is Helene.
Invest 97L: What you need to know
Showers and thunderstorms are gradually becoming better organized in association with a broad area of low pressure located over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.
Environmental conditions appear favorable for further development of this system.
A tropical depression or storm is likely to form within the next day or two as the system moves northward across the northwestern Caribbean Sea and into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, where additional development is expected.
➤ Track all active storms
Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce heavy rains over portions of Central America during the next several days.
Interests in the northwestern Caribbean, the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, and western Cuba should closely monitor the progress of this system, as watches or warnings will likely be required later this morning for portions of these areas.
Later this week, the system is forecast to move generally northward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico, and interests along the northern and northeastern Gulf Coast should also closely monitor the progress of this system.
Formation chance through 48 hours: high, 80 percent.
Formation chance through 7 days: high, 90 percent.
Will a hurricane hit Florida?
"People along the Florida Panhandle, Big Bend region and much of the eastern Gulf coast need to complete preparations for hurricane impacts by Wednesday night before hazardous conditions arrive on Thursday," AccuWeather said.
AccuWeather said there are two possible scenarios for the storm currently organizing, which all depend on where a dip in the jet stream moves the system and where the center forms as it moves into the Gulf of Mexico:
A track farther inland across the Southeast states.
A storm advancing eastward along the Atlantic Southeast coast.
"Residents along the entire Gulf Coast from New Orleans to Key West, Florida, including the Tampa Bay metropolitan areas, should closely monitor the progress of the potential storm," AccuWeather said.
"This developing tropical threat is currently forecast to impact similar areas that were hit hard by Hurricane Idalia in August 2023."
Rapid intensification could mean Category 3 hurricane, but prepare for a Category 4 storm
At 8:30 a.m., DaSilva said AccuWeather is predicting Invest 97L could make landfall as a Category 2 hurricane, but that forecast is likely to change later today to a Category 3 storm.
"We're very concerned about rapid intensification" due to extremely warm waters both in the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico, DaSilva said.
"There is limited time to prepare for this storm. Prepare for a possible Category 4 storm. It's following a similar track to Michael and we don't want people to be caught off guard. If you're told to evacuate out of coastal areas, do so. Most deaths are water related, from flooding and storm surge."
Hurricane categories. What they mean and damage they could cause
Category 1: Winds 74-95 mph. Very dangerous winds will produce some damage: Well-constructed frame homes could have damage to roof, shingles, vinyl siding and gutters. Large branches of trees will snap and shallowly rooted trees may be toppled. Extensive damage to power lines and poles likely will result in power outages that could last a few to several days.
Category 2: Winds 96-110 mph. Extremely dangerous winds will cause extensive damage: Well-constructed frame homes could sustain major roof and siding damage. Many shallowly rooted trees will be snapped or uprooted and block numerous roads. Near-total power loss is expected with outages that could last from several days to weeks.
Category 3: Winds 111-129 mph. Devastating damage will occur: Well-built framed homes may incur major damage or removal of roof decking and gable ends. Many trees will be snapped or uprooted, blocking numerous roads. Electricity and water will be unavailable for several days to weeks after the storm passes.
Category 4: Winds 130-156 mph. Catastrophic damage will occur: Well-built framed homes can sustain severe damage with loss of most of the roof structure and/or some exterior walls. Most trees will be snapped or uprooted and power poles downed. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.
Category 5: Winds 157 mph or higher. Catastrophic damage will occur: A high percentage of framed homes will be destroyed, with total roof failure and wall collapse. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last for weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.
What tropical impacts are possible in Florida from Invest 97L this week?
Wind. AccuWeather is predicting Invest 97L could become a Category 2 hurricane before landfall later this week, and has the potential of strengthening into a Category 3 storm with sustained winds of at least 111 mph. Powerful wind gusts of 100-120 miles per hour are expected where the storm makes landfall on Thursday. The AccuWeather Local StormMax is 140 mph.
Rain. AccuWeather meteorologists are forecasting a widespread 4-8 inches of rainfall across the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend Region through Saturday, with a zone of 8-12 inches of rain possible near the landfall zone. The AccuWeather Local StormMax is 24 inches of rainfall.
Rounds of rain will arrive as early as Tuesday late afternoon or early evening starting over the Keys and moving northward, according to the Florida Public Radio Emergency Network.
➤ Excessive rainfall forecast
Storm surge. “The Tampa Bay region is extremely vulnerable to storm surge. If this storm tracks any farther west, we could end up dealing with a serious storm surge and flooding problems in Tampa,” DaSilva said.
Tornadoes. "On Thursday, there is also the risk of spin-up tornadoes across much of the Florida peninsula and parts of the Panhandle, as well as southern Georgia and southeast Alabama."
Power outages. "A risk of widespread power outages is also a concern where this storm makes landfall, and across the Tallahassee region," AccuWeather said. "Regional and localized power outages are expected across the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend region, as well as across much of Georgia, Alabama, southern Tennessee and pockets of far western South Carolina and North Carolina."
All of Florida should prepare now for potential impacts from hurricane
“Now is the time to start preparing for a hurricane landfall along the Gulf Coast. Don’t wait for this storm to be officially named,” Porter said.
“This has the potential to rapidly intensify into a powerful hurricane. Don’t let your friends and family along the Gulf Coast be caught off guard. Give them a call or send them a text message and let them know to get ready for a hurricane.
"There is the potential that this storm could further strengthen into a major hurricane, which is a Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale with maximum sustained winds of 111-129 miles per hour.”
"“This could be the storm that the 2024 hurricane season is remembered for,” Porter said.
"Impacts will be felt well away from the center," DaSilva said. "It's a pretty large system and the eastern side of the cone can expect impacts." That includes all of Florida.
"A tiny shift to the east could bring even more impacts throughout Florida. Once a center forms, we'll have a better clue on where it's going as it moves into the Gulf, but from New Orleans to Tampa Bay, pay attention. Don't let your guard down."
Watches, warnings issued across Florida
It's too early for any watches or warnings associated with the developing system but experts advise residents to watch Invest 97L closely and make preparations now.
Spaghetti models for Invest 97L
Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.
➤ Spaghetti models for Invest 97L
Stay informed. Get weather alerts via text
Key messages from the National Hurricane Center: What you need to know about Invest 97L
Later this week, the system is forecast to move generally northward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
Residents along the northern and northeastern Gulf Coast should closely monitor the progress of this system.
A tropical depression or storm is likely to form over the next couple of days.
As the system moves into the Gulf of Mexico, additional development is possible.
Watch for Hurricane Center's new 'cone of concern'
The National Hurricane Center launched its new "cone of concern" for Hurricane Ernesto on Aug. 14.
Ernesto stayed well away from Florida and the U.S., so residents didn't see many differences between the original and new cone. One of the biggest differences between the two is that the new cone will show wind warnings issued for interior counties, not just those on the coast.
Both cones will be visible on the Hurricane Center's website. Find the new cone by going to the graphics page for the storm, then click on "New Experimental Cone," which will be highlighted in red.
Differences you'll see:
Watches and warnings for inland counties, not just coastal areas.
White transparent shading for the entire five-day forecast, instead of white stippling (dots) for the four- and five-day forecast.
Interactive map: What tropical storms, hurricanes have impacted your area in the past?
What do the watches and warnings from NHC mean?
What is storm surge? Graphics explain the deadly weather event
Hurricane warning: A hurricane warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
Hurricane watch: A hurricane watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
Tropical storm warning: A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
Tropical storm watch: An announcement that sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph are possible within the specified area within 48 hours in association with a tropical, subtropical, or post-tropical cyclone.
Storm surge warning: A storm surge warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.
(This story will be updated to add new information.)
A system in the Caribbean is showing signs of organization and forecasters are warning of trouble ahead for residents along the Gulf of Mexico, according to the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center.
A tropical depression or storm is likely to form over the next day or two as it moves into the Gulf, where additional strengthening is possible, the National Hurricane Center said.
➤ Spaghetti models for Invest 97L
➤ Weather alerts via text: Sign up to get updates about current storms and weather events by location
AccuWeather forecasters are predicting the system could become a Category 3 hurricane before making landfall, possibly on Florida's Panhandle. Because rapid intensification is a strong possibility, residents were advised to prepare for a Category 4 storm.
“Everyone along the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend region needs to be prepared for hurricane impacts,” said AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva, adding the system has the potential to become the strongest hurricane landfall in the U.S. so far this season.
“AccuWeather expert meteorologists expect this to be a highly impactful storm,” said AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jon Porter. “This could be the storm that the 2024 hurricane season is remembered for.”
The next named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is Helene.
Invest 97L: What you need to know
Showers and thunderstorms are gradually becoming better organized in association with a broad area of low pressure located over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.
Environmental conditions appear favorable for further development of this system.
A tropical depression or storm is likely to form within the next day or two as the system moves northward across the northwestern Caribbean Sea and into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, where additional development is expected.
➤ Track all active storms
Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce heavy rains over portions of Central America during the next several days.
Interests in the northwestern Caribbean, the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, and western Cuba should closely monitor the progress of this system, as watches or warnings will likely be required later this morning for portions of these areas.
Later this week, the system is forecast to move generally northward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico, and interests along the northern and northeastern Gulf Coast should also closely monitor the progress of this system.
Formation chance through 48 hours: high, 80 percent.
Formation chance through 7 days: high, 90 percent.
Will a hurricane hit Florida?
"People along the Florida Panhandle, Big Bend region and much of the eastern Gulf coast need to complete preparations for hurricane impacts by Wednesday night before hazardous conditions arrive on Thursday," AccuWeather said.
AccuWeather said there are two possible scenarios for the storm currently organizing, which all depend on where a dip in the jet stream moves the system and where the center forms as it moves into the Gulf of Mexico:
A track farther inland across the Southeast states.
A storm advancing eastward along the Atlantic Southeast coast.
"Residents along the entire Gulf Coast from New Orleans to Key West, Florida, including the Tampa Bay metropolitan areas, should closely monitor the progress of the potential storm," AccuWeather said.
"This developing tropical threat is currently forecast to impact similar areas that were hit hard by Hurricane Idalia in August 2023."
Rapid intensification could mean Category 3 hurricane, but prepare for a Category 4 storm
At 8:30 a.m., DaSilva said AccuWeather is predicting Invest 97L could make landfall as a Category 2 hurricane, but that forecast is likely to change later today to a Category 3 storm.
"We're very concerned about rapid intensification" due to extremely warm waters both in the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico, DaSilva said.
"There is limited time to prepare for this storm. Prepare for a possible Category 4 storm. It's following a similar track to Michael and we don't want people to be caught off guard. If you're told to evacuate out of coastal areas, do so. Most deaths are water related, from flooding and storm surge."
Hurricane categories. What they mean and damage they could cause
Category 1: Winds 74-95 mph. Very dangerous winds will produce some damage: Well-constructed frame homes could have damage to roof, shingles, vinyl siding and gutters. Large branches of trees will snap and shallowly rooted trees may be toppled. Extensive damage to power lines and poles likely will result in power outages that could last a few to several days.
Category 2: Winds 96-110 mph. Extremely dangerous winds will cause extensive damage: Well-constructed frame homes could sustain major roof and siding damage. Many shallowly rooted trees will be snapped or uprooted and block numerous roads. Near-total power loss is expected with outages that could last from several days to weeks.
Category 3: Winds 111-129 mph. Devastating damage will occur: Well-built framed homes may incur major damage or removal of roof decking and gable ends. Many trees will be snapped or uprooted, blocking numerous roads. Electricity and water will be unavailable for several days to weeks after the storm passes.
Category 4: Winds 130-156 mph. Catastrophic damage will occur: Well-built framed homes can sustain severe damage with loss of most of the roof structure and/or some exterior walls. Most trees will be snapped or uprooted and power poles downed. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.
Category 5: Winds 157 mph or higher. Catastrophic damage will occur: A high percentage of framed homes will be destroyed, with total roof failure and wall collapse. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last for weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.
What tropical impacts are possible in Florida from Invest 97L this week?
Wind. AccuWeather is predicting Invest 97L could become a Category 2 hurricane before landfall later this week, and has the potential of strengthening into a Category 3 storm with sustained winds of at least 111 mph. Powerful wind gusts of 100-120 miles per hour are expected where the storm makes landfall on Thursday. The AccuWeather Local StormMax is 140 mph.
Rain. AccuWeather meteorologists are forecasting a widespread 4-8 inches of rainfall across the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend Region through Saturday, with a zone of 8-12 inches of rain possible near the landfall zone. The AccuWeather Local StormMax is 24 inches of rainfall.
Rounds of rain will arrive as early as Tuesday late afternoon or early evening starting over the Keys and moving northward, according to the Florida Public Radio Emergency Network.
➤ Excessive rainfall forecast
Storm surge. “The Tampa Bay region is extremely vulnerable to storm surge. If this storm tracks any farther west, we could end up dealing with a serious storm surge and flooding problems in Tampa,” DaSilva said.
Tornadoes. "On Thursday, there is also the risk of spin-up tornadoes across much of the Florida peninsula and parts of the Panhandle, as well as southern Georgia and southeast Alabama."
Power outages. "A risk of widespread power outages is also a concern where this storm makes landfall, and across the Tallahassee region," AccuWeather said. "Regional and localized power outages are expected across the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend region, as well as across much of Georgia, Alabama, southern Tennessee and pockets of far western South Carolina and North Carolina."
All of Florida should prepare now for potential impacts from hurricane
“Now is the time to start preparing for a hurricane landfall along the Gulf Coast. Don’t wait for this storm to be officially named,” Porter said.
“This has the potential to rapidly intensify into a powerful hurricane. Don’t let your friends and family along the Gulf Coast be caught off guard. Give them a call or send them a text message and let them know to get ready for a hurricane.
"There is the potential that this storm could further strengthen into a major hurricane, which is a Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale with maximum sustained winds of 111-129 miles per hour.”
"“This could be the storm that the 2024 hurricane season is remembered for,” Porter said.
"Impacts will be felt well away from the center," DaSilva said. "It's a pretty large system and the eastern side of the cone can expect impacts." That includes all of Florida.
"A tiny shift to the east could bring even more impacts throughout Florida. Once a center forms, we'll have a better clue on where it's going as it moves into the Gulf, but from New Orleans to Tampa Bay, pay attention. Don't let your guard down."
Watches, warnings issued across Florida
It's too early for any watches or warnings associated with the developing system but experts advise residents to watch Invest 97L closely and make preparations now.
Spaghetti models for Invest 97L
Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.
➤ Spaghetti models for Invest 97L
Stay informed. Get weather alerts via text
Key messages from the National Hurricane Center: What you need to know about Invest 97L
Later this week, the system is forecast to move generally northward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
Residents along the northern and northeastern Gulf Coast should closely monitor the progress of this system.
A tropical depression or storm is likely to form over the next couple of days.
As the system moves into the Gulf of Mexico, additional development is possible.
Watch for Hurricane Center's new 'cone of concern'
The National Hurricane Center launched its new "cone of concern" for Hurricane Ernesto on Aug. 14.
Ernesto stayed well away from Florida and the U.S., so residents didn't see many differences between the original and new cone. One of the biggest differences between the two is that the new cone will show wind warnings issued for interior counties, not just those on the coast.
Both cones will be visible on the Hurricane Center's website. Find the new cone by going to the graphics page for the storm, then click on "New Experimental Cone," which will be highlighted in red.
Differences you'll see:
Watches and warnings for inland counties, not just coastal areas.
White transparent shading for the entire five-day forecast, instead of white stippling (dots) for the four- and five-day forecast.
Interactive map: What tropical storms, hurricanes have impacted your area in the past?
What do the watches and warnings from NHC mean?
What is storm surge? Graphics explain the deadly weather event
Hurricane warning: A hurricane warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
Hurricane watch: A hurricane watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
Tropical storm warning: A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
Tropical storm watch: An announcement that sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph are possible within the specified area within 48 hours in association with a tropical, subtropical, or post-tropical cyclone.
Storm surge warning: A storm surge warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.
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